I compiled what follows from a Series of Thirteen Tweets by physician (MD) and scientist (PhD) Dr. Dena Grayson. Emphasis is mine.
- Dr. Dena Grayson: Having YEARS of experience developing an Ebola treatment, I was concerned about this Coronavirus Outbreak from the outset, because this coronavirus strain is very contagious, causes severe illness, and NO treatments or vaccines are available.
- Dr. Dena Grayson: Unlike H5N1 “bird flu” (which does not spread easily between people) or SARS (which was spread by only a handful of “super spreaders”), this coronavirus DOES appear to spread easily between people, even after making the jump from an animal (this is not common).
- Dr. Dena Grayson: In addition to being highly contagious, this novel coronavirus can cause a SEVERE infection that can kill even healthy people. It’s rare to see BOTH of these (bad) attributes in the same novel virus. Usually, it’s one or the other.
- Dr. Dena Grayson: One way experts judge how deadly a pathogen (virus, bacteria, etc) is by the “case-fatality rate,” which is the # of deaths / # infected people. It’s WAY too early to know what this is, because it takes time for patients to succumb to the infection.
- Dr. Dena Grayson: Thus far, the case-fatality rate appears to be ~4%…but its’ WAY too early to know what it really is, due to spotty reporting (both of deaths and cases), and because patients are still sick and could die tomorrow, next week, etc., even if no new infections occur.
- Dr. Dena Grayson: Per @CDCgov, “Early on, many of the patients in the outbreak in Wuhan, China reportedly had some link to a large seafood/animal market, suggesting animal-to-person spread.” Now, many newly diagnosed patients have NO connection to the market, supporting human-human spread = BAD
- Dr. Dena Grayson: @CDCgov I get asked: “How will I know if I have the coronavirus?” Answer: it’s very hard to tell, because the symptoms are similar to having influenza — anywhere on the spectrum from a very bad cold to severe pneumonia with respiratory compromise.
- Dr. Dena Grayson: @CDCgov Although there are no specific treatments (medicines to combat the coronavirus) or vaccines, excellent supportive care, such as IV fluids, intubation (on a “breathing machine”), can help support patients while their immune system battles (and hopefully, defeats) the infection.
- Dr. Dena Grayson: @CDCgov In an “outbreak,” local hospitals can get overwhelmed, and there aren’t enough hospital beds, staff, ventilators (breathing machines). This appears to be the case in Wuhan, where authorities are working to build a 1000-bed (mobile) hospital in JUST 10 DAYS. This is ALARMING.
- Dr. Dena Grayson: @CDCgovChina has a history of not accurately reporting outbreaks, so it’s hard to know exactly what is happening, especially with no free press, internet, etc. China’s massive response is VERY telling and strongly suggests that the Coronavirus Outbreak is VERY bad, especially in Wuhan
- Dr. Dena Grayson: @CDCgov How can you protect yourself and others? 1: Avoid contact with people who are visibly ill (even loved ones) 2: Stay home if YOU are sick 3: Cover your nose/mouth with a tissue (not hand) when coughing/sneezing 4: Don’t touch your face (difficult) 5: Wash your hands frequently
- Dr. Dena Grayson: @CDCgovRight now, the risk appears low in the US, with only a few isolated cases. Unfortunately, I expect that this will change, as more cases arise here, especially with global travel and how readily this coronavirus appears to spread (via droplets in the air).
- Dr. Dena Grayson: @CDCgov I will continue to provide commentary about the emerging Coronavirus as news emerges over time. In this Tweet link , you will find links to excellent @WHO and @CDCgov websites that track the Coronavirus Outbreak.
Outright Lies by China Over Virus Death Total
In regards to point number 10, please note Relatives Wonder Why Pneumonia Deaths Not in Coronavirus Tally.
A 53-year-old fitness trainer died on Wednesday after checking into a hospital in Wuhan a little more than a week earlier, said his niece. His family had expected the death certificate to reflect the deadly coronavirus, because as his condition deteriorated, his doctors told his family he was suffering from an untreatable virus in his lungs.
Instead, it recorded “severe pneumonia” as the cause of death, she said. The relatives of two other people who died in separate hospitals in Wuhan this week also described similar situations, saying the causes of death had been given as “viral pneumonia.”
The relatives of all three said the deceased hadn’t been included in China’s official count of 41 deaths attributed to coronavirus.
The Beijing News, a newspaper, reported this week that many patients weren’t officially labeled as carrying the new virus, even though their doctors and nurses said they were.
ZeroHedge has more sweep it under the rug cases in his report This is How China is Hiding the True Number of Coronavirus Deaths.
Beijing Lockdown
Ominous signs. Forbidden City (major tourist attraction) is now closed, and tours in #Beijing are now cancelled.
I fear that #Beijing soon may be locked down, joining at least 11 of cities in #China with a collective 50+ million people.#2019nCoV #corona #CoronavirusOutbreak https://t.co/HWWXZwYrI6
— Dena Grayson, MD, PhD (@DrDenaGrayson) January 25, 2020
Ominous signs. Forbidden City (major tourist attraction) is now closed, and tours in Beijing are now cancelled. I fear that Beijing soon may be locked down, joining at least 11 of cities in China with a collective 50+ million people.
Blocking the Roads
https://twitter.com/NoticiasVirus/status/1220894925480513537
Dr Dena Again
“Sick — even potentially critically ill — patients line the hallway. Such scenes only happen when a hospital is overwhelmed.“
More video via @muyixiao from “#Wuhan Hospital 11” showing the devastation of #2019nCoV.
Sick — even potentially critically ill — patients line the hallway. Such scenes only happen when a hospital is overwhelmed.https://t.co/th1iyjtfoF
— Dena Grayson, MD, PhD (@DrDenaGrayson) January 26, 2020
Message From Wuhan Nurse
There is another video with translation, shit is crazy out therehttps://t.co/SWyO7X4HK9
— Jobi (@Jobiel12Stars) January 25, 2020
“The front line is much scarier than reported on TV. Much worse. Doctors estimate 1000, are infected. The government told us to cure these people but we have no supplies. There is nothing we can do. We just watch people die. I cannot take this anymore. Do not trust the government. You are on your own.”
Wow!
I cannot confirm the accuracy of that video. The stress does sound real. If the video is real, that nurse is going to be in serious trouble for the last statement even if her 100,000 count is fictional.
Chris Martenson’s Must See Video
Also, please check out Chris Martenson’s Must See Video on the Coronavirus
We now have two PhDs, Chris Martenson whom I know personally as a straight shooter, and Dena Grayson whom I strongly believe is a straight shooter, now sharing similar concerns.
Economic Impact
A friend asked how this might play out economically speaking.
How it will and how it might and will are very different questions.
- If the China videos I recently added to this post are accurate, this could be like the Spanish flu.
- Alternatively it could die out.
- It could also be “contained” to China or Asia.
Those are vastly different scenarios.
Here is one setup on the Economic Impact of the 2003 SARS Outbreak.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with SARS during the 2003 outbreak. Of these, 774 died.
I cannot begin to calculate the Spanish Flu scenario.
“The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet’s population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans.”
That is extremely unlikely for many reasons including more knowledge of how viruses spread, better health care procedures, etc, but it is in the realm of possibilities.
Five Point Addendum
- Don’t confuse highly unlikely with impossible
- Don’t confuse possible with likely
- The odds of a fast mutating virus are not zero
- The odds of a mutation that results in very long incubation period are not zero
- Those who claim “impossible” understand neither viruses or math.
Expect a lot of “I told you so” comments from those in group 5.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I am of the opinion this virus did not pass from animal to person and I’ll leave it at that. And I’ll make no mention that just outside of Wuhan is a bio (weapons?) lab. There is no benefit on the part of governments to tell the truth, even if it’s benign, because public trust is low. Say anything…
I’m sure this idea sounds like it comes directly from Conspiracy Central, but I think this thing could easily be a scapegoat for the economic collapse. “Gee, things were going great and then this virus came along. Bummer, but it’s not our fault”. As bad as SARS was, it could have been a trial run to fine tune the main event. Or maybe it was a failed first attempt. I don’t know if any of this is accurate, but it wouldn’t surprise me a bit.
I am sure, I said it first: Never attribute to malice/conspiracy what you can easily explain by stupidity.
One question should also be clarified. Will this outbreak likely burn itself out with the arrival of spring and summer, like it usually does with cold and flu? Presumably, the abundance of UV light causes the R factor to drop below one. It might be too late for some, but a glimmer of hope for others.
It is certainly possible, and then they would presumably be able to make it part of the flu vaccine for next year.
Rational thinking people just know that at one point something is going to make our utterly fake, ‘civilized’ house of cards fall apart….Personally I thought it would be the collapse of the financial system doing the job, CBs however have managed so far to kick the cans down Dead End Avenue. Maybe , let s hope not , a global pandemic will now speed up the final demise…..Watch stocks tumbling the coming days !
My thought, exactly. Central bankers are quite adept at destruction, and I would add the political system that lets turd float to the top, instead of sinking to the bottom. It’s tragic if reality would be restored by cruel nature rather than rational design.
I just read an article about this that said the coronavirus stages end up as severe pneumonia. Many deaths in China are being listed as caused by pneumonia now; is this a way for the Chinese government to lower the number of deaths attributed to coronavirus?
There does not need to be any malicious intent for this type of error to happen. Anyone directly familiar with medical care knows official “cause of death” is often incomplete or incorrect. Speaking of which, medical records are often flawed for other reasons. For example, I recently had an experience where a pathologist said in his report: (1) I saw nothing of significance on the slides; and (2) This is consistent with the clinical disease for which the the physician took the biopsy. WTF? Pathology says it cannot see anything and then concludes the person is sick like the doctor suggested?? I believe the pathologist should have stated, “There is not any pathological evidence of disease and the result is inconclusive.”
This is just science like global warming – no need to worry. Just ignore “virus alarmists” and step over the “dead bodies” – they are probably just the same actors from Sandy Hook anyway. And all those cost estimates – pure baloney, just like rising seas, a pandemic is probably just bad instrumentation.
Orange County just reported their first case……..
And these morons want to rule the world?
Here is a view from the ground, and why this is already a pandemic (The street level politics that prevent containment) : link to youtube.com
Dena Grayson, with due respect to her MD/PhD and time spent in Biopharma (Amgen, et al) is stating the obvious from a scientific stand point. She should be given credit for outlining the obvious. She is also an aspiring politician (3rd wife of Alan Grayson as of 2015) and, as such, is in tune to the politics of being out front on something like this.
6 Don’t expect your government to acknowledge the obvious
Not to sound like I’m all about the money (I have a really bad feeling on this and have started to make preparations), but it could well be a “bulldozer that drives a gaping hole” through our current World-wide Financial Facade….
In Monte Python terms: it’s that one last thin mint….
People will start pulling in their “horns”…
Check out the Chinese bio-espionage article just posted on Zero-Hedge
Holy Moly !
Damn, and I have to fly to Florida next weekend and back to the west coast the following Tuesday. If there is one route into the US it is airplanes and airports. Recycled air, poor nutrition and hydration. The US case so far was in the Pacific Northwest. If I get this it is a death sentence, I have smoked too long and have had pneumonia a few times, it nearly killed me when I was 26, at 61 I would have little chance to survive it. Makes me wish I had elected to drive rather than fly.
Don’t worry about looking stupid, get some medical grade disposable masks and gloves and wear em…
If you absolutely must travel, You can still drive. Just adjust the schedules. Surely it’s not worth risking life for whatever appointments you’re keeping.
The problem as always is panic.
Hoarding leads to panic witch leads to more hoarding. The supply chains in this country are not build to ramp up quickly.
This could get very bad. Fear makes humans do very strange things. The Asian population has experienced this before. Experience helps people remain calm under stress. America has no clue. I hope we don’t, but all indicators are pointing towards a crash course on viruses is coming for America.
I expect the stock market to suffer.
Mish of course it wont kill the same percentage as the Spanish Flu. Even if it kills 675k people in the world that would be a lot. I’m not panicking yet however that is mostly because the US has natural borders to protect us from Asia.
Air travel easily overcome those natural barriers and its not just China. Now infected people can come from any of the other countries. How many countries is the US going to stop flights from?
Exactly. Natural barriers slow things only a little. If it spreads as quickly as some think, it will spread here, and everywhere else.
Air travel can be stopped completely as we saw after 9/11.
(sarc) You will be completely safe as long as are not exposed to someone who got infected in China, or to someone who was exposed to someone but who is not yet showing symptoms, or to someone who was exposed to someone who was exposed to someone who…….
But really, the next couple of weeks will tell us a lot about how contagious this really is and how lethal. The data coming from other than China is quite preliminary. I can’t help think though that those new cases in USA certainly infected many others before they were diagnosed.
FWIW this is exactly like the movie Contagion where an American business traveler brings back a viral illness from China after consuming meat that was infected by a bat that bit pigs. The symptoms and quick way coronavirus spreads are exactly the same as that movie.
Oh joy, a message from the elite?
Well this is probably the straw that breaks the back of globalization if the rates of illness are true. The state department may issue a travel ban on China or Asia in general.
The printing press will be busy. This crap is scary. I remember the ebola scare, this is far worse and actually a real threat. Like a nightmare. If it really gets that bad and you had to fight for resources i’m checking out. At one time I was into all the prepping crap etc etc etc i’m too old now and just don’t want to deal with it. Hopefully doesn’t come to that.
Thank you for this useful information. I begin to doubt WHO. Seems to me whomever at the top (WHO) is pretty useless.
China has become so influential they can go their own way on nearly everything and no global authority can impose methods or rules on them.
At the same time they are tied into the global system.
Unless all players sincerely decide to adopt similar approaches (standards) to global issues then none of the “World” organisations have any influence anyway.
It’s all theatre.
The Spanish Flu actually originated on a farm in Nebraska in 1916, spread and got transferred to Europe with American soldiers during WWI, morphed into a killer virus and came back to the US with returning soldiers at the end of the war.
Just one possible origination theory. There are at least two other credible theories.
How it will and how it might are very different questions.
1: If the China videos I just added are accurate, this could be like the Spanish flu.
2: Alternatively it could die out.
3: It could also be “contained” to China or Asia.
Those are vastly different scenarios.
Here is one setup on SARS
I cannot begin to calculate the Spanish Flu
The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet’s population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans.
Yes I should have asked how it might, because of course no one knows how it will.
This is ZH so pinch of salt but would be no surprise to me if true.
God only knows what lurks in dark places of the new military bio-complex.
It’s Chinese New Year now, so another economic impact may be that many Chinese migrants that went back to their home town may not be able to go back to work in early February.
Mish, you are the Global Economics guy. What are your thoughts about how this will effect economies and markets?
Good for tylenol stock, bad for fish market stocks
You are forgetting there is a great deal of leverage in the market that will result in margin covering in the event of any substantial draw down. Probably bad for all stocks (including even J&J).
I was joking.