Expect No Miracles
The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut Tuesday to help the economy in the fight against the coronavirus. But @jdlahart explains why the central bank’s move is no miracle cure. #WSJWhatsNow https://t.co/2WfqFZsI6G pic.twitter.com/D4jktBwzBz
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) March 3, 2020
Tests That Work Coming Any Year Now
Didn’t China have a cheap test that worked over a month ago? https://t.co/kGp0R6fDr0
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) March 3, 2020
Sideline Cash Error Yet Again
There is no money pouring into or out of anything.
In fact, it is mathematically impossible because for every buyer there is a seller.
That assessment is a sideline cash type of error that @hussmanjp and I continually fight. https://t.co/bwIsvXqlV0
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) March 3, 2020
Spring Break As Usual
Miami’s spring break events over the coming weeks are set to go as scheduled, despite concerns about the coronavirus spreading https://t.co/o2XkhIz5pH
— Bloomberg (@business) March 3, 2020
22 Iranian MPs Have the Coronavirus
Coronavirus: Iran says 23 MPs have disease.@lindseyhilsum reports:https://t.co/Zvbl1AjToF
— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) March 3, 2020
Leaked Footage of Iranian Hospital
Leaked footage of an Iranian hospital…https://t.co/4GRYAq8hkk
— Dave Collum (@DavidBCollum) March 3, 2020
Only Just Begun
Only just begun. https://t.co/CJxbGE5ElT
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) March 3, 2020
Fed Doesn’t Know Anything
The Fed doesn’t know a damn thing, and never did.
They are a bunch of group think central planners who need a roadmap to find each other’s asses. https://t.co/zcgeexDEwk
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) March 3, 2020
What About Bitcoin?
Good grief. Bitcoin is not correlated to anything. https://t.co/6wUiPh9lP9
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) March 3, 2020
Plenty of Seats to Seattle
Just checked the seat map for my flight to Seattle. Over half the seats are available.
— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) March 3, 2020
UPS and Fedex Warning
https://twitter.com/kr3at/status/1234947884526817281
Deflationary Shock Coming
I called this long ago in a Tweet debate.
I expect a deflationary shock due to falling demand. https://t.co/ndfqviAVHk— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) March 3, 2020
New York Subway Sanitization
https://twitter.com/kr3at/status/1234948447909883904
About Those Interest rates
One look at the national debt and interest on the national debt explains all https://t.co/dFjqD37ETm
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) March 3, 2020
Level 4 Threat In New England
NHS ENGLAND HAS DECLARED CORONAVIRUS A “LEVEL 4 INCIDENT” WHICH IS THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF EMERGENCY- SKY NEWS
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 3, 2020
Recession Alarm in Germany
Recession alarm for #Germany. More and more experts expect the German economy to shrink this year due to coronavirus risks. https://t.co/2YqJJfLFUn via @welt pic.twitter.com/DNj7SpYSDM
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) March 3, 2020
What About Mike Pence?
#BREAKING🚨 A Florida student whose classmates shook hands last Friday with VP Pence has been quarantined after his mom came into contact with a #Coronavirus patient.
But since you claim it’s all a hoax, no worries!👍🏼https://t.co/YSsf0UL3uE
— ʝɛŋ🪷 (@jennerific713) March 3, 2020
Twitter Tells Employees to Stay Home
Whether it’s the number of #CoronaVirus infections and fatalities, countries reporting their first cases, travel/conferences being cancelled, or companies taking preventive actions (such as @Twitter below), there is no letup as yet to the spread of economic contractionary effects pic.twitter.com/ovkreBOrkA
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) March 3, 2020
No Surprise for Some
Congrats to Jim Bianco @biancoresearch for outright predicting this headline: Federal Reserve Cuts Rates by Half Percentage Point
I few weeks ago I suggested the Fed was likely to do this but Bianco predicted they would.https://t.co/Wu2zDNrPaM
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) March 3, 2020
Jim Bianco – Whole New Ballgame
My latest column about the Fed cut today.
I will be on Bloomberg TV at 3:30PM ET talking about it.https://t.co/JAHha2yrIt
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) March 3, 2020
Important Thread by Sketchy Lady on CDC Blatant Incompetence
Tweet Header from Sketchy Lady@into_the_brush
- I live in Seattle, I have all symptoms of COVID-19 and have a history of chronic bronchitis. Since I work in a physical therapy clinic with many 65+ patients and those with chronic illnesses, I decided to be responsible and go to get tested. This is how that went.
- I called the Corona hotline, was on hold for 40 minutes and gave up. So I looked at the CDC and Washington public health websites. They told me to see a primary care doctor, but there’s no information about testing.
- I called 2 primary care doctors. One told me they don’t know where to get testing, and that I should not to seek out testing. The other one told me to go to an urgent care or ER. I called the Urgent Care, they also had no idea where tests are, but told me to call the hospital.
- I called the hospital. They do not have tests, but transferred me to the COVID-19 hotline to “answer my questions”. Since I was transferred on a medical provider line, I actually got through. Progress!
- The lady with the hotline was very kind and professional and understood my concern about my own health and those at my clinic. (Which is currently being sanitized). However, I was told I do not qualify for testing. And I was not given a timeline or info on current resources.
- So. Who does qualify? Those who have been out of the country in the last 14 days, and those who have had contact with one of the few people who have been tested and come up positive. That’s it.
- This is all incredibly frustrating because I am trying to do everything right in a system that punishes moments of “weakness” like taking days off. It’s also scary to know that I won’t be able to get help until I need life support.
- To sum up: this is not contained. No one knows what the fuck is happening. I can’t work. WASH YOUR F**KING HANDS.
- Ah f*ck! Didn’t realize there was a hashtag just for lil ol’ me! Check out above thread ️ CoronaVirusSeattle
- Since this is getting attention. COVID-19 HOTLINE: 1-800-525-0127 DON’T CALL unless you are experiencing all symptoms or have been exposed to a case. Leave the lines open to people who need it most. Any other questions can be answered on the CDC, WHO, or WA public health sites.
The above Tweet chain is all you need to see to understand the CDC and FDA are run by idiots.
Why can’t hospitals decide on their own who to test?
This is blatantly idiotic.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Breaking: L.A. County is live at this moment with a press conference to announce a state of emergency, with 6 new cases of COVID-19.
“Fed Doesn’t Know Anything”
Well, they do know hot to create financial bubbles and distort markets.
“Twitter Tells Employees to Stay Home”
Haven’t heard of any prohibition of the public attending basketball games at the Staples Center in L.A., yet. Bernie had a rally at the Convention Center on Sunday. Still business as usual.
Will Seattle be our first Wuhan?
LONG TERM SEQUELAE OF SARS VIRUS
I read above an interesting research bearing on SARS recovered patients as an answer to MAXIMUN_MINIMUS query.
I know what a chronic lung edema is as I live with that for more than two years now because of my hearth congenital failure.
It is life threatening and in order not to suffocate at night, you need at least a positive air pressure breathing device ( and oxygen from time to time)
. You can only try to keep the edema under control by using diuretics, avoid salt and have a correct weight and diet.
If like for SARS one quarter of covid-19 (not proved so far) “cured” people keep such sequelae than I wish good luck to them.
So be careful to not accept (without proof) the propositions of the Happy idiots who say that it is like a severe flu. Avoid taking risks.
The first best step is over here in Europe to stop immediately this new age habit of kissing friends (and relative) cheeks and shaking hands of others.
For the rest of the measures WHO and CDC are there ( sometimes too late because all these confinement measures kill the bubble economy) to save you.
Everywhere in the world now (and severily in Europe) Italy has become a second main infector. Why? Apparently, because 300.000 Chinese from a province near Wuhan freely moving from Italy to China were never quarantined in Italy side.
Infection symptoms are signals (inflammatory by essence) initiated and created by our global immune system detecting locally (abnormal proteins appearing in a cell) cell invader and destroyer like the coronavirus as an example. This virus appear (Chinese claims) to have in many cases the possibility to hide its firsts cells invasion trough proteins similar to the ones of the corona HIV virus . Hence this astonishing long range of incubation periodpattern.
.When such virus and or an opportunistic bacteria (septicemia) and or an opportunistic mold kill too many of our cells in a row because our immune system get overwhelmed, we normally die of a toxic shock caused by an overload of cell debris in the whole organism. Here with this coronavirus, The lungs but also the Liver, kidneys stop functioning in the fatal cases.
Will there be a deadcat bounce or V shaped recovery in the near term?
L Shape
End result of all of this will be total loss of CON-fidence in hopelessly incompetent, corrupt government and the so-called “money” emitted from-thin-air in the $Trillions by their de-facto fiscal agent, the Federal Reserve.
Prepare yourselves accordingly.
“End result of all of this will be total loss of CON-fidence in hopelessly incompetent, corrupt government and the so-called “money” emitted from-thin-air in the $Trillions by their de-facto fiscal agent, the Federal Reserve.”
If only…. Indoctrination remain the one sole thing the dunces seem to have gotten right….
Hopefully, people will realize depending on ‘government’ to solve problems is to put incompetent agencies in charge. Look at the Fed, the FDA, CDC. Have they done anything right?
It’s called The Age of Incompetence.
Every larger organization in America, is ran by complete idiots by now. And every piece of America is “owned” by ditto.
Runaway government, and central bank, enabled abject morons, pretty much every one of them.
You can count on them very loudly and confidently pontificating about things way above their brain grade, though. And how “we” are the greatest (As if the “greatest” anything would have any use for their kind of retarded rabble…). And then, they’ll scream for “The Law” to “find” something and “deem” someone, and The Fed to print more; in order to bail them out when they are wrong. Which they are about absolutely every single thing they have ever undertaken. Without exception. Period. As that’s what being utterly incompetent at everything, is all about.
Everyone wants to get ahead, not do their jobs. Start projects, make a big show and get promoted. Let the next guy worry about doing it right. Repeat.
A lot of people aren’t even allowed to do their jobs or work in their professions. 2 out of 3 US citizen STEM graduates can’t find jobs in their fields of study, yet foreign nationals are brought in by the planeload. The US citizens not even considered for those jobs. SFO arrivals looks like some scene of a foreign country, not the United States.
You won’t find such foreign born, non-citizen diversity in the public sector, such as public school teachers, fire and police departments, insurance companies, the law office, dockworkers, etc. The foreign born non-citizens are only brought in to do the real dirty work at these locations and typically under the guise of “contracted work” done by a native born “minority” or female owned entity who speaks the language of their employees.
No, just low wage labor and the technical sector are the only two groups who compete in the world market in this country. Everyone else rides their coat tails and like to pat themselves on their back for being so woke because they are so receptive to the open border concept.
Well, like everyone else these days, the FED board is worried about their reputation, not running the FED. If they did nothing they’d get vilified. If the rate cut does nothing, they’ll make it a point to mention how much worse it would have been had they not cut.
What’s the point of testing? They don’t have a known treatment for the condition. So anyone who is symptomatic should be assumed to have it. A specific diagnosis is not required.
Check out Singapore’s response – aggressive testing and contact tracing. The average incubation period is 14 days before the onset of symptoms, and someone can be shedding the virus before showing symptoms. To slow the spread, you need to have robust testing and quarantine of those infected.
The average incubation is estimated closer to 3-5 days, with 14 days being the very high end….
East Asian countries so far seem to be the ones doing the best job of handling the outbreak. With South Korea perhaps being the outlier; seemingly more concerned about contemporary Western style petty point scoring by “holding accountable” anything from Chinese immigrants to Churches, than on just chopping away at the virus with all they’ve got.
That China, which was far and away hit the hardest, managed to get in front of the virus and put a lid on it, is a big, big confidence booster. That’s what affords them the confidence to now start normalizing activity again: They have proven they can beat it back if push come to shove again, hence can afford to relax things a bit.
Yes, you might be right on incubation period – the data is confusing. The official range of incubation appears to be 2 to 14 days, with a mean of between 3 to 5 days and a few possible outliers at 24 and 27 days. Who knows?
Yes, that absolutely is possible. Though it won’t be 100% successful, it will identify some potentially infected people, and allow them to be quarantined. The more you can slow the virus tat this point, the more time you have to develop a vaccine, so yes, it’s worth it. Within a month there will be too many cases, and it will no longer be possible, but for now it still is.
That approach assumes every flu or cold is nCov. It follows therefore that everyone should act as if that were the case, that epidemic was present.
So, with your suggestion, everyone is now going to quarantine and cities will be locked down as of now. Oh, why aren’t they :/ . Oh, why isn’t government locking down on those assumptions :/ .
However, your idea is not as stupid as it seems, because at personal level we should (and will be) that cautious.
Also, it asks “Why not lockdown the country now for two weeks, to segregate out all infected” , it might be a smaller price to pay, as would have been quarantining all travel in. The problem is that the virus would find its way to the country somehow, inevitably – but much less frequently.
So, if you start with a clean quarantined country, higher levels of precaution, and testing any symptoms immediately, plus random tests, you might even catch and isolate any outbreaks that would occur.
Expect a lot more management of society in future, but we will have the failure of the initial reaction, its casualties, also, to remind us why. I guess people would have complained at national quarantine.
In Italy they are now considering closing all schools.
Also, doctors need to know what illnesses they are dealing with, they have to know how many beds to prepare for example, or if not nCov then what other treatment is available.
….and they did just close all schools and universities in Italy.
…though now not officialised the Italian press is reporting it as such. E.g. Corriere dela serra web translate
“
It is a very drastic measure, the Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte is aware of this. But the Corriere’s decision to close all Italian schools and universities starting tomorrow, Thursday 5 March, until mid-March has been taken. The official announcement will come after the last go-ahead from the scientific committee. Obviously the theme is the slowing down of the contagion also in the South of the Country, where the cases so far found are fewer than in the North, to strengthen intensive care by increasing places. For Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia Romagna this is the third week of school closure. Is the school closed? “It would be an unprecedented decision, but the priority is public health,” says the president of the national Presidi association Antonello Giannelli.
The decision formalized in the next few hours
Even if Education Minister Lucia Azzolina is cautious – “the decision will be formalized in the next few hours,” his spokesman explains to the Corriere – now distance learning, which MIUR had relaunched with a dedicated task force and site, will become fundamental not to interrupt the didactic continuity. Schools that have not yet equipped themselves can also rely on Ilaria Capua, who has launched a project to support institutes in technological adaptation but also to inform everyone on the developments and characteristics of the epidemic.”
Meanwhile UK has been doing testing and are just picking up background infection starting now. The testing is still limited to under 20 000 but it gives an idea. Via Sky today
“…we are modelling this out quite carefully, from the time that we get established transmission in the UK… which I think at this time is more likely than not.
“Then there will be a number of weeks, probably about six weeks before we start to see a significant amount of transmission in the UK.””
I’m not in a position to question their modelling because I don’t know how it is done. A coarse criticism is that if you have around 50 in 20 000 with nCov , multiplied by 3000 to reach whole population and you will already have an epidemic now, not in six weeks. I expect they apply some sensible filters to the sampling, but I also think six weeks is very generous, and that there will be many more cases now in UK already, possibly thousands, at least hundreds and expanding.
How many influenza outbreaks prompted the Fed to make an emergency 50 Basis point rate cut?
How many times throughout history has the economy been so financialized and “just-in-time”-ized? We saw what happened when there was a slight disruption to overnight funding in 2008 — and the economy is almost certainly dramatically more reliant on such today.
Government at its best.
Gee what would happen if all the old fossils power mongers in DC, got infected with Covid-19? Say, there just might be a silver lining here!
You are absolutely right… “for every buyer there is a seller”, which means for every there is a buyer. I sell 1000 shares of CMA and right on the threshold, Comerica buys it. It works for a while.
which means for every “seller” there is a buyer. (Edit in)
I’ve read a virologist describing some details about the affects of the corona virus: blood, blood plasma and other elements of blood cause pulmonary edema so that the human can’t breathe and dies.
But what I haven’t heard is, how do those fare those that “recover”.
I know of a case with similar lung issues (not corona, bacterial), and that person has trouble breathing ever since. You might be able to limp, but not run.
Does anybody have more details on this?
Sars sequelae are maybe the closest, I don’t know. I don’t think it has been able to be studied yet . Here is SARS
Thanks. This is as good as it gets at this time (pun unintended), and largely confirms my suspicion.
Here is an account from Italy of a patients experience of the virus, it is informative. I web translated it and pasted it as text at
with a link to original article at the end, courtesy Corriere Della Sera.
Thanks. It gets better.