Some pollsters are going to be eating serious crow tomorrow. Others will be eating steak.
I did not expect to be doing an update tonight, but these final polls are so different, they merit a look.
Survation
**Survation Final Call**
GB VOTING INTENTIONCON 44.5
LAB 33.7
LD 9.3
GRE 3.2
SNP 4.0
PC 1.4
AP 0.9— Survation. (@Survation) December 11, 2019
Survation Scotland
.@Survation final #GE2019 poll (fully weighted Scotland subsample n=910)
SNP 45.6%
CON 27.4%
LAB 14.8%
LD 9.6%
BXP 1.4%
GRN 1.1%— Paul Middleton (@ProfPMiddleton) December 12, 2019
ComRes
Our final #GE2019 Westminster voting intention on behalf of the @Telegraph, is as follows:
CON 41% (-)
LAB 36% (+3)
LD 12% (-)
Other 11% (-3)9th – 10th Dec
(changes from Savanta ComRes/Sunday Telegraph, Dec 7th)https://t.co/SwZAJxFqTk pic.twitter.com/PRibInIPwE
— Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) December 11, 2019
Survation as Modeled by Electoral Calculus
I caution, that is NOT the Survation prediction nor an Electoral Calculus prediction.
Rather, it is the Electoral Calculus prediction ASSUMING the final Survation poll is correct (also assuming I entered the Survation data correctly into the Electoral Calculus model).
ComRes Final Poll as Entered Into Electoral Calculus
These ComRes Final Regional Numbers from table 29, literally seem out of this world. Labour is allegedly beating the Tories in the NorthEast, NorthWest, Yorkshire, Wales, West Midlands, and London.
This is possible, just amazingly unlikely, at least in my opinion. Nonetheless, let’s assume it is accurate.
ComRes Final as Projected by Electoral Calculus
I caution, that is NOT the ComRes prediction nor an Electoral Calculus prediction.
Rather, it is the Electoral Calculus prediction ASSUMING the final ComRes poll is correct (also assuming I entered the ComRes data correctly into the Electoral Calculus model).
Bear in mind that even under this extremely (IMO) unlikely (yet conceivable) outcome, the Tories fail by one. Even then, that assumes everyone takes their seats.
Seven Northern Ireland candidates have promise to not not take their seats. They did not take them in 2017 either. So, if that happened again, the Tories would still have a majority.
Hung Parliament Odds
A hung parliament is possible. I rate that about a 10% chance.
But hey, even if my forecast is correct, it is important to note that I will be wrong 10% of the time.
90% is not 100%.
My Forecast
My forecast has not changed based on these new polls.
Here is Mish’s Fearless UK Election Forecast Seat-by-Seat.
For seat-by-seat analysis and my rationale, please click on the above link.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Well done Mish. Fantastic analysis all through the campaign, really enjoyed reading it.
First tweet in Telegraph after polls close at 10.01 based on exit polls.
Now it’s the Tories’ turn to screw the native UK population.
First tweet in Telegraph after polls close at 10.01 based on exit polls.
Conservatives: 368
Labour: 191
SNP 55
Liberal Democrats: 13
Plaid Cymru: 3
Green: 1
Brexit Party: 0
Other: 19
Brutal. The percentages would be interesting but those are probably not released.
The collapse of Labour and the victory of Tories is spectacular in these numbers. However, one should also look at the SNP. That would be a brutal landslide for them in Scotland.
This election is so strung out, an interlude and more down to earth reminder of UK
The Scots are a strange bunch – their best people are vey good. Their worst people are the fvcking dregs. In any event, the British Isles need rid of these parasites – the drain on the welfare system is off the dial. No wonder the Independence vote didn’t succeed – the ‘dependents’ know which teat is more reliable!
I’m not voting today. I’m in a Conservative safe seat, and will not vote for a Party committed to a non-Brexit Brexit.
Exactly what Mr Corbyn & Mrs Swinson are hoping for. It won’t be a safe seat if all Brexit supporters do that. We’d end up having a referendum between Mr Corbyn’s version of Brexit or remain. Mr Corbyn’s version will be terrible on all fronts, not just because of his ideology but because the EU want us to remain.
Please help to get brexit done. Please vote. 🙂
Who can I vote for to get Brexit done? Boris is claiming it will be done by January 31st – but actually it will go on for years yet, and he has already agreed to align regulations, fisheries, taxation and defence with the EU, pay it £33bn and offer it a guarantee of £40bn of eurozone debts, as well as handing Northern Ireland. Chip Talk, Boris has hoodwinked you.
All eyes on the exit poll, I think they’ve been quite accurate lately.
If they win, they may decide to take an ‘independent’ Scotland into the EU but out of NATO
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What on earth makes anyone think the EU would be interested in a godforsaken place like Scotland? The country is permanently bankrupt, no growth industry, lousy weather and (so far as the SNP is concerned) a backwards looking, vindictive, and thoroughly self-indulgent political agenda. Not the welcoming worldly country that it likes to think it is – far from it. This from someone who lived in Scotland for 12 years! If the UK does somehow leave the UK, I can’t imagine Van der Leyden and the powers that be in the EU wanting to touch Scotland with a barge pole. So far as the majority of English people are concerned – not that 99.999% of them have any concern or even understanding of Scotland, other than the mistaken conception that its a province of England a long way north of Birmingham – I am sure the prevailing attitude is ‘Good luck with independence, Jimmy – GET ON WITH IT!’.
Never underestimate the foul intentions of the EU! They would encourage Scotland’s vote for independence in fresh attempts to further destabilise Britain.
It doesn’t matter that it is a bankrupt country with poor education and health outcomes, no industry and no real service sector, they will want it simply because it is next to England.
the megalomaniac, amorphous EU circus is even negotiating with a shit country like Albania …..Yes they would take in Scotland…. for the hell of it !
I suppose that Faslane might be an attractive enough proposition to house French (sorry, EU) submarines now that its deemed that the USA represents such a monumental threat to Europe. The comment is of course sarcastic and preposterous, but who knows what the future holds with monsters like the SNP getting their way.
I think your ironic comment is spot on. Scotland is a geostrategic prize for Europe. And yes, they are going for an EU army as soon as the British are out. French and German soldiers stationed on the island of GB? It is well in the cards.
By the way, the value of Northern Ireland is also significant. It seems to be a wave of a hand to Brexiteers but it is actually one of the last remnants of British power. With an independent Scotland and a united Ireland, Britain will be subordinated to EU even on the outside.
The EU want empire – they will take any 3rd rate poop hole like Albania, Wales or Scotland
“What on earth makes anyone think the EU would be interested in a godforsaken place like Scotland?”
Fisheries, oil, most exclusive real estate in the world (Highlands where only billionaires dare to own…), compliant population desperate to be governed by a huge foreign bureaucracy.
Not to mention: sitting literally and figuratively over England, for annexing Scotland will have effectively scotched (pun intended) the United Kingdom. And they’ll then get N.I., and the next thing they’ll go for is Wales, then Labour strongholds in the North and London and then….
The SNP in the British parliament doesn’t matter much but they have a majority in Scotland’s parliament.
Assuming the Tories win an outright majority, the SNP may have an impact on what kind of agreement Johnson makes with the EU. If it is a genuine Brexit that even I would like, Scots may do another referendum on independence. If they win, they may decide to take an ‘independent’ Scotland into the EU but out of NATO. That would be fine with me, but not with the US/UK military/industrial complexes or whatever you want to call them.
This is pure speculation but I suspect that some Americans with dark suits, sunglasses and briefcases may show up in England to have a chat with Johnson soon after the election. If they see any risk in an independent Scotland ditching NATO, they are likely to tell Johnson not to do a good Brexit that might anger the Scots. An independent Scotland won’t have much of a military but their geography makes them vital to NATO.
The SNP will have a big influence in a hung parliament.