No Progress Since October 3

On October 3, initial unemployment claims were 767,000. Since then, initial claims meandered from a November 7 low of 711,000 to a high of 927,000 on January 9. 

Last week claims were 725,000. This week they jumped to 770,00 above where they were at the beginning of October.

Continued Claims

Continued State Unemployment Claims  2021-03-18 Report

We have seen slow progress in continued unemployment claims but much of this is masked by people expiring all of their state benefits and falling off the roles onto various federal programs.

The federal numbers are so skewed by fraud, reporting errors, and double counting distortions that I stopped posting them.

Powell Says the True Unemployment Rate is Actually 10%

Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented that the true unemployment rate is 10%.

I agree. For discussion, please see How Did the Fed Conclude the Real Unemployment Rate Was 10% in January?


On March 5, following the latest jobs report and using Powell's methodology I calculated The Labor Force Adjusted Unemployment Rate is Still 10%.


Last Week's Alleged Improvement in Unemployment Claims Was Just Revised Away

Jobless claims for the week ending February 6 were reported last week as 793,000. That was supposedly a sign of a strong job recovery. But it didn't happen.