by Mish

The last two times the survey plunged this much, the US was already in recession.

Is it different this time?

I like to credit my sources. I picked that chart up from Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

In turn, Sonders picked that up from Evercore ISI.

I added the recession bars and comments.

Each month, Evercore conducts a State Tax Receipts Survey across 16 states capturing 64% of the US population.

Unlike Sonders, I am not willing to state second GDP quarter will likely be up vs. first quarter.

Second Quarter GDP Estimates

  1. New York Fed Nowcast June 3: 2.4% New York Fed Nowcast Up to 2.4% (I’ll Take “The Under”); Modeling Error on Unemployment Rate?
  2. Atlanta Fed GDPNow June 1: 2.5%GDPNow Forecast Dips to 2.5% Following Construction Report
  3. Markit June 3: 0.7% to 0.8%Composite PMI Flirts With Contraction; Markit Chief Economist Estimates GDP 0.7-0.8%
  4. ISM June 3: 1.6%Non-Manufacturing ISM Much Weaker Than Expected

Manufacturing Productivity

For productivity discussion, please see Productivity Declines 0.6%, Labor Costs Rise 4.5%; What’s Going On?

Recession?

Many things are outright screaming recession.

I expect huge revisions on numerous fronts. And I am not the only one.

For revision discussion, please see BLS Says Jobs Openings Up; Actually, Openings Falling Fast!

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Surefire Recession Signal in Pictures

The strength of inversions widened today. That's a strong recession warning, but it is not the actual recession signal.

Credit Spreads Signal Recession

$176bn worth of corporate bonds has fallen from 'A' to 'BBB' so far this quarter - the highest since late 2015.

Canadian and Australian Yield Curves Invert- Clear Recession Signals

Those looking for clear recession signals in Canada and Australia have them. Portions of the Canadian and Australian yield curves are now inverted. Canada has been in a state of inversion for at least four weeks.

US, Germany, Japan in Manufacturing Recessions: Full-Blown Recessions Coming Up

The US, Japan, Germany, and the Eurozone manufacturing PMIs are in contraction. Recessions will follow.

Flattening of the Yield Curve in Pictures; Is an Inversion Necessary to Signal a Recession?

Curve watchers Anonymous has an eye on the yield curve. Here is a snapshot of year-end-closing values from 1998-12-31 through 2015-12-31.

China Labels US Tax Plan a "Gray Rhino"

In response to US tax legislation, China plans measures to counter threats of increased capital flight.

US Recession Odds Hit 55% According to Deutsche Bank Model

A Deutsche Bank yield curve model says the odds of a US recession are now 55%. Specifically, the model notes the flattening of the yield curve, something I have mentioned numerous times recently.

US Manufacturing PMI Declines First Time Since September 2009

According to the Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI survey, manufacturing activity in the US declined for the first time since September 2009.

Canada Recession Signals: Retail Sales Unexpectedly Dip; Loonie Sinks; Bank of Canada Ponders Easing

Despite having a massive property bubble, the Bank of Canada discussed cutting rates on Wednesday to stimulate the economy.