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by Mish

In the four recessions between 1970 and 1982 unemployment was a coincident indicator, starting to rise with the recession and pretty much peaking as the economy was just starting to recover. In no instances was unemployment a leading indicator.

The above chart thanks to Bart at NowAndFutures.

Conclusion

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Those expecting some sort of huge advance warning in unemployment stats in advance of the next recession are unlikely to find it.

Mike Shedlock / Mish/