Labour Push
Three of the last six polls have the Tory lead in single digits. The latest spread is only 7 percentage points.
Between October 21 and October 28, the lowest lead for the Tories was 13%.
Appearances Deceive
That is the wrong way of looking at things.
The Tory lead has actually risen when one compares the current poll to the previous one by the same pollster.
Let’s analyze the latest 7 pols, interestingly, each by a different polling organization.
Percentage Point Tory Lead by Pollster
- ICM Current 7 PP vs ICM Prior 6 PP : Net +1
- Deltapoll Current 12 vs Deltapoll Prior 13: Net -1
- Datapoll Current 12 vs Datapoll Prior 13 PP: Net -1
- Opinium Current 16 vs Opinium Prior 16 PP: Net 0
- YouGov Current 12 vs YouGov Prior 15 PP: Net -3
- ComRes Current 8 vs ComRes Prior 4 PP: Net +4
- PanelBase Current 11 vs Panelbase Prior 9: Net +2
That’s a slight gain overall but the lowest spread is now 7 percentage points up from 4 percentage points.
Moreover, the biggest Tory poll-to-poll loss was in YouGov where the Tory lead is still a shopping 12 percentage points.
Most Recent Seven Poll Average
- Tory: 38.7%
- Labour: 29.6%
- Liberal Democrat: 15.1%
- Brexit Party: 10.6
Election Announced
The December 12 UK election was announced on October 30.
Let’s investigate trends immediately prior to the election announcement.
Seven Polls Prior to Election Announcement
- Tory: 37.6%
- Labour: 23.7%
- Liberal Democrat: 18.1%
- Brexit Party: 10.6
Curiously, not only did Labour pick up percentage points, so did the Tories.
Labour seemed to pick up all of the decline by the Liberal Democrats and then some.
However, such analysis is a bit flawed because YouGov was represented three times in the prior seven polls.
Four Most Recent Polls
- Tory: 39.75%
- Labour: 28.0%
- Liberal Democrat: 15.3%
- Brexit Party: 9.0
Tactical Voting
The four most recent polls, all ending November 1 or later suggest tactical voting.
Votes shifted from the Brexit Party to the Tories and more so from Liberal Democrats to Labour.
This still does not seem to add up to the Labour gains. New voters could be in play as could simple firming of opinion from “do not know”.
Regardless, the latest polls, which logically weigh more, retain a double-digit lead of Tories over Labour.
Wales Regional Voting
Many readers have pointed out that this will be decided at the regional level. I agree so let’s take a look at Wales.
Latest Wales Poll
- Labour: 29%
- Conservatives: 28%
- Brexit Party: 15%
- Liberal Democrats: 12%
Current Wales MP Representation
- Labour: 28 MPs
- Conservatives: 7 MPs
- Plaid Cymru: 4 MPs
- Liberal Democrat: 1 MP
Professor Roger Awan-Scully ponders First Welsh Poll since the general election announcement.
Despite their standing having slipped in some of the recent Britain-wide polls, here the Brexit Party’s support appears impressively robust, and they are actually in third place in Wales. The Labour party have apparently improved their position a little over the last few weeks in Wales, while the Liberal Democrats have seen their support edging downwards.
What might be the implications of such support levels for the forty Welsh parliamentary constituencies: who could we see returning after the election as their MPs? A multi-party contest in the current, highly uncertain political context makes the projection of vote share numbers onto seats particularly hazardous. But using the standard method of projecting uniform national swings since the last general election gives us the following outcome in terms of seats (with projected changes from the 2017 result in brackets).
Projected MP Seats vs Current
- Labour: 18 (-10)
- Conservatives: 17 (+10)
- Plaid Cymru: 4
- Liberal Democrats: 1
Note: The article has conservatives picking up 9 and the Liberal Democrats 1. I adjusted the totals to +10 and +0.
Wales Electoral Earthquake
As can be seen, at present the Conservatives are on course to challenge Labour very closely not only in terms of vote-share but also in parliamentary seats. Any such result in Wales would represent an electoral earthquake: it would be the first time post-war that Labour had not won an absolute majority of Welsh seats in a general election. It would also see Wales making a major contribution to delivering a parliamentary majority for Boris Johnson.
One of the main reasons why the Conservatives are challenging Labour so strongly in Wales is likely to be the current standing of their respective leaders. On our standard question where we ask respondents to rate each of the leaders on a 0-10 scale, Boris Johnson averages some way ahead of Jeremy Corbyn. And when we ask people directly which one of the two would make the best Prime Minister, Johnson is the choice of 41 percent of our sample, compared to only 26 percent for the Leader of the Opposition (with the remaining 32 percent either being unsure or refusing to answer).
Scotland
Nearly all the analysts believe SNP will pick up seats in Scotland. As with Wales, I wonder if that is the case.
SNP wants another Scottish Independence referendum, something I an confident the general public does not want.
Thus, I am skeptical of this SNP support.
However, tactical voting can be in play: Voters can cast with SNP now knowing that a referendum vote is not likely in the cards soon, and if it comes, they can always vote against it.
Farage a Threat to Labour
In a speech this morning, Nigel Farage made the claim that UKIP helped the Tories and so will the Brexit Party.
“The absolute truth of it is that it was in fact the UKIP vote that disproportionately hurt the Labour party in the 2015 general election,” said Farage.
A British Election Study dismissed Farage’s claim with some compelling graphs. Here is their conclusion:
How might this play out with the Brexit party this time? Our most recent data was collected right after the European Parliament elections in June when the Brexit party was briefly leading the polls. Taken together, the Brexit party drew 72% of its support from 2017 Conservatives and 17% from 2017 Labour voters. In Labour-held seats, this gap narrows slightly to 64% Conservatives and 24% Labour voters. There are some caveats. It is possible that there may be some small subset of seats, where the Brexit party is more attractive to recent Labour voters, and the Conservatives have done a good job of reclaiming Brexit party voters since June. But even with these caveats, it is hard to see how the Brexit party will hurt Labour more than the Conservatives.
Farage Analysis
I agree with the highlights, point by point.
Snatching Defeat From Jaws of Victory
From the Guardian Live Blog
In a phone-in with LBC this morning Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons and leading Brexiter, said that Nigel Farage should “retire from the field” because he had already achieved his lifelong ambition to deliver Brexit. Rees-Mogg claimed that, by standing against the Tories at the election, the Brexit party could end up snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Rees-Mogg said:
“I think [Farage] would be well-advised to recognize that that battle he won. He should be really proud of his political career.
It would be a great shame if he carries on fighting after he has already won to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
I understand why Nigel Farage would want to carry on campaigning because he has been campaigning for the best part of 30 years and it must be hard to retire from the field. But that is what he ought to do.”
Farage Says Johnson’s Deal is Not Brexit
I find that to be a joke.
Johnson managed a better deal than I thought even possible.
He even managed to keep in place a chance for a WTO trade outcome within the deal. I do not think it will come to that because that suits neither the UK nor EU.
But it could, and that’s what ensures a fair trade negotiation process.
Verge of a Victory
The only way to get a good deal was to keep No Deal in place. Johnson managed to do that, aided by Labour and the Liberal Democrats who kept postponing elections until France demanded a resolution.
It is not at all clear that the Tories would win on Farage’s No Deal demand.
It is possible, if not likely, that a hard Brexit would unite everyone against Johnson. Plenty of moderates and even Tory Party members want a deal.
Labour’s official policy is Referendum. That would take another year. People are sick of this, except of course the avid Remainers whose only hope is to draw this out forever.
Latest Tory Polls
In this set, I added ICM.
Latest Labour Polls
Support for Labour is rising but at a slope that is far less steep except for ICM. Some polls are even flat.
The ICM trendline is bogus as it only contains two reference points.
Also note the box spread from lowest to highest is 6 boxes and 10 percentage point. The Tory variance is half that.
Is support for Johnson firmer? That’s what the polls suggest.
Many Scenarios In Play
I don’t rule out anything, but I suspect Farage will disappear into meaningless as Johnson delivers Brexit.
If Farage is still substantially in the picture after this election, it will not be a good thing. He will have contributed to Remain, siphoning off Tory votes.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Nothing surprises me any longer, but I’m not quite sure what to make of this. Interesting developments though. link to youtu.be
Is the fog beginning to clear? Tuesday morning Michael Gove said that Transition period would NOT be extended beyond end 2020. This was later confirmed by No 10 spokesperson.
Boris would have 11 months to negotiate FTA or we leave on WTO. The subtle difference this time is that WTO arrangements would now include (and retain) all the elements of the Withdrawal Agreement – security, information, air travel, residents rights and the numerous other cross border arrangements.
As Mish has pointed out before – UK could leave under WTO but without the “crashing out” element.
I sense a new article from Mish.
“I sense a new article from Mish”
Correct
I dont like the deal. I am not going to vote for the Brino party of Boris Johnson. I dont believe he will even deliver on his deal. It is little more than a bait and switch for the electorate.
As Farage says, if you want Brexit there is little choice but to vote for the Brexit party. The sad thing is so many people who want Brexit believe Boris despite the fact that he made it so clear that he will do all he can to avoid a Brexit through his actions and decisions. All of his political theatre can be understood by assuming that the goal of those in Parliament is to conspire to keep the Brexiteer politicians out of Parliament. It has worked well, many have the wool right over their eyes. I just hope one day people will remember who did what and said what.
Meanwhile I suppose the best I can do is ask for the captain to bring me my wine.
We haven’t had that spirit here since nineteen sixtynine.
We are missing a clear explanation of the new WA. I am assuming it can be written either way by 1-3 years, and that it will technically mean UK restored sovereignty with an alignment of various laws staying on the UK books, payment being made of “outstanding”, and during transition. For NI it is unknown where that leads eventually.
So the way I see it is that if BJ is given a majority, then he has four years free hand to tailor that direction to the liking of conservatives and co. , restrained by ERG, Cash and other eurosceptics who will place certain limits. That is theory, in practice a good majority does also mean an in name only if that is chosen, i.e. alignment is kept so close that re-entry remains feasible at a later date. This is ignoring the distaste felt by many of seeing UK playing to or assimilating EU manner and agenda, maybe indefinitely .
On the other hand if Farage is given a wrecking vote, where does that lead. That could be used by conservatives to strike a harder deal with EU, could force conservatives to strike a harder deal, could be used to force no deal brexit – but unlikely as there will be normally a majority against no deal so taking us back to another obliged delay. The last means possible second referendum, possible remain.
So tactically, which does a person choose ? It isn’t happy camping either way. Do you vote Farage because you feel he is right, even though that throws new referendum into the works ? A lot depends on how conservatives are willing to play, and how many remainers and no-nodealers are in parliament, something which at best won’t be known till after election.
So tories, whether appreciated or not, are rounding up the vote. I think many will be voting resentfully, and I think that is not exactly good for UK.
per Mish – “Farage Says Johnson’s Deal is Not Brexit
I find that to be a joke.”
Really?
Nigel Farage made an interesting speech on Monday. He covered 11 points regarding why BJ’s deal is not Brexit. Per BJ’s agreement document,
There is no Free Trade Deal with the EU unless:
Boris Johnson’s deal is truly NOT Brexit.
That is Farage’s interpenetration and if accurate ERG would not like it.
Points 8-10 are speculation.
I would like to see an ERG synopsis of the deal.
Besides. Johnson can choose a WTO Brexit
“Johnson can choose a WTO Brexit”.. Joke? Sarcasm?
So Mish, points 1-7 of soundopinion’s piece are rock-solid, points 8, 9 & 10 may be speculative but so what? The liar has sold out the DUP and the fisheries industry, the rest is obvious, I fundamentally disagree with Farage but when he is correct I acknowledge it and Farage is rcorrect. The liar does not know what he has negotiated and his proposed treaty will unravel and do for him in this election. There are two further points, 1] The EU trades under WTO rules, and 2] How does anyone negotiate an FTA in which the prime object of one of the parties is to diverge from the counter party. This is the fundamental stupidity of the Liar’s position.
Politics is the art of the possible.
It’s very hard to sell a pure Brexit to the general public.
An extreme position won’t work in a democracy.
I am pretty sure that everyone who voted for Brexit were expecting the extreme version of it. And if I recall, all the main politicians tried to sell us the opposite but we didnt buy it.
“How does anyone negotiate an FTA in which the prime object of one of the parties is to diverge from the counter party. This is the fundamental stupidity of the Liar’s position.”
Hmm. Does that mean one cannot negotiate a FTA with Japan, or Korea or even China? I would suggest that one can. The sticking point with the EU is whether or not you have to surrender sovereignty in order to trade with them. For those within the EU, the answer clearly is yes; however, for those outside, it should be no.
Obviously there are issues involving quality control/standards, tariffs and so forth which have to be negotiated. Let’s take chlorinated chicken (Ch.Ch) as an obvious, simple example. If EU quality laws are such that Ch.Ch is regarded as unfit for human consumption and therefore illegal to offer or purchase, that’s that, the EU has the right – just as any sovereign nation for that matter – to disallow it, and no doubt that is the sort of thing which has to be sorted with the EU versus thinking one can go in with a standards-free ‘free trade’ arrangement where you can buy and sell anything. However, that is not the same as requiring your trading partner to agree to be under your legislative jurisdiction with all disputes mediated in your own ECJ Court.
(This is why I think it makes little difference if the initial exit starts with or without a formal withdrawal agreement; either way, there is lots to negotiate once the UK is out of EU jurisdiction. All they had to do is give themselves 1-2 years to negotiate and meanwhile keep everything the same until that process was finished.)
Dear god, the whole point of an FTA is to converge as far as possible. The liar wishes to diverge, that is the opposite of an FTA, that means there is nothing to negotiate. You obviously don’t understand the logic of your position. But then I shouldn’t expect any better.
You converge in terms of trading certain products (never all), but again: doing that doesn’t have to involve surrendering your sovereignty to a foreign power in order to trade with them. That’s called vassalage, or being a colony.
Since your moniker is ‘avid remainer’ I presume you feel just fine about being under a foreign jurisdiction which sits above your own Courts, Crown and Parliament (which are constitutionally interwoven in the UK). That’s fine. However, it seems you have a problem understanding those who do not think this is a good setup and want a more traditional, independent nation-state type situation.
Actually, I’m sympathetic to many of the arguments for an EU organisation, and also for a federation of States such as you find in the USSR or the USA. However, leaving aside any well-deserved criticism of the EU organisational dynamics, the UK’s natural situation as an island which is already a United Kingdom of four nations is more than enough ‘federalisation’ for them. That and her history of being a maritime and global power whose language is spoken by about one in four people in the world and understood by maybe a third. In any case, the referendum settled that argument: Leave won.
So the UK should leave. It’s not complicated unless you are trying to avoid the inevitable – which is what has been happening unfortunately.
The brexiteers wish to diverge, move apart, get far away from, split away from the current FTA with the EU. You totally miss my point. We have an FTA with the EU and the brexiteers wish to put distance between the UK and the EU. They want an anti-FTA. Deal with this aspect and explain how they are going to negotiate to deviate?
Farage is likely just posturing, which is the logical thing for him to do. If he’s seen to be supportive of Johnson’s deal, then what’s the point of voting for BP instead of the Tories?
To stay relevant and maintain his place in the polls he must differentiate himself from Boris. This is how he will maximize leverage in any deal with the Tories. Despite the recent rhetoric, a deal is almost certainly still in the cards. It will either be announced late in the game or will be an under-the-table agreement.
Two interesting takes on what Farage is up to:
link to zerohedge.com
“Mike Shedlock thinks Farage’s deal is “Preposterous.” Mike is wrong. It is the only offer Farage could offer the Tories and stay in any way relevant in a time of electoral chaos and party fluidity.
It is the kind of ‘big ask’ that his friend Donald Trump would make. It may be an opening bid in a complex negotiation that ends with them making a pact towards the end of the campaign.
Frankly that only happens if the polls shift considerably from where they are.
Politics is not a game for the timid or the weak. If Farage is to be a big player in British politics he needs to act like he is a big player in British politics.”
“Because what Farage is doing here is very important. He’s appealing to all sides of the Brexit issue as something far more important than party history and group identification. He’s running on a political manifesto which says that something is terribly wrong with this country.
I wonder if Nigel has a Guy Fawkes mask in his closet at home.
He’s moving the party beyond the issue of Brexit and toward what Brexit is supposed to represent.
Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” is a statement of today. It’s a plea for help to do something he should have already accomplished. Politically, it’s weak and betrays a bit of impotence from the oldest party in the U.K.
Farage has positioned the Brexit Party on a “Change Politics for Good” platform that proposes sweeping changes to the system from proportional representation to a written constitution and reforming the House of Lords.
This is, as Monty Python would say, something completely different.”
Personally, am a little baffled by what is going on. But have little doubt that the underlying Tory agenda is being occluded and the argument that they are part of The Establishment is not without merit. At the same time, the almost rabid support the Great New Deal enjoys from stalwarts like Bill Cash and ERG chief Baker leads me to believe that all could still be well. But if that’s true, why is Farage mounting such a determined opposition? I find it hard to believe it’s just ego, or an inability to let go, to admit that he’s won and it’s time to retire as JRM said yesterday. Not an unreasonable supposition, but it doesn’t all add up – at least for me.
I like the trend analysis approach, but am really curious to see how it looks in 2-3 weeks. Early days yet, horses still chomping at bit in the starting gate. Race has not yet begun.