Dilemma for Democrats
It’s very clear that president Biden is no longer capable of speaking without help. Aids constantly have to correct his mistakes. And his communications director is the worst ever.
Even the extremely liberal New York Times notes At 79, Biden Is Testing the Boundaries of Age and the Presidency
Just a year and a half into his first term, Mr. Biden is already more than a year older than Ronald Reagan was at the end of two terms. If he mounts another campaign in 2024, Mr. Biden would be asking the country to elect a leader who would be 86 at the end of his tenure, testing the outer boundaries of age and the presidency.
He often shuffles when he walks, and aides worry he will trip on a wire. He stumbles over words during public events, and they hold their breath to see if he makes it to the end without a gaffe.
Although White House officials insist they make no special accommodations the way Reagan’s team did, privately they try to guard Mr. Biden’s weekends in Delaware as much as possible.
Dr. Kevin C. O’Connor, the president’s physician, pronounced him “a healthy, vigorous 78-year-old male who is fit to successfully execute the duties of the presidency.”
Questions about Mr. Biden’s fitness have nonetheless taken a toll on his public standing. In a June survey by Harvard’s Center for American Political Studies and the Harris Poll, 64 percent of voters believed he was showing that he is too old to be president, including 60 percent of respondents 65 or older.
Mr. Biden’s public appearances have fueled that perception. His speeches can be flat and listless. He sometimes loses his train of thought, has trouble summoning names or appears momentarily confused. More than once, he has promoted Vice President Kamala Harris, calling her “President Harris.”
During his European trip last month, foreign leaders followed his lead while protectively treating him like a distinguished elderly relative. At a photo opportunity, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany gently pointed Mr. Biden in the direction of the cameras.
Should Biden Run?
The answer is no. Even Democrats accept that. But I wonder if he can make it two more years.
The midterms rate to be a disaster for the Democrats. There will undoubtedly be some pressure on Biden to step down.
But that would make Kamala Harris president. Do Democrats want her to be the nominee in 2024?
If Biden does last two more years, there would be an open primary. If Harris is president, I expect challengers to appear anyway.
This is a dilemma of Democrats making. Harris was a piss poor choice for VP. Indeed, it’s likely that Harris was a factor that kept the election close.
Republicans’ Dilemma
In a bipartisan effort by me to annoy everyone, Republicans have a dilemma as well. It’s called Trump.
Curiously, Democrats want the former President front and center in the election, and Trump agrees.
Donald Trump and the Midterms
Please consider the Wall Street Journal article Donald Trump and the Midterms.
Donald Trump’s whisperers are saying he may soon announce his plans to run for President in 2024, and Democrats are keeping their fingers crossed that he does. Since his surprising victory in 2016, Mr. Trump has been the main cause of Democratic electoral success.
All the usual signs say this should be an excellent election year for Republicans, perhaps an historic one. The polls show some 75% of the public thinks the country is moving in the wrong direction. President Biden’s job approval rating is under 38% in the Real Clear Politics composite index, and 33% in the latest Siena/New York Times survey.
Enter Mr. Trump, who may announce his presidential candidacy before the midterms, which we can’t recall a major candidate doing. The former President’s advisers say he may do this so soon because he doesn’t like the attention other potential candidates are getting.
That would thrill Democrats, who are eager to change the subject from inflation and the Biden record. They timed their Jan. 6 committee hearings for mid-2022 to remind everyone about Mr. Trump’s behavior and wrap him around GOP candidates.
Republicans would have to play defense rather than focus on the Biden- Nancy Pelosi – Chuck Schumer record. This is what cost the GOP the two Georgia Senate seats in January 2021 as Mr. Trump dampened GOP turnout by telling voters the presidential race was stolen.
Mr. Trump’s meddling in primaries has already hurt GOP chances of taking back the Senate. His vendetta against Doug Ducey kept the Arizona Governor from running for the Senate, though Mr. Ducey would have been the strongest candidate against Sen. Mark Kelly.
Mr. Trump’s preferred candidates in key states are struggling or close in the polls despite the favorable GOP trends. Mehmet Oz is trailing left-wing Democrat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania. Herschel Walker is a rookie candidate showing his inexperience in Georgia. and Rep. Ted Budd is barely ahead in North Carolina. As in 2010, Democrats could prevail against a slate of weak GOP candidates.
Glenn Youngkin was able to win the statehouse in Virginia in part because Mr. Trump largely stayed out of the race.
But that was a rare exception, and Mr. Trump typically can’t help himself. He wants to be the center of attention all the time, and the media are all too happy to oblige.
Which brings us back to this week’s Siena/New York Times poll. For all of its bad news for Mr. Biden, he still beats Mr. Trump 44%-41% in a theoretical 2024 presidential rematch. What does it say that Joe Biden, the least popular President in modern times, still beats Donald Trump?
Curious Politics
Curiously, the liberal New York Times is questioning Biden’s capabilities just as the conservative WSJ is questioning Trump.
Republicans will of course dismiss any polls that show Trump losing to Biden, again. But both articles are correct. Trump’s vendetta will do Republicans no good.
It likely contributed to Republicans the Senate in 2020. Instead of graciously campaigning for two Georgia senators, Trump was preposterously focused on “Stop the Steal”.
And in Arizona, Trump kept a very strong Arizona Governor from running for the Senate. If Democrats win the Arizona Senate seat up for grabs in 2022, blame Trump.
Although Republicans are overwhelmingly likely to take back the House in 2022, Trump’s vendetta may cost Republicans the Senate for the second consecutive election.
Love Trump if you want. No one can stop you. But there is at best a messy outcome for Republicans if Trump does decide to run.
Trump will not run unopposed, splintering will be huge, and swing voters may again decide against Trump if he wins the nomination.
I suspect Trump will not run or will back out if he does run.
Have I Upset Nearly Everyone Yet?
I suspect I have upset the Trump fans, the Biden fans, and the Harris fans. But that’s not nearly enough.
Democrats need to stay away from Progressive basket cases like Senator Elizabeth Warren. And I would advise Republicans to also stay away from lightning rods like Senator Ted Cruz.
The future is none of the above aging dinosaurs nor the radical Progressives.
Does that offend nearly everyone yet? If not, I tried.
Spotlight Italy, UK, France
No one is happy about inflation anywhere.
In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson Resigned and a leadership battle is underway.
Tory MPs hold votes eliminating one candidate at a time until only two candidates remain. Then the full party membership votes between the two.
In France, For the First Time in Decades, a French President Loses Majority in Parliament
There’s a Crisis in Italy After the President Rejects Prime Minister Draghi’s Resignation
Of the above, the situation in Italy is the most critical. It could conceivably lead to a breakup of the Eurozone.
A Purple US Future?
We need a genuinely middle-of-the road candidate who supports small government, less military spending, someone who is socially liberal but anti-woke, someone who has far more modest goals on climate, and someone who focuses on the USA and stops meddling everywhere else.
I believe any candidate with those values would be elected in a landslide. But there are at least two problems with my vision of purple.
- In the current poisoned atmosphere, nominations tend to go to lightning rods and radicals. 2016 was a perfect example. Trump ran against Hillary, arguably the only person he could beat.
- Even if my ideal purple candidate was nominated, the House and Senate are unlikely to follow. So it may be hard to get much done.
Gerrymandering in both Red and Blue states favors radicals in both parties.
Unfortunately, the current extreme polarization setup could last until my Baby Boomer generation is long gone.
Disastrous Fed Policies and Reckless Spending
Polarization is a symptom of the problem, not the problem itself.
Increasing polarization is what disastrous Fed policies and reckless military and social spending by both parties have done.
President Biden wants more reckless spending including free childcare, free education, and massive inflationary green energy policies.
Fortunately, Senator Manchin Finally Kills Biden’s Build Back Better Initiative
Unfortunately, both parties united once again to approve more military spending than the defense department and White House even requested.
Compromise in Washington always results in more spending. And despite what they say, both parties support more war.
For discussion, please see House Authorizes More Military Spending Than Biden and the Defense Department Requested
Stop! Just stop!
This post originated at MishTalk.Com.
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Mish
healthy, vigorous 78-year-old male who is fit to successfully execute
the duties of the presidency.”
The fact that both Biden and Trump are too old, too corrupt and too incompetent demonstrates that the 2 party system has failed us. Dave Smith 2024!
The kooks are thick today.
If I were the Repubs, I’d want my ’24 ticket to be DeSantis and either Noem of SD, Youngkin of VA, or Sears of NC as the running mate. The Dems won’t stand a chance. Trump would be a clusterfu*k. And it might happen; never underestimate either party’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. If the Repubs are smart for a change, they’ll realize that they have a rare chance to control all three branches into the 2040s.
But there is no name of a viable candidate … and nobody believes this polarization & extreme position taking dynamic is about to turn.
My biggest complaint is that he made cigars popular, causing huge price spikes on my faves. LOL
Obama is the last functional adult president we had. The last on that didn’t make me embarrassed to be American when he went on stage.
The Dems know she’s unqualified, but the last time they dumped a sitting VP was in 1952 when they picked Stevenson over Truman’s veep, Barkley. No way could they do that again. They’d split apart over the “racism” of it all. Alas, they’re stuck with her. I’d hate to see the Repubs pick Trump, but if it happens I think he’ll kick her up one side of the block and back down the other.