Unemployment Classifications
The above image is Table A-11 from the monthly jobs report.
My chart shows all of the lines highlighted in yellow.
The note explains why the numbers may not add up. They never do. The total of everything in yellow is 11,018.000.
Separately, the BLS says the “total unemployed” is 11,061,000. That’s the official number but it is realistically low by many millions.
Great Recession vs Pandemic
The trend of the line in red, “Not Temporary Layoffs” is troubling.
The BLS says there are 4,507,000 “not temporary” layoffs and 3,684,000 “permanent” layoffs.
I wonder how many people think they will be called back, but won’t?
If people tell the BLS they think they will be called back, the BLS labels them temporary.
The BLS counts “permanent” job losses but only as a subset of the classification “job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs.”
The superset of temporary plus non-temporary is 7,712,000.
The BLS reporting seems more than a bit artificial especially since no one really knows what states will do with restaurants and bars.
Number of People Unemployed for 27 Weeks or More
There are currently 3,556,000 who have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer.
The BLS labels that “long-term” unemployment.
Some of the long-term unemployed over the age of 60 will be forced into retirement just to have some money coming in. Others will go bankrupt.
Expect the number in this category to rise dramatically and keep rising for perhaps a year after the recession is over.
More Shutdowns Means More Bankruptcies
- Ohio Gov. Restricts Weddings, Threatens to Close Businesses
- 24 States Reach Their Highest Level of Covid Hospitalizations
- Utah Governor Mandates Masks and Restricts Gatherings
- El Paso Shut Down as 10 Mobile Morgues Fill Up
States are increasing lockdowns again except this time there is no pandemic program in place to deal with the mess.
Layoffs and bankruptcies will soar.
Already, Hundreds of Companies That Got PPP Loans Have Gone Bankrupt and that only counts the large companies.
Thousands of small companies have undoubtedly gone under.
This is an economic disaster no matter what distinction the BLS makes between “temporary”, “permanent”, and “long-term”.
Mish
Everybody sees the need for more stimulus…..except the Republicans in the Congress. Even Alan Greenspan.
Correction: “[un]realistically low”
But what do we do?
Thats the question.
Facially untrue.
18.2/million comes nowhere close the deaths registered by European countries.
Italy is at 781/million, Belgium at 1268.
Any claims that some fact proves this or that is absurd if it lacks all context.
This is about the weekly death rate this week, but that means nothing since various jurisdictions have experienced peaks and waves at completely different time periods.
Out of context “facts” are in fact lies, propaganda, cherry-picking.
Well this is the new normal for a few months until the vaccine becomes widely distributed.
It is most definitely an unmitigated disaster.
All that potential basic demand gone as workers laid off en masse – poof – adding even more downward pressure on local employment.
The stress will scar deeply across all age groups. Behaviours will change as a consequence. What the hell can be done about it?
No one gets through this without some impact.
By nature I’m not someone that likes to see interventionist policies/government but the time it can take for market forces alone to sort this out will see massive social upheaval, mental health problems, family breakdowns.
If lucky enough to dodge the worst dovwe sit by and spectate or do something? Soendca little more? What?
The super wealthy can only eat one meal at a time, live in one house at a time. Encouraging them to invest to get business funds out fast might help others keep food on their table and a roof over their head. Not so much tax the wealth as force it to go where it can help quickly.
If lucky enough to dodge the worst do we sit by and spectate or do something? Spend a little more? What?
Market forces don’t work as the virus doesn’t care. If Trump would have used the defense production act, the economy would be more geared towards the pandemic. I can’t name a single thing Trump did right on Covid management. All he had to do was one or two things but he refused. Who got wealthy because of this ? The billionaires got billions more because of Fed bailouts to the stock market, small business bailouts that went mostly to Trump contributors. Literally everything was done for friends of Trump. Trump should be prosecuted for voluntary manslaughter. I voted for him in 2016 but never imagined he would put himself before the country during a pandemic. This is simply the biggest failure of any leader in modern times.
I didn’t really want Biden to win until I read that. Of course, it’s more of an issue of wanting Trump out. I just wish there was a better alt.
Not to pick on you, however, what about Trump made you believe that he wasn’t going to be a failure?
It has been known way before the 2016 election that:
He has narcissist personalty.
He has never run a big organization at all.
His business have always been transnational. Do a deal go to the next one. No long term strategy
He has never “reported” to shareholders or to board of directors.
He has bankrupted many times.
He has been investigated for many many years for potential tax fraud.
And I (and anyone who is objective) can go on and on.
There was absolutely zero chance that he was going to be a good president. Please don’t say “well he was better than Hillary” because there is no way you (or anyone) can prove that. A Hillary with one of the two hoses controlled by republicans was a better choice
BTW in case you haven’t noticed Trump was just a tool for the extreme right of the republican party. All the things he “got” were republican’s wants: Lower taxes for the very wealthy and corporations. Judges of the right everywhere including supreme court.
What he wanted (but republicans didn’t) was push to the side by republicans
Better health care
Wall
Pull out of the middle east
Price controls for drugs
See Trump was nothing more than atool
Hillary & the war mongers would have started more wars and dropped more bombs.
We have been dropping bombs (by proxy) no stop for years. Trump wanted to bomb Iran the only reason it didn’t happen is that he probably got distracted by following a red dot of a laser pointer that someone is using at the WH…
It is simple, if you have a 400 year family business and needed to hire a new CEO, would you hire someone that keeps bankrupting continuoslly, who refuses to show you his amazing school grades while bragging about how great they were ? I wouldn’t.
O/T
Ray Dalio
” My problems with Bitcoin being an effective currency are simple. They are that:
Bitcoin is not very good as a medium of exchange because you can buy much with it (I presume that’s because it’s too volatile for most merchants to use, but correct me if I’m wrong)…
it’s not very good as a store-hold of wealth because it’s volatility is great and has little correlation with the prices of what I need to buy so owning it doesn’t protect my buying power, and…
if it becomes successful enough to compete and be threatening enough to currencies that governments control, the governments will outlaw it and make it too dangerous to use.
Also, unlike gold which is the third highest reserve assets that central banks own, I can’t imagine central banks, big Institutional investors, businesses or multinational companies using it. If I’m wrong about these things I would love to be corrected. Thank you.”
He misses a main point. Before anything currency is worth what people feel it is worth, goes for gold, fiat etc. You can have an established currency that is stable/widely understood and used because of that, one that is forced, or one that is finding new value that people see as being also an investment because of its rising price or because it holds a combined ability that is not matched and therefore should be held. As BTC is tradable to more widely understood currencies, as well as directly if chosen so between parties, it has merit whatever its price is, the actual level that price is is in reality irrelevant as long as the swings in it are not extreme. That is what the market does and is doing now, it is discovering its price and volatility, which ironically would tend to decrease as price goes up barring outright failure (for whatever reason, various of which are equally apolicable to other currency) or intervention. A thousand dollar swing over ten thousand value is much more extreme than over a hundred thousand value. It is not that he is wrong either, some influences on currency value are much more subtle than any learned model, and some are false or misguided as well. Even he is looking at it like a competition of price worth because his comment is in reaction to price change, that may not be so, it is as possible people are choosing a lesser value but the price rewards them all the same. It is beyond academic analysis at a certain point, and funnily with his experience of inflation crisis you might think he would see the possible benefit or attraction of a simple, decentralised, low issuance standard ?
Not sure why I’m writing this here, where else and he asked.
I don’t care how high bitcoin goes, to me, it’s a scam. The only reason to buy it is because you think you can sell it for more to an even bigger fool.
The entire attraction only exists because of the extreme scarcity of bitcoin. So….it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy if enough people think it can be a store of value.
As a medium of exchange bitcoin is a hopeless failure, because it is way too slow…..however, there is no real problem now with using OTHER cryptocurrencies for exchange..at least from a theoretical standpoint.
All the critiques Dali makes are legitimate…..but BTC has already created its own new class of billionaires…..and so there is a demand for it….as a store of value, by some people. I doubt it will go to zero….Volatile, you bet.
Central banks and governments, once they understand how crypto works, will embrace the use of their own sovereign cryptocurrencies….because it is the best tool ever invented to accomplish financial repression and to eliminate tax cheating.
The ECB is onboard with this……but the Fed is a little slower…and I think it has more to do with the optics than anything else….and/or some indecision over eliminating cash, which still might be unpopular.
Even in central banks embraced cryptocurrencies, they wouldn’t use BTC. They would issue their own currencies.
Yes, I understand that.
Good points!. BTC is interesting. Most of the early adopters are really not selling, thus the float is low.
In the last run to $19k a few years ago. They found out a lot of the Trading was fake and was suckering people into the game. Could be this time too.
Also, 65% of the hash power is controlled by China miners that can be counted on 2 hands. BTC was supposed to be decentralized.
Then they keep forking. Even though there is only supposed to be about 22 million at the end of the day, all the forks have created another 80 million coins I think. Then people use the old coins to go and buy the original BTC again. So it is really not infinite.
Finally, does anyone use it to buy anything?
That being said, why is a baseball card or a basket ball card worth millions? Just a picture of a person on a small piece of cardboard that cost a few pennies to produce. It is not like a Picaso or Rembrandt painting that is unique.
Have you ever read Reminisces of a Stock Operator? Do you remember the term “bucket shop”? Crypto exchanges are the bucket shops of the 21st century.
Bitcoin…and in fact all cryptos…are horribly manipulated…primarily by the fat cats who own the crypto exchanges. One has to be very nimble to trade cryptos…and it’s still easy to lose because a few big players can move the markets at will…and they often do.
Nobody uses bitcoin to buy anything in the legitimate world of commerce. But there are several alt coins that would work fine for commerce…but all of them are still really volatile. A state-backed crypto, though, would be no more volatile than regular fiat currency.
Yes, bitcoin has been diluted by all the forks.but there is still a very low float, as you said. And bitcoin is about the only crypto that most institutions might want to own….it has its proponents….I’m not one of them…but I like some of the alt coins…..the ones that aren’t mined.
Sovereign cryptos, when they are developed, won’t be mined.
The best use of crypto up until now is getting around capital controls and offshoring money……but bitcoin doesn’t work for that too well anymore since governments learned how to trace it. Monero still works fine though, and is untraceable AFAIK.
Bitcoin gets used in countries with hyperinflation, like Venezuela and Turkey. Volatility is relative.
I meant to say not finite
It is time for UBI, based upon your social cedit score. Clean up your Fcebook posts now.
I brought all the employees back who wanted to come back….except for one…and it looks like we won’t be adding that job back anytime soon….can’t really afford to, with our new normal.
How does the 3.5 million missing from the labor force work into this, seasonally adjusted:
Oct. 2019 – 164,401
Oct. 2020 – 160,867
There is probably more missing since the labor force grows over the year. Seems lots of these would be older folks that just can’t see the point in looking for work given the conditions. I would consider them permanently laid off.
We have done very well this year thanks to the pandemic so I am grateful for that aspect of it. Still, you have to be angered by the way government on all levels has handled this putting so many millions of Americans livelihood at risk. It could have been handled so much differently.
With hindsight yes.
Gov is useless at forecasting either good or bad events.
Granted, they should have forecast worse case outcome, they did little.
Well it doesn’t help when the following things happen:
Don’t blame government when you know its the specific administration at fault. Biden and Obama did much better at risk management for the American people.
There was a pallet of American money and ventilators that left America for China on February 7. You never hear about that…
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I’m grateful my job is contractually guaranteed.
I think short term, things will be bad, but long term we’ll come out better. The weak businesses will fail and be replaced by stronger businesses. For example, there are probably 10 Chinese restaurants and 20 fast food places within a 5 minute drive from my house. No need for that many. Maybe 5 would be more reasonable. The survivors will get more business and they’ll be stronger than they would be if everyone survived.
Living life easy in hammock of low expectations…
It will strengthen the buigs overall and squeeze the little. Concentrating pricing power.
My company is in the commercial air travel business, and an e-mail was recently sent announcing buyouts for executives and furloughs continuing into 2021. Even with promises of a vaccine and Boeing 737-Max certification , business isn’t expected to bottom until 2023.
It appears that the money that normally was spent for travel has been spent on home furniture. Those sectors are on fire.
Given an effective vaccine will make things normal by next summer under a Biden administration, I think we can safely say business will pickup next summer.