by Mish

UK GDP Weaker Than Expected

The Guardian reports UK GDP Growth Slower Than Expected as Inflation Bites.

The UK economy suffered a sharp slowdown in the opening months of this year, as the post-referendum rise in living costs took its toll on British households and hit consumer spending.
GDP growth fell more than expected to 0.3% in the first quarter from 0.7% in the previous quarter, the Office for National Statistics said.

France GDP Weaker Than Expected

MarketWatch reports France’s GDP Growth Slows Ahead of Election.

French gross domestic product expanded 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the three months through March after growing 0.5% at the end of 2016, statistics agency Insee said. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.4% increase.
Despite the high level of political uncertainty, total investment rose 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a 1.3% rise in business investment. Consumer spending still eked out 0.1% growth quarter-on-quarter despite a 3.8% tumble in spending on energy amid mild weather. But overall growth was held back by a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter decline in exports.
The slowdown in France casts some doubt over the strength of the eurozone economy in the first quarter. Business surveys have pointed to a pickup in growth during the first quarter, and have been cited by the European Central Bank as evidence that the recovery is becoming more “solid.” Official figures for gross domestic product in the currency area will be released Wednesday.

France vs US

As with the UK, France does not annualize GDP data. Growth of 0.3% would be reported as 1.2% in the US.

Thus, based on reported numbers, France is growing faster than the US.

More Soft Data Nonsense

Belief in confidence numbers and diffusion index surveys is widespread. Also note the business expansion just as exports slump. Is the weather too good globally?

Global Weakness Predictable

The global weakness was very predictable. We had a timely warning courtesy of the IMF on April 18: IMF raises global economic outlook in 2017 to 3.5% on investment recovery.

Global economic growth will accelerate in 2017 as investment, manufacturing and trade rebound, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday as it raised its outlook for the year.World growth is expected to rise to 3.5% this year and 3.6% in 2018, compared to 3.1% last year.
“Stronger activity and expectations of more robust global demand, coupled with agreed restrictions on oil supply, have helped commodity prices recover from their troughs in early 2016,” according to a statement from the IMF, which is holding its annual spring meetings in Washington, D.C., this week.
The IMF also raised its outlook for the advanced economies, which include the U.S., the U.K., Germany, Italy, Spain, Japan and other developed nations. It now anticipates they will grow by 2% this year, up slightly from 1.9% forecast in January.

Thank You IMF!

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

FedEx Warns of Global Slowdown: Expect More Warnings

After hours, FedEx warned of a global slowdown and slashed its global forecast.

Weaker Than Expected GDP: Mixed Bag or Worse?

Fourth Quarter real GDP came in at 2.6%. Nowcast estimated 3.9%, GDPNow 3.4%. Let's dive into the report.

Ireland’s GDP Up Stunning 26%; Expect France to Whine

Ireland’s GDP is up a stunning 26% this year via the ridiculous way GDP is measured.

Inventory Report a Bit Weaker than Expected

Economists expected a bit stronger inventory report heading into tomorrow's GDP report.

Brink of a Global Recession: UK and Germany in Contraction

The UK economy shrank by 0.2% between April and June. It won't stop there. Germany is also in contraction.

Diving Into the IMF’s Global Housing Update: Bubbles and Busts

The IMF’s Global House Price Index, an average of real house prices across 57 monitored countries, continues to climb.

GDP Bounce as Expected, Spending Jumps

The consensus opinion got GDP right this month for the first time in three quarters.

IMF Cuts 2019 Global Growth Forecasts Again: "We Have No Idea," Says Lagarde

For the fourth time since October, the IMF revised its global growth forecast lower.

Third Quarter GDP 3.5%, Much Weaker Than it Looks: Inventory Adjustment 2.07%

GDPNow nailed the first estimate of third-quarter GDP. The BEA reports 3.5% with inventories accounting for 2.07 points.