As one might expect, Econoday sees signs of life.

Today's factory orders report, down 1.4 percent at the headline level but showing life underneath, closes the book on what was a mixed to soft month of January for manufacturing. Aircraft has been a bright spot for the factory sector and mitigates what is a 28 percent downswing in January. Excluding transportation equipment, where aircraft and also motor vehicles are tracked and which were also weak with a 0.5 percent decline, factory orders fell 0.3 percent but follow impressive 0.8 and 0.4 percent gains in the prior two months.

The split between the report's two main components shows a 0.8 percent rise for nondurable goods -- the new data in today's report where strength is tied to petroleum and coal -- and a 3.6 percent drop for durable orders which is 1 tenth less weak than last week's advance report for this component.

Orders for computers and consumer products are highlights of the report as is a 0.6 percent rise in total shipments. But shipments of core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) are not part of the good news, falling 0.1 percent in the month for a 2 tenth downward revision from the initial reading and which gets business investment off to a slow first-quarter start. And orders for January core capital goods are revised 1 tenth lower to a 0.3 percent decline that follows December's 0.5 percent dip.


Unfilled orders are another of the report's weaknesses, down 0.3 percent in a reading that, unlike regional and private surveys, does not point to capacity stresses nor immediate inflationary risks.

This report is a reminder that not all the data on the factory sector are strong and underscores the second straight no change reading in the manufacturing component of the previously released industrial production report for January.

Econoday can find signs of life on a rock in a vacuum. Much prior strength was either in aircraft or was hurricane-related.

Mike "Mish"

Factory Order Details Disappoint Again

Factory orders beat the Econoday Consensus estimate of 1.1% by 0.1 percentage points but the good news stops there.

Factory Orders Rise As Expected, Fueled By Aircraft Orders

Factory orders rose 3.0% in June a bit more than the Econoday consensus estimate of 2.7%. Excluding transportation, orders fell.

Factory Orders Rise In Line With Consensus

Factory orders are up 1.0% matching the Econoday consensus estimate.

Factory Orders, Except Aircraft, Fizzle Once Again

Factory orders for March came in at 0.2%, below the Econoday consensus estimate of 0.4%. Taking into account a 0.2 percentage point upgrade in February, the consensus estimate is on the money.

Factory Orders Up 1.2%, Led by Transportation, Well Under Consensus

Factory orders rose 1.2% in February vs a consensus estimate of 1.7%. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.1%.

Little Signs of Life in Import and Export Prices

Import prices rose only 0.1% in December despite a 1.8% jump in energy. Export prices fell 0.1%.

Durable Goods Orders Dive 3.7%

The consensus got the direction right but not the magnitude. Economists expected durable goods orders to drop 2.0%.

Another Soft Factory Orders Report, Down 0.5 Percent, 4th Decline in 5 Months

New orders fell an expected 0.5% and the trend is clearly negative.

Factory Orders for November Drop 0.6% vs Consensus 0.2% Gain

The December factory orders report was due today but the shutdown delayed two reports and only November was released.