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Bloomberg reports China, U.S. to Hold Trade Talks ‘in October’ as Mistrust Remains.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He agreed to a visit “in early October” during a telephone call on Thursday morning Beijing time with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, according to a statement from China’s Ministry of Commerce. A cautious statement from the USTR’s office confirmed that ministerial-level discussions will take place in “the coming weeks,” without specifying when.

Liars Poker

On August 26, I reported Trump Claims "Meaningful" Talks at the "Highest Level", China Doesn't Confirm

A spokesman for the U.S. Trade Representative didn’t respond to questions about when the call took place and between whom.

Asked later in the day to clarify whom the calls were with, Mr. Trump said: “I don’t want to talk about calls. We’ve had calls. We’ve had calls at the highest levels.”

Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported Trump Warns China Not to Stall Talks.

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It seems the phone call Trump announced on August 26 ago has finally been placed.

With that confirmation, please look on the handy-dandy chart at the top to figure out where we are.

Trade War Cycle

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Is anyone keeping track?

I just made up a number "for the 42nd time". Perhaps its on the low side.

China Cycle Spinning Fast

The China cycle is spinning extremely fast right now.

Progression Example

Important Note

The cycle with China repeats at a rate 3-10 times faster than the cycle with Europe which in turn is faster than the cycle with Mexico. Track each country individually although the cycles may overlap on occasion.

When things are purportedly going very well with China, that's when Trump is most likely to make an attack out of the blue on someone else, typically Germany.

On a timeline basis, I sense an attack on Germany or the EU coming soon. But as noted above, we may need a more China cycles to be sure.

Stop the Damn Lies

For a Trump trade refresher course on how the full cycle works historically, please see Dear President Trump: Stop the Damn Trade Lies

Mike "Mish" Shedlock