by Mish

Those Survation polls now look like outliers or more likely fatally flawed methods.

Here are the latest polls.

Jeremy Corbyn’s Surge: is Labour’s Poll Boost Real?

The New Statesman writer Stephen Bush asks Jeremy Corbyn’s Surge: is Labour’s Poll Boost Real?

Are Labour on the verge of something big? YouGov’s final seat projection puts them on 269 seats, gaining just 37 seats on 2015, but crucially, more than enough gains for the parties of the centre and left to shut out the parties of the right – the Conservatives would have 302 seats, comfortably the largest party but not big enough for the DUP and the UUP to get them out of trouble. (I explain the arithmetic of a hung parliament here.)
Although YouGov are comfortably providing the sunniest picture for Labour supporters, the picture is clear across all the pollsters – Labour are surging across the polls. Although there are two very distinct groups as far as the polling companies are concerned – ICM, IpsosMori, ComRes and ORB are showing large Conservative leads, YouGov, Opinium and Survation are showing small ones – they are actually showing a very similar picture.
What they’re showing is this: Theresa May has taken a big chunk out of the Ukip vote, and a small but significant slice of the Liberal Democrat vote. That’s been the pattern since the start of the campaign. What’s happened is that her campaign has alienated a group of Labour voters who dislike Jeremy Corbyn and were planning on voting for May, who had presented herself as a different type of Conservative. Now as far as that group of voters is concerned, May has revealed herself to be a thoroughly typical Conservative, and that group is now back to voting for Labour.

What’s Happening?

Stephen Bush is certainly closer to the political situation than I am, but our take on what happened diverges with the most recent polls.

My take is those who changed their minds to back Corbyn have had a change of mind.

Perhaps the recent terrorist attacks put May back on track. Perhaps voters are wondering “How is the UK going to pay for all of his Labour promises?”

It does not matter why, but if the final polls by ComRes and ICM are accurate the Tories may win in a blowout.

Mirage Surge

Back in April, numerous polls had Tory leads of 20-25 percentage points. But those polls were a likely mirage.

If one goes back to January, the Tory lead was 8 to 17 percentage points.

Now polls are reasonably close to where they were in January, albeit on the lower end of that range.

Discounting the wild swings, one in each direction, we are right back where we started from.

Tossing aside the Survation Outliers, the average of seven polls concluding June 2 or later is 9.6.

Number of Seats

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The above prediction from Electoral Calculus.

YouGov Final Calculation

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A strong turnout by liberal youth who do not know any better is Labour’s only possible salvation. We find out tomorrow.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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