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Initial Claims Trend Turns Up

Initial State Unemployment Claims  2021-01-14 Report

Initial claims bottomed at 711,000 on November 7, 2020 and have been rising in a choppy fashion since then.

Continued Claims

Continued State Unemployment Claims  2021-01-14 Report

Continued claims lag initial claims by a week. Continued claims appear to have bottomed and likely have. 

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A number of people dropped off the rolls because they expired all of their weekly benefits. 

Although Congress extended emergency benefits such as PUA and PEUC, those programs expired for a short while. Numbers for those programs are even more distorted so I will wait for a bit to comment.  

Jobs Recovery Has Gone Into Reverse

Nonfarm Payrolls 2020-12

Last Friday I noted Jobs Decline for the First Time in 8 Months

Today's unemployment claims number strengthen the idea the jobs recovery has stalled.