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Brexit Means Brexit

Anyone who believes the EU has a big advantage in the pending trade talks with the UK needs to wake up to reality.

The 'Whole Point' of Brexit is Undermined if UK Continues to Follow EU Rules, says David Frost, the UK's chief negotiator.

David Frost Quotes

  • “We bring to the negotiations not some clever tactical positioning but the fundamentals of what it means to be an independent country,” Mr Frost said in his first public speech as the Prime Minister’s Europe Advisor and Chief Negotiator.
  • “It isn’t a simple negotiating position which might move under pressure, it is the point of the whole project. That’s also why we will not extend the transition beyond the end of this year. At that point we recover our political and economic independence in full. Why would we want to postpone it?"
  • “We only want what other independent countries have,” Mr Frost said in a reference to EU trade deals with countries such as Canada, which have far less stringent level playing field guarantees.
  • “So if it is true, as we hear from our friends in the commission and the 27, that the EU wants a durable and sustainable relationship in this highly sensitive area, the only way forward is to build on this approach of a relationship of equals.”

Level Playing Field

The EU says it wants a "level playing field".

That is an easily seen lie. The EU is still attempting to trap the UK into a customs arrangement. And it won't work.

If the EU really wants a "level playing field" it will offer a Canada-style free trade agreement or better yet, agree to scrap all tariffs and be done with it.

Australia Style Agreement

There is talk now of an "Australia Style Agreement".

That is a euphemism for a basic WTO agreement.

EU's Choice

The EU has misjudged the UK's will every step of the way.

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That is why Brexit happened.

It has another choice now.

Hello WTO?

If the EU misjudges again, hello basic WTO agreement.

But the WTO also allows for a basic agreement with details that can take as long as 10 years to settle.

If an extended deal is accompanied by a long-term low-tariff arrangement, that's OK.

EU Staring Into the Abyss

The EU is staring into the abyss.

There is no time for a"comprehensive" agreement but I still expect a blanket low-tariff agreement in which many details are left for later.

Germany is in recession now. The Greens are not helping, nor diesel, nor is the coronavirus.

Factor in huge exports tariffs if there is no deal at all, and Germany's already troubled export machine will collapse.

EU Has No Cards

The EU has no cards with which to bluff. Thus, I expect it will fold.

If not, hello abyss.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock