Cause of Recessions
Let’s Be Clear.
Many suggest recessions happen due to Fed tightening.
Incorrect.
Recessions happen AFTER bubbles created by extreme Fed loose policies are blown to be systemic. Recessions happen due to tightening TOO LATE. pic.twitter.com/N1iNyZtA4n
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) June 4, 2018
Correct. Loose policies, not tightening cause recessions. The Fed forever chases its tail causing boom bust cycles of increasing amplitude.
Hussman on Employment Contribution to GDP
Without the contribution a falling unemployment rate, U.S. real GDP growth will increasingly reflect the structural trend in red. GDP will likely slow to an average growth rate below 2%, even assuming sustained low unemployment, a bounce in productivity, and no recession. pic.twitter.com/pgCS7ZVmai
— John P. Hussman, Ph.D. (@hussmanjp) June 4, 2018
78 Million Sideline Job Hustles
If the U.S. economy is so great, why are 78 million hustling for dimes? https://t.co/51rpMsGb9N by @RexNutting $QQQ $DIA pic.twitter.com/2yYYRO40g2
— Jesse Colombo (@TheBubbleBubble) June 4, 2018
The Dow
The Dow has not closed below its 200-day moving average in almost 2 years, the 7th longest run in history. $DJIA pic.twitter.com/JB72fdR0ko
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) June 4, 2018
CNBC Analysis
— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) June 4, 2018
Valuations
S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review: https://t.co/0nc4xas7mw by @Techs_Global $SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/PC0EHIwBzc
— Jesse Colombo (@TheBubbleBubble) June 4, 2018
Rosenberg on Pigs
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie/status/1003682886602674176
Larry Kudlow labels this the ‘prosperity era’. Rather, it is the mother of all credit expansions. The debt bubble this cycle makes a mockery of 2003-07. We know how these end. Only pigs wait for the peak.
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) June 4, 2018
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Huge numbers of people have criminal records (13% of the adult male population) and fail drug tests (25%). You won’t hear Trump mouthing off about either of these issues.
The problem with inflation statistics is that the govt now uses a completely different metric than was used in the 70-80s. Current figures way understate the real life numbers. If we used the same metrics as we did back then the inflation numbers would be a lot higher.
I live in MI not a mecca and the cost of living/housing is average I see help wanted signs everywhere. Ask any builder and they need labaorers as well as skilled tradesman. Many decent paying factory jobs here. Landscapers pay$13/hour to start and the only people willing to take the job are Mexicans. No domesic workers wil take the jobs. Part of the problem may be that many workers in marginal paying jobs limit their hours so they can still get free govt medicaid health insurance coverage. If they exceed an income threshold they lose it. One fix would be national health care that covers everyone. This I believe would entice people into the workforce if they didn’t have to worry about health insurance. Thats a debate for another day however. Unskilled jobs are not meant to support a family they are a starting point in the workforce. A lot of people dont get that. In capitalism you are incentivised to make more money by being more producive.
1979 all over again,soaring INFLATION,van mccoy ,platforms are even makin a comeback.
Where are they looking for workers? When I go back to my hometown (rural Ohio) it seems everyone is sitting around doing nothing. Anyone with even modest ambition made tracks long ago.
If employers want to congregate in select cities (which tend to be very expensive, like where I live now) and/or pay lowball wages, they can look forever to no avail.
Even according to BLS stats wages are still stagnant. If unemployment is so low, why aren’t wages rising? Why are workers choosing to ignore their leverage if they are so valuable? Also bear in mind that corporations have not been above crying wolf so they can lobby for more H1Bs like Bill Gates did for many years. Those dumb Americans, they avoided Microsoft jobs for decades!
If the unemployment data is wrong why are so many business looking for workers. There is currently a shortage of skilled and unskilled labor.
Don’t tell that to some of the people here, they consider 3.8% to be undisputed fact no matter how much BLS manipulation is explained. Back in the ’80s and ’90s you had to fiddle with the metrics to torture the data, now you just lop swaths of people off the labor force entirely and call it a day. So much easier!
The real unemployment rate is off the charts. I never dreamed our governmental statistics would become this big of a farce.
‘
impossible to calculate US GDP without factoring in China’s GDP
Long-term structural trend of negative GDP growth since the ’60’s. And one wonders why income has stagnated for the working classes.