Reflections on 10-Year Yields
U.S. 10-year yields are more than 1 percentage point higher than global yields, a level that typically can’t last too long. @queenofchartz pic.twitter.com/3h7HjmgVvj
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) May 18, 2018
Italy
Berenberg’s Schmieding: #Italy will have to choose: It either lives by the rules, which can be interpreted w/ flexibility, & shapes up over time – or it will have to bear consequences of remaining EZ laggard. Whether Italy maintains pol will to stay in euro is key long-term issue pic.twitter.com/e1mypL9v6N
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) May 18, 2018
IPO Earnings
Over 80% Of 2017 IPOs Had ‘Negative’ Earnings – Most Since Dot-Com Peak https://t.co/nUFGBgVrlQ
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 20, 2018
Emerging Markets
McCullough: Emerging Markets Can Get ‘A Lot Worse’ https://t.co/qAH1U6DZbx vía @hedgeye
— Jose Maria Luna (@LunaJoseM) May 18, 2018
Emerging Market Sudden Stop
In my blog “Behold The Sudden Stop. Risk of Emerging Markets Collapse”, I argue that the recent collapse of the #argentinepeso is an indication of a wider issue; the coming of a sudden stop in #usinvestment to #emergingmarkets. https://t.co/gZHSnsYC4Q pic.twitter.com/JVyFj2xjic
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) May 18, 2018
Russell 2000 Breakup Bullish?
The R2K Conundrum – the recent breakout of the Russell 2000 may not be as bullish as it seems. Very good read from Peter Cook, CFA. @michaellebowitz https://t.co/4G4GqA5H6s pic.twitter.com/CxpiQo3D6l
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) May 18, 2018
Demographics
Demographics are inescapably powerful. Trends toward later marriage & fewer babies are longstanding, but one consequence of a deep recession felt disproportionately by millenials is the absence of any cyclical uptick in the birth rate#Japan #MillennialTalk #housing pic.twitter.com/dhNE2CPb2p
— Julia Coronado (@jc_econ) May 17, 2018
Euro Bond Spreads
The spread on 10-year government bond yields from the Euro zone periphery over German Bunds has risen this month. But in the grand scheme of things, spreads are still incredibly low, something quite notable given that ECB QE is likely ending later this year. pic.twitter.com/kVLvREtW47
— Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) May 19, 2018
Credit Card Delinquencies
Credit Card Delinquencies Spike Past Financial-Crisis Peak https://t.co/pG120kJj8g
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 20, 2018
Plenty to think about.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Una tarjeta de crédito puede hacerte la vida mucho más fácil. Lo principal es elegir la tarjeta que más le convenga y usarla correctamente link to creditosenlinea.co. Puede usar una tarjeta de crédito de muchas maneras. Puede ser una billetera de plástico en la que simplemente se almacena dinero. O tal vez una herramienta de pago conveniente que haga que sus pagos sean seguros e incluso rentables.
What about the stories about Japanese seniors purposely commiting crimes in order to be jailed because they are unable to take care of themselves.
I agree with Tengen. Countries should take a closer look at letting populations just shrink in developed nations with low birth rates, instead of flooding the country with immigrants from the 3rd world. Japan does exactly this, and its a great place, been there many times. Let nature correct population imbalances naturally. I think “quality of life” has got much worse in many parts of the USA due to pop growth (traffic, ruining natural environments with sprawl, crime, tribalism, polarization, astronomical real estate prices and rents, etc…).
Disagree strongly about Japan being our (American) future. They are a cohesive society and if benefits were suddenly cut on a wide scale, there would be a little grumbling but nothing more. People there still believe in a societal “greater good”.
Some of our economic indicators may be similar to theirs, but the people themselves couldn’t be much more different. In times of strife, that matters a lot.
Not saying you’re wrong, but the situation in China and the ME is a bit different. In the ME the women are there but the young men are denied access. In that case civil unrest could produce results. In China, the women simply aren’t there. The men could lash out anyway but nothing would come from it.
So far, Chinese men haven’t emigrated as much as ME men either. Will be interesting to see if the PRC government pushes that angle to Africa or elsewhere.
@Maximus Yep, there can potentially be big benefits to lower population density, but of course the economists and their ilk will fight it tooth and nail. The ponzi needs fuel and increased wages from labor scarcity is never what they want.
Regarding credit card tweet – this is flip side of ‘too big to fail’ , ie. ‘too insignificant to be in business’. A business model based on lending to people none of the 100 largest banks would touch? The problem is not the borrowers at the margins, the problem is these tiny banks existing in the first place ….
“The younger members eventually get fed up with the situation and expel or murder those older members of the group who are in control.” That’s why more advanced primates developed propaganda, smokescreen, and early life mind control.
@Tengen ” We still don’t know what the long term effects of tens of millions of men who mathematically cannot find brides will be.”
Actually we probably do know what those effects will be. Look at the countries of the Middle East where young men can not find brides because they can not find jobs. The long term effects are violence and civic disruption. Turns out this is a genetic imperative. Folks who study groups of primates see the same kind of behavior. The younger members eventually get fed up with the situation and expel or murder those older members of the group who are in control.
Regarding demographics; the lower the population density the better. More environmentally sustainable life, more options even if the economy tanks. Population decline follows closely the decline in economic opportunities for the younger generation; thanks to masters of globalization, and robotization. All countries with high birth rates, and backward economy are hellholes (insert your favorite Trumpism), that everybody wants to escape. This theory likely doesn’t feature in your favorite economic fake book.
Regarding demographics, there is a big silver lining to lower birth rates/higher marriage ages since it’s the pin mostly likely to pop the ridiculous “infinite growth in a finite world” bubble. Also, I’d take demographics like Japan’s over China’s or India’s any day. Low birth rates are OK, but a massive gender imbalance is no joke. We still don’t know what the long term effects of tens of millions of men who mathematically cannot find brides will be.
We may as well learn to love birth rates in the US, since catering to only uber-rich and those on public assistance will not change. Marriage as beneficial to women/detrimental to men will also not change anytime soon, too big an industry around divorce.