Unemployment – A Lagging or Coincident Indicator
In the last two recessions unemployment was a lagging indicator peaking approximately 18 months after the recession officially ended.
by Mish
In the four recessions between 1970 and 1982 unemployment was a coincident indicator, starting to rise with the recession and pretty much peaking as the economy was just starting to recover. In no instances was unemployment a leading indicator.
The above chart thanks to Bart at NowAndFutures.
Conclusion
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Those expecting some sort of huge advance warning in unemployment stats in advance of the next recession are unlikely to find it.
Mike Shedlock / Mish/