Trump thrives on praise and adulation. He can wait no longer to have his rabid supporters once again cheering at big rallies.
Please note Trump Says He’s Ready to Hit the Road.
Mr. Trump told reporters at an event with business executives on Wednesday that he plans to travel to Arizona next week and Ohio soon after that. “We’re going to start to move around,” he said, adding that he hopes to start holding campaign rallies again.
The president, who before the pandemic regularly traveled on weekends to his Florida resort, Mar-a-Lago, and held campaign rallies around the country, has made no secret of his eagerness to get back on the road. “I’ve been in the White House now for many months,” he said. “And I’d like to get out—as much as I love this, this is the most beautiful house in the world.’
He said he wanted to see a “good old-fashioned, 25,000-person rally” without social distancing. “I can’t imagine a rally where you have every fourth seat full, every six seats are empty for everyone that you have full,” he said. “That wouldn’t look too good.”
Counterproductive Adulation
The amusing thing is how counterproductive this plan is.
Adoring fans and big rallies will not win Trump the election in November.
How can that possibly matter?
Sure – Trump’s core is more rabid than Biden’s.
But Sanders could say the same thing.The election will not be won by the rabid fans, but rather the swing voters.https://t.co/EWsZ497s9E https://t.co/gZwXVYs6WK
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) April 29, 2020
Extremely Difficult Setup for Trump to Win in November
Trump faces a huge uphill battle at this point. It’s an Extremely Difficult Setup for Trump to Win in November.
Note that Fox News gives Biden an 8-point lead in Michigan. This is despite (or because) of soaring Michigan unemployment, perhaps as high as 30%.
For details, please see For details, please see Over 25% of Michigan Workforce Filed For Unemployment.
Yet, Despite Massive Unemployment, Michigan Disagrees With Trump.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, has a Covid-19 approval rating of 57%. Liberate Michigan, Liberate Minnesota, and Liberate Virginia backfired.
I discussed the above Tweets in Huge Battle Over Covid-19 Tests and Trump’s Liberation Tweets.
Words of Caution
It’s not impossible for Trump to win in November, but it is difficult.
These polls are early. November is still 6 months away but the election map, Trump’s handing of Covid-19, the recession, and the thought of 4 more years of Trump to swing voters all weigh against Trump.
This is Not 2016
Finally, this is not 2016. Many swing voters gave Trump a nod in in 2016 simply because they despised Hillary.
Many of those same swing voters have had enough of Trump’s divisive treatment of allies, his belittling of everyone but himself, and his handling of Covid-19.
Mish
Gonna be a bloodbath for the republicon party if there’s an election,Trump will not win a single state (not one)if there’s an election.Best bet for el presidente find a reason to cancel postone the election,make something up or pump out the MMT,without it this “election”is over!
I’m gonna go full tinfoil hat here, for giggles:
The rallies are intended to spread covid and make the country collapse, so trump can declare permanent martial law and JaredTron 666 can rule for 10,000 years!
Trump’s Need for Adulation Outweighs ALL OTHER Concerns
…at least for Trump
Not directly related, but remdesivir will help immensely in shortening the illness cycle. Now that they have found something that can slow down Covid-19, more drugs will be developed that are better and very quickly. Vaccines are unrealistic because coronaviruses are also the culprit of the common cold (along with rhinovirus). They’ve been working on a vaccine for the common cold for 30 years but have little to show for it. So expect medicines like remdesivir, which was developed for Ebola and SARS-COV. This is good news for the country because the clinical trial for remdesivir was large and has all the hallmarks of a clinical trial (unlike the chloroquine trial in France). We should all hope this helps get the virus on the run and economy back on its feet, irrespective of who the President is.
Which study did you read? Can you send a link? I can’t find it in all the noise.
Thanks for excellent analysis of how Trump will certainly lose. People are more locked into political views now than they have been in my lifetime so I think little will change before the election. We will also take the Senate and then hopefully implement laws to stop future corrupt Presidents from destroying the rule of law and Democracy, stop voter suppression and self enrichment and nepotism. The Justice department cannot be managed by the President. We have to find a way to ensure that future criminal Presidents cannot destroy the rule of law. It’s been proven multiple times that criminal Presidents can stay in power. We have to abandon the flawed impeachment process and take politicians out of it. They fail every time no matter which party is in charge. How do we disconnect Justice from politicians so that we never find ourselves in this horrible position again? Trump will continue to attack our Democracy long after he loses in November. He will do everything he can to urge his rabid followers to undermine laws and truth and fair elections. He will continue to preach hatred and division and we know he has a big audience for that.
I’m afraid we’re stuck with this without a lot of rewrite (and actual observance of) the constitution. It’s like a really old piece of software, running on a computer 20 generations removed from what it was written on.
It got some updates with the amendments, but ultimately proved too tangled up to modify, and has festered ever since. There are arcane reboot rituals and sticky notes stuck on the monitor with procedures to get it to do things that it was never designed to. Nobody really understands more than the small part of it they need to use.
Hackers are into it now, leveraging constitutional vulnerabilities to rob the country. People have been getting robbed slowly by them for 50 years, and are coming close to scraping bottom.
Doesn’t seem sustainable.
“I’ve had enough of Trump. I’m going to vote for Biden’s female offer.”
What a line of thought…
If America’s guiding light has to one of these brainless old egomanical clowns, her best days lie in the rear view mirror
The rearview mirror was broken off and sold sometime in the 80’s for a little gas money.
By the way, it has come to light that Sheryl Sandberg and Mark Zuckerberg were effectively embedded with the Trump campaign in 2016 and knew of its every move online and on social media. Zuckerberg himself has met with Trump on several occasions during his presidency. This election is nowhere near over and it may not even be decided by the people. Social media pushed Trump into the White House in 2016 and will have a big factor in 2020 as well.
Zuckerberg is clearly a Lizard Person in an ill fitting costume. This is a disturbing development…. it means…. they GOT to trump! Soon they will replace him with a lizard person in a fat suit, and Lord Soros shall step in from the shadows to claim his globalist throne and plunge the faithful into 10,000 years of darkness! Repent!
All glory is fleeting link to youtube.com
Compensation wasn’t bad though, whether end of service pay or land, or simply retirement
Swing voter in the street waits till after Labor Day to make decision.
A LOT will happen in the next 4 – 5 months.
Agree. I think they may even wait until election day. I think there is going to be a massive shift in the economy and voter sentiment between labor day and election day this year.
I think Trump has fallen behind but I don’t think he is toast yet Mish. I expect by late September Covid-19 will have ended and the economy will get back on its feet. I’m no fan of Trump except on 1 issue – limiting foreign labor on visas and changing immigration rules to favor citizens in the job market. I live in a state where my vote for President will be of no consequence and so I may be a single issue voter come November. I vowed not to vote for Trump a couple of months ago but I am an independent and my mind can be changed based solely on favoring citizens for jobs and in the labor market overall. I think in swing states there are a lot of voters like me. I heard the Trump campaign has identified 120M voters that are undecided. They need 70M of these in select states to win again. Remember in 2016, that Trump won by a large margin electorally. Biden will struggle because of his party not himself. They do not favor citizens in many aspects of the job and labor market and this may be their undoing. The Trump campaign knows this and will pivot to immigration and jobs again. That is the issue that hits home with most Americans.
Economies generally don’t go 0 to 60 that fast. I am not saying it can’t happen, it just generally doesn’t, too much inertia in an economy the size of the US. It was headed for a downturn before the pandemic. The fed is going to need to keep the foot on the gas, we could definitely see a bear steepener in rates if things pick up.
It won’t be hard to get back to 1% GDP growth. That will be enough to make things feel better. We went from 3% to -6% so it is possible to go in the other direction just as quickly. I expect Q4 GDP to be positive. This is not a credit cycle induced recession. If 9/11 had happen without a recession already happening, that is what this is like. That recovery took longer because we were already in a recession in 2001 and the recovery took longer because of the tech bubble.
Delusional. Wishful. Thinking
When were we 3%?
Q1 2019. Real gdp was 3%. When you do comparisons you have to compare the same quarters.
In the last election, I left the president box “blank”. I don’t like the choice of voting for the less of 2 nutjobs/criminals.
Based on what I am seeing, Trump only has about a 20% chance… we will be in an official depression (no pres candidate has been elected after even a mild recession), C19 will be back on the radar, a vaccine still months/years away and 30ish million will still be unemployed – people will want change no matter person is.
Wait until the campaign starts in earnest and they start showing clips of Creepy Joe sniffing girls’ hair, bragging about his quid pro quo, etc. Plus the new revelations of his Slick Willy style sex attacks.
So what if he acts like a bigger than life buffoon, he will put the right people in the judiciary and other countries are not going to mess with him militarily. Biden can do no better, he has dementia and will be a puppet.
Trump is a leader in the aspect that he inspires confidence.
We can’t deny that his constant pumping is what took the stock market up. He also has pumped then”recovery”.
His confidence is second to none. I will give him that.
Confidence? In China maybe. For the USA, trump is a clown show crossed with a disaster movie.
Yes except his confidence has extra capitalization:
CONfidence.
Yeah no one can disagree on this. I think this is why he still has a shot. His optimism and confidence is unparalleled in presidential history.
confidence without knowledge is nothing more than delusional wishful thinking.
“We are here and it is now. Further than that, all human knowledge is moonshine.” H. L. Mencken
Yes indeed, I would have to strongly agree that Trump is certainly the Ultimate Confidence Man … in the old-fashioned connotation of course …