September 20, 2021
Unemployment – A Lagging or Coincident Indicator
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Unemployment – A Lagging or Coincident Indicator

In the last two recessions unemployment was a lagging indicator peaking approximately 18 months after the recession officially ended.
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In the last two recessions unemployment was a lagging indicator peaking approximately 18 months after the recession officially ended.

by Mish

In the four recessions between 1970 and 1982 unemployment was a coincident indicator, starting to rise with the recession and pretty much peaking as the economy was just starting to recover. In no instances was unemployment a leading indicator.

The above chart thanks to Bart at NowAndFutures.

Conclusion

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