Initial Claims Trend Turns Up

Initial State Unemployment Claims  2021-01-14 Report

Initial claims bottomed at 711,000 on November 7, 2020 and have been rising in a choppy fashion since then.

Continued Claims

Continued State Unemployment Claims  2021-01-14 Report

Continued claims lag initial claims by a week. Continued claims appear to have bottomed and likely have. 


A number of people dropped off the rolls because they expired all of their weekly benefits. 

Although Congress extended emergency benefits such as PUA and PEUC, those programs expired for a short while. Numbers for those programs are even more distorted so I will wait for a bit to comment.  

Jobs Recovery Has Gone Into Reverse

Nonfarm Payrolls 2020-12

Last Friday I noted Jobs Decline for the First Time in 8 Months

Today's unemployment claims number strengthen the idea the jobs recovery has stalled.


Last Week's Alleged Improvement in Unemployment Claims Was Just Revised Away

Jobless claims for the week ending February 6 were reported last week as 793,000. That was supposedly a sign of a strong job recovery. But it didn't happen.

Unemployment Claims More Than Double Last Week's Record Total

Initial unemployment claims more than double last weeks total, and last week was then the largest in history.

16.78 Million Unemployment Claims in Last 3 Weeks

Unemployment claims rose 6.606 million in the week of April 4, the third consecutive miserable week.