Vaccination Status vs Hospitalization Rates: How Can Anyone Deny This Data?

New Hampshire

Nearly two-thirds of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in New Hampshire unvaccinated

Virginia    

Case Rates by Vaccination Status

Washington

COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths by Vaccination Status

Canada

Number of confirmed COVID-19 cases hospitalized in Canada from December 14, 2020 to November 27, 2021, by vaccination status

The facts continually speak for themselves. The best thing you can do for your health and well being is get vaccinated. 

Yet it keeps coming up again.

About Getting Vaccinated – Just Tonight

Foolishness Never Stops 

It easy to find one day or one report here or there that is contrary. Fools use such things as proof of something ignoring the overwhelming preponderance of data.

But let’s not confuse good medical advice with unconstitutional mandates at the federal level. 

Instead, lets focus on the good news, bad, news and potential best news. 

Bad News 

The bad news is stubborn anti-vaxxers are filling up the hospitals once again. 

Good News 

Fewer of them are dying. (Some extremists may consider that bad news too.)

Potential Best News 

The potential best news in all of this is looking ahead. 

Omicron is so infectious, that many if not most of the unvaccinated are likely to get it. Then if antibodies do what they normally do, this may be the last big wave of hospitalizations and deaths.

Meanwhile, the cure for stupidity and stubbornness is frequently hospitalization and sometimes death, even if the vast majority survive. 

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$blankman
$blankman
2 years ago

Mish, I think it’s not so much that people deny “the”
data—as that they resist the very nature of probabilistic empiricism, and so cherry-pick
whatever data supports their preferred beliefs and delusions of surety.

LCP
LCP
2 years ago
I would like to know how much money has passed from the US government to drug companies and the UN to pass out vaccinations to foreign entities. I would like to know how much money has passed on to our congress persons to go along with this craze. I would also like to know how all this money is used to cow people into compliance.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
2 years ago
Reply to  LCP
Every single penny the US, as well as any other, government; has ever spent (literally every single copper penny. Not an exaggeration), on “supporting housing and homeownership”; has been 100.{infinite zeroes}% nothing but negative. There’s literally not one single instance, in all of history, where even a single copper penny’s worth of “housing policy,” has not been purely bad, negative, criminal (per any law having any validity) and destructive. Combined, such “policies” (even if many may be well inteded by the illiterate idiots supporting them) have killed more people than all famous dictators combined several times over.
Yet even that, is still a pretty darned poor argument for voluntarily opting for staying homelessness and living on the street through a cold winter….
granite
granite
2 years ago
Any complete report would also include data on myocarditis, long term immune system suppression, the lack of proper drug testing and the suppression of information and spreading of lies about inexpensive drugs that could have saved many of the lives that have instead been sacrificed for profit.
Jackula
Jackula
2 years ago
The thing I find most annoying here in the US is we ignore the natural immunity from having had Covid. I’m getting real tired of folks at all levels trying to force another jab in me when I’ve already had Covid and was not completely certain until I after I had my J & J jab.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  Jackula
But you’ll have better, super-duper immunity if you get the booster shot.  You’ll positively radiate immunity to all around you!
/s
Mike 2112
Mike 2112
2 years ago
So what’s the data say about mRNA vaccines 5 yrs after injection? 10 yrs?
How many boosters will you get before throwing in the towel?
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
2 years ago
Reply to  Mike 2112
“So what’s the data say about mRNA vaccines 5 yrs after injection? “
So far, it says pretty much nothing.
Which; considering the number of doses given, the time since the programs were started, and how “all” natural phenomena follow predictably shaped bell curves; is very confidence inspiring indeed.
Thalamus
Thalamus
2 years ago
The problem with CDC data is its bogus and leads to wrong conclusions, like vaccines are good.  The WHO, CDC and NIH (all the same cronies) cheat, lie and steal, to get people to take the perfect weapon.  Doctors don’t report the truth because it will cost their license.  Question:  how did the Canadian lady from Cabin Talk predict this pandemic in Nov 2019?  That’s only possible if there were data points to see and it was preplanned.  If it was preplanned, then it isn’t safe to take their cure.   
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
2 years ago
Let s face it , you can NOT expect vaccinated people to admit that maybe, just maybe, they ve been bamboozled by B Pharma, its corrupt cronies and by equally corrupt and/or clueless politicians !  Recognising that they are now heavily dependent on their pushers for the rest of the foreseeable  future is no option ….they need fn SHOTS !
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
OMG! ANOTHER global conspiracy! I am shaken to my core! Do go on!
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
2 years ago
  In Europe the double jabbed are no longer considered  vaccinated , it is exactly those people that get seriously sick with a negative immune system ! The third booster will set them socially free again to catch covid with mostly mild symptoms, contagious like hell though, 2 months later the endless story repeats itself ; your fourth booster ! otherwise you lose all your vaxxed status privileges again and will definitely get sick with your defences even more fckd up !   In the meantime and under those utterly insane circumstances in particular, numbers can be tampered with discretionarily with the sole purpose of boosting the booster agenda again …. 
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
There is talk of 6 shots in the Netherlands now!  More is always better, yes?
Dr. Odyssey
Dr. Odyssey
2 years ago
Comment.
Having spent the past 2.5 decades in clinical research (currently specializing in Phase I, FIH studies), I have had so many jaw dropping moments over the past 18 months! There has to be punishment for the damage these bureaucrats have done to the medical and research fields, or this madness will continue.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Odyssey
In the Western movies, there is usually a posse chasing after these people with plenty of rope available to string them up.
az_dirt
az_dirt
2 years ago
Anytime someone says they can tell from PCR or rapid antigen tests which strain of covid it is you know they’re at best misinformed.  The only way to tell is to do sequence the genome of a sample.  Companies like T-Gen in Phoenix do that.  They don’t sequence every positive person (some countries do,) but a representative sample.
here’s the dashboard.  Gets updated every month.   As of Dec 21 (so a week ago,) they’re reporting 7.4% are Omicron, the rest various Delta strains in Arizona.
JeffD
JeffD
2 years ago

Very few people claim vaccination does not reduce hospitalization risk.

prumbly
prumbly
2 years ago
Reply to  JeffD
And yet more people have been hospitalized with Covid in 2021 (with the vaccine) than in 2020 (without the vaccine).
Vaccine programs are intended to protect POPULATIONS, not individuals, and clearly these Covid vaccines have FAILED when you evaluate their effect on the population. Silly anecdotal stories of dubious origin that more people in XXX hospital were unvaccinated than vaccinated are completely missing the point. If you want to play that game, it’s easy to find many hospitals where most of the Covid patients are fully vaccinated (e.g. Jerusalem hospital where >80% are fully vaccinated: link to peckford42.wordpress.com ).
JeffD
JeffD
2 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
Couple of things:  Covid began to ramp up in March 2020, so only existed for nine months. We have had 12 months of full on Covid in 2021. 2) You have to use per capita data for a fair comparison: what percentage of people within the unvaccinated portion of the population have been hospitalized vs what percentage of people within the vaccinated portion of the population have been hospitalized.
My major complaint about Covid hospitalization data is that there have been major data collection issues, not properly separating people hospitalized *with* Covid versus those hospitalized *because of* Covid. I’m convinced that most of this poor collection is driven by profit (and liability) motive at hospitals.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
2 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
“And yet more people have been hospitalized with Covid in 2021 (with the vaccine) than in 2020 (without the vaccine).”
And more in 2020, than in 2019….
And in 2019, compared to 2018…
Just as weirdly, more people in Wuhan died of Covid after the imposition of the lockdown, than did before…. Covid must, no doubt, be one of those special snowflake transmissible hobgoblins, which transmits more readily between people when people have no contact whatsoever…. No wonder such a superbug has also found a way to become more potent, the more immunity against it (by natural as well as artificial means), that the target population manages to acquire.
prumbly
prumbly
2 years ago
How about factoring in all the people killed or seriously injured by the vaccine? Oh wait – you can’t, they refuse to collect and publish that data.
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
Therefore, anything you make up is true!
prumbly
prumbly
2 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Or, if you know what you’re doing, you can make realistic estimates, such as below. No wonder the government won’t reveal the data!
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
They do collect some of that data in VAERS but they never talk about it.
Carl_R
Carl_R
2 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
VAERS is not data. It is a collection of anecdotes. It is a starting place to find topics to research, nothing more.
RonJ
RonJ
2 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
Double blind RCT’s are a collection of anecdotes of the people in the study.
Carl_R
Carl_R
2 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
You might want to read up on the difference between data and anecdotes. If you are suggesting that double blind studies are done by including whatever people wander in off the street and say “I want to be included”, and that their outcomes are self-reported without verification, the peer review process is designed to weed those out.
Jackula
Jackula
2 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
However I have been told by doctors that the CDC calls and puts pressure on anyone reporting an event so if nothing else its probably under-reporting problems
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
2 years ago
Reply to  Jackula
“However I have been told by doctors that the CDC calls and puts pressure on anyone reporting an event so if nothing else its probably under-reporting problems”
They no doubt are. In totalitarian countries (aka countries with fiat currencies), it’s always easiest to tow the party line.
But do people really believe “they” are singularly powerful enough to cover up reality sufficiently to alter the direction, not just the magnitude, of an argument of the sheer size Mish’ graphs make? And also, at the same time, that there aren’t bigger problems arising from a “government” THAT supremely powerful, than some vaccine trivialities?
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
As you have been informed numerous times in the past, the VAERS db was created by the CDC back in 1990 and is maintained by them.  If it wasn’t of value, then the CDC would have eliminated it by now.  D’oh.
Carl_R
Carl_R
2 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
As I have pointed out to you in the past, VAERS does not have to be data to be of value. One of the best ways to find questions worthy of research is to collect anecdotes. VAERS is just that, a collection of anecdotes. Researchers browse VAERS reports to see if any questions arise that appear to be worth researching, if if they do, a research project is initiated and data is collected.
There is an old saying, “the plural of anecdote is not data”. Jojo, I was just trying to save you from looking like an idiot, but apparently you don’t care, so never mind me. Continue calling anecdotes data if you like.
Carl_R
Carl_R
2 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
I appreciate the discussion. It has reminded me of something I learned long ago, but had forgotten. Once, long ago, American schools were the best in the world. Over the last fifty years, American schools have fallen from 1st to near the bottom in Math and Science education among industrialized countries, though still ahead of third world countries. The puzzling thing is that even though American students finished near last, when students were polled about how they did after the tests, American students were more confident in their answers and performance than students of any other country. It seems, they don’t know much about Science, but they are are confident that they do.
LCP
LCP
2 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
In my state, now only about 25% of students graduate from high school and are proficient in reading and math. Many of those not proficient, go on to college and huge indebtedness. I find that any thing coming from the government, which is what runs public education, is suspect. Money handed out or certification being threatened are the culprits, and that’s where the government’s power comes from. In the funeral industry, the government hands out payment of the funeral up to a certain provable amount if the COVID is on the death certificate. You’re absolutely correct.
Carl_R
Carl_R
2 years ago
Thanks for another fine article, Mish. One thing I’ve learned in they two years of Covid is that they is no benefit to refuting disinformation. The people disseminating the disinformation can find/make up new disinformation far faster than you can refute it, and they won’t believe the refutation anyway.
JeffD
JeffD
2 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
Like Fauci, king of disinformation? CNN fact check: “Fauci, along with several other US health leaders, initially advised people not to wear masks”
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
No, what you should have learned is that you fail to read articles you reference, which is why I assume you stopped providing refs for your posts.  You make up batcrap stuff and draw similar conclusions that rarely make sense.
Carl_R
Carl_R
2 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
There are certainly people who post here who don’t read the articles they post, and many more who don’t understand what they do read. There are others who are merely trolls. In either case, serious discussion is impossible.
RonJ
RonJ
2 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
I understand that most people winding up in the hospital have had no early medical treatment for Covid-19. Thus whether more unCovaxxed are winding up in the hospital, than Covaxxed, means nothing.
Dr. Wagshul kept all of his Uncovaxxed patients out of the hospital, using Ivermectin. Last winter, a doctor that posts on Denninger, said the first 3 months he used IVM, he had no Covid-19 patients wind up in the hospital.
Hospitals simply don’t have to be over run with Covid-19 cases. For the most part, they almost never did. But the FDA obstructed use of therapies which would have dramatically reduced the number of hospitalized and dead from Covid-19.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
Because if the FDA had embraced these therapies, then they would not have been able to grant an EUA to the CoVax shots.  If this isn’t evidence of corruption, then I don’t know what is!  the FDA/CDC chose Big Pharma profits and connections over keeping people out of the hospital.
P.S. You have posted the info above regularly but Carl and others continue to ignore it.  That is annoying.
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
More anecdotes, with comments full of kookery: link to sorryantivaxxer.com
RonJ
RonJ
2 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Your kookie comments are sufficient.
http://realnotrare.com has stories by vaccine victims. Some of the Covaxxed are sorry they got vaxxed.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
2 years ago
There are people dying of non-covid related health issues because the unvaccinated are clogging the hospitals again. 
JeffD
JeffD
2 years ago
The hosptals are clogged because they have to operate below capacity because the unvaccinated nurses have been fired.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Tough on them.
LCP
LCP
2 years ago
The state of professionals manning hospitals is one of the health issues not discussed. Hospitals will be clogged because people are waiting for help too.
USAFoxes
USAFoxes
2 years ago
Mish = Trump.  So wrapped up in his own pride that he cannot process anything except what he is full of.  That’s why he ignores all arguments and data that don’t fit whatever he says.
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  USAFoxes
The irony here is hilarious 
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
A few fresh anecdotes from a family member who is an executive  in the medical industry in a major city:
So many employees are sick that clinics are being closed.
There have been brawls over parking in the clinic that remains open… that has a huge parking lot that is never full.  They are completely overrun with symptomatic people wanting tests.
They are short on tests, so they are telling people “if you’re sick, behave as if it’s covid and quarantine for 5 days.”
They had a Christmas party a couple weeks back, and almost none of them were masked (doctors, nurses, etc.). They are all triple vaxxed and felt safe.  This same group was refusing patients at the beginning of the pandemic because they couldn’t get masks.
The test that they are doing are coming in about half and half Delta and Omicron.
Most of the people that have been sick that work for her have gotten better in 3 or 4 days.  Don’t know the breakdown of omicron vs. delta.
I figured it’d be a week after the Christmas gatherings before it kicked off, but apparently things are moving faster now.  I guess in the next couple weeks we’ll have good numbers on Omicron’s kill rate.
Plenty of conspiracy fodder there for the kooks among us.  You’re welcome.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Vaccines Do Not Stop COVID-19 Spread as Governments Claim: Legal Advocacy Group
December 22, 2021
Vaccines are not as effective in stopping the spread of COVID-19 as governments have claimed them to be, an analysis of government narratives conducted by a constitutional rights group shows.
The report ( link to jccf.ca ), published Tuesday by the Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms, found that claims made by government leaders that mandatory vaccination will reduce or stop the spread of COVID-19 are not supported by either medical science or real-life experience in the countries that have achieved the highest level of vaccination.
“Unfortunately, and contrary to government-led narratives and media coverage in both Canada and the U.S., the evidence strongly suggests vaccinations do not stop the spread of Covid—not the original strains, and not the later Delta and Omicron variants,” the Justice Centre said.
In its analysis, the legal advocacy group compared government-led narrative and what authoritative health agencies say about vaccine effectiveness in stopping the spread of the coronavirus with the actual situation in “heavily vaccinated communities,” including Israel, the United Kingdom, the U.S. state of Vermont, Gibraltar, and Sweden.
….
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
2 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Vaccines were never supposed to stop the spread of anything. They simply mitigate the symptoms so more people don’t have to be hospitalized. There is no cure for any viral illness.
RonJ
RonJ
2 years ago
Vaccines weren’t needed for mitigation. The FDA obstructed, off label pharmaceuticals do that. There are non prescription items that can mitigate, as well. The public health agencies don’t even promote the use of non prescription items to mitigate and keep more people out of the hospital.
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
2 years ago
“This is x times as likely to happen as that”, is a form of propaganda. While factually true, the statement makes a situation appear to be worse than it actually is. Whether the outcome happens 1 out of 1000 or 4 out of 1000, the odds of the worst outcome are within many people’s risk tolerance.
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  Six000mileyear
In the veritable sea of kookiness and outright stupidity in this thread, your statement rises to the top.  I award you the Golden Kookie for derangement that goes above and beyond!
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
COVID-19 variants identified in the UK
Latest updates on SARS-CoV-2 variants detected in the UK.
From:    UK Health Security Agency
Last updated:    23 December 2021 — See all updates
UKHSA publishes updated Omicron hospitalisation and vaccine efficacy analysis
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has published the latest variant technical briefing. It contains updated analysis on Omicron hospitalisation risk, vaccine efficacy against symptomatic disease from Omicron, and the COVID-19 reinfection rate.
As of 20 December, 132 individuals with confirmed Omicron have been admitted to or transferred from emergency departments. Over 40% of hospital admissions were in London. Of those patients admitted to hospital, 17 had received a booster vaccine, 74 people had 2 doses and 27 people were not vaccinated. The vaccination status was unknown for 6 people, while 8 had received a single dose. Fourteen people are reported to have died within 28 days of an Omicron diagnosis, ranging in age from 52 to 96 years old.
UKHSA analysis shows that the risk of hospital admission for an identified case with Omicron is reduced compared to a case of Delta. This analysis excludes individuals with confirmed previous COVID-19 infection. An individual with Omicron is estimated to be between 31 and 45% less likely to attend A&E compared to Delta, and 50 to 70% less likely to be admitted to hospital. This analysis is preliminary and highly uncertain because of the small numbers of Omicron cases currently in hospital, inability to effectively measure all previous infections and the limited spread of Omicron into older age groups. This is consistent with analysis published yesterday by Imperial College London and the University of Edinburgh.
….
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Covid and Corrupt Federal Statistics
James Bovard
– December 28, 2021
Federal agencies don’t count what politicians don’t want to know. President Biden and other Democrats continuously invoke “science and data” to sanctify all their Covid-19 mandates and policies, but the same shenanigans and willful omissions have characterized Covid data.
During his update on his Winter Covid Campaign on Tuesday, President Biden declared, “Almost everyone who has died from COVID-19 in the past many months has been unvaccinated.” This was true from the start of the pandemic in early 2020, until the vaccines’ efficacy began failing badly in recent months. Oregon officially classifies roughly a quarter of its Covid fatalities since August as “vaccine breakthrough deaths.” In Illinois, roughly 30 percent of Covid fatalities have occurred among fully vaccinated individuals. According to the Vermont Department of Health, “Half of the [Covid] deaths in August were breakthrough cases. Almost three-quarters of them in September were,” as well, according to Burlington, Vermont TV station WCAX.
The Biden administration guaranteed that the vast majority of “breakthrough” infections would not be counted when the Centers for Disease Control in May ceased keeping track of “breakthrough” infections unless they resulted in hospitalization or death. Ignoring that data permitted Biden to go on CNN in July and make the ludicrously false assertion: “You’re not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations.” But federal data on fully vaxxed Covid fatalities is far flimsier and less reliable than the numbers compiled by some states. Honestly recognizing the limits of vaccines could be fatal to Biden’s push for compulsory vaccinations.
The same policymakers who claim to be guided by data have little or no idea how many Americans have been hit by Covid. According to the CDC, there have been 51,115,304 Covid cases in America. But a different CDC web page estimates that there had been 146.6 million Covid infections in the US as of October 2, 2021. That CDC analysis estimated that only one in four Covid infections have been reported, which would mean that based on the latest official case numbers, more than 200 million Americans have contracted Covid. For Biden and his fellow policymakers, a potential error of 150 million Covid infections is “close enough for government work.” Relying on the lower number is convenient for policymakers who want to continue ignoring the natural immunity acquired by 199 million Americans who survived Covid infections.
….
BowserB46
BowserB46
2 years ago
I got two, then the booster.  I don’t know about long term risk, but I’m 75, and both my parents died shortly before their 80th birthdays, so I don’t have much long term to worry about.  OTOH, I’m pretty sure I don’t want to die on a ventilator with covid.
Christmas Eve, my wife and I were at the home of the daughter and family (husband, two kids 11 and 15) of my wife’s life long best friend.  Turns out, they’re anti-vax people who joke about it and claim the magic snake oil supplements they take plus periodic fasting keeps them safe.  OK.  That was Friday.  Monday 10pm she called my wife.  “I’ve been diagnosed with Covid.  The doctor recommends you get tested and quarantine.”  OK…but explain how I can do both.
Thank you very much.  I’ll not get tested unless I have symptoms, but I will stay home for a while.  I’m retired.  We have a multi gym, treadmill, ping pong table, swimming pool and spa, and big screen TVs with Netflix and Amazon, and if another freak Texas freeze hits, we have our whole house standby generator for power.  Our local supermarket delivers, as do 10 pizza places and one Mexican food place.  We have 30 bottles of wine in the wine fridge.  I think we’ll be OK for a week or two, and if we feel like it we can drive out into the country for a change of scenery. 
BUT my lifestyle has been changed because of someone who didn’t want to get vaccinated and even bragged about it.  If I were still working, and couldn’t go to work because of this, I would be really pissed, instead of just kindof pissed as I am now.
tbergerson
tbergerson
2 years ago
Reply to  BowserB46
You do realize that even if they had been vaccinated, they could still have contracted covid and you would still need to quarantine right?
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  BowserB46
Well there goes their share of the inheritance!
Esclaro
Esclaro
2 years ago
The members of the Trump Death Cult always minimize the risks of covid while maximizing the risks of the vaccines. It’s unfortunate that covid doesn’t have a 100% mortality rate – that would be the answer to my prayers for the future of the country. Maybe the next pandemic will kill them all!
BowserB46
BowserB46
2 years ago
Reply to  Esclaro
I don’t get “Trump death cult.”  Trump is the one who was criticized for stopping travel from problem places and who put the search for a vaccine in super high gear.  In his stimulus, he also have retired people a break by waiving the RMD for 2020, so those of us with savings and don’t need to withdraw from our IRA’s wouldn’t have to do so just to pay taxes.
Biden took credit for Trump’s work.  His handouts did NOT include the RMD waiver.  All he does is talk weakly or in his creepy whisper about how nothing is his fault and we need to let 29 million illegal aliens vote in American elections.  Is that the Biden Death Cult?
SJacobStern
SJacobStern
2 years ago
Reply to  Esclaro
The voices are not lying. You’re a bad person and those around you suffer for your existence.
astroboy
astroboy
2 years ago
This is a problem that screams for machine learning (artificial intelligence, basically) to dig out what’s really happening but I haven’t seen any publications using that technique. That is extremely surprising and disturbing. There is no other way to do this, statistics aren’t up to it, which is why machine learning, AI, and neural nets were invented. 
There are a lot of factors: age, obesity, diabetes, 1 vax 2 vax booster, existing cardiovascular issues, general health, race, etc etc etc, none of which tell the complete story. This is not a case of one size fits all.  Machine learning is the only to understand the relationships between each factor, statistics can’t do it. Example: are obese people less likely to get vaccinated? I’m guessing yes. In which case you’d expect a disproportionate number of hospitalizations to be unvaxxed, even though obesity is the main, or at least major, reason. But, how big a factor is that? Or, what are the odds of someone in good shape, middle aged, unvaxxed, ending up in the hospital? Vs. such a person being vaxxed? Probably not that big a difference, such people are very unlikely to end up in the hospital at all. That is going to seriously skew the statistics on the effects of being vaxxed. Or, with omicron spreading so quickly, is Mommy likely to take Junior to the ER at the first sign of a sniffle? I’m guessing that happens a lot and I believe it counts as a hospitalization.
I realize that nations/states don’t have the ability (or inclination) to parse all the data and say person A needs a vax, person B doesn’t, all they can do is campaign to have everyone vaccinated. But the CDC should be using machine learning to get a handle on the relation of risk factors and vaxxes and outcomes. The fact that we’re two years in and this has never been done, as far as I can tell, is a major screwup, scientifically and morally. 
Disclaimer: I got vaxxed, won’t get a booster, got too sick after second shot, I was scared. I also do a fair amount of machine learning for a living. Not an expert but I know enough to know covid is an ML problem.
JeffD
JeffD
2 years ago
Reply to  astroboy
Garbage in, garbage out. Details concerning the data are not being tracked for various reasons. You have to accurately record data before you can analyze it. AI is unnecessary. Simple statistics would do the trick.
ohno
ohno
2 years ago
I had one dose, due for the other.  I am constantly reminded by people how screwed up they got after the 2nd dose.   Im trying to convince myself to get it.  I read some stuff on a medical site written by md’s, dont recall the site, that believe 3 months between doses is better to lessen the side effects plus they believe it is easier on the heart.  Im at the 2 month mark.   Has anyone seen the recent remarks by the American Health Association putting a warning on mrna’s?  Last time I read something from them I believe they said you had a 1 in 4 chance of developing some kind of heart issue.  This entire situation sucks all the way around.
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  ohno
Have had 3… felt like a mild bruise the first 2.  Got rip roaring drunk after the third, so I can’t really say if it was the shot or the whiskey that made me feel crappy the next day.
az_dirt
az_dirt
2 years ago
Reply to  ohno
The “American Health Association”?   They offer training, they aren’t an organization that would have any relevance to putting out warnings.   You read some stuff on a medical site written by md’s?   The only thing that sucks is that people don’t check the disinformation.
Altogether, the researchers included 4,931,775 individuals in their
study. They followed the participants for 28 days after both their first
and second vaccine doses, between October 1, 2020, and October 5, 2021…. At follow-up, 269 people had myocarditis or myopericarditis. Of these, 40% were 12–39 years old, and 73% were male.
Carl_R
Carl_R
2 years ago
Reply to  az_dirt
Note that while myocarditis is a known side effect of the vaccines, it is also a known side effect of the virus. While 269 of 5 million vaccinated people developed myocarditis, early reports were that that 10% of people with covid did.
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Bumper crop of kooks today. I do believe this is the most ever. Keep on kookin’!
RonJ
RonJ
2 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
No one is stopping you from kooking. You have been doing rather well at it so far. You are great comic relief.
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  RonJ

Coming from an internet doctor, that means a lot. Thank you, Dr Kookenstein!

RonJ
RonJ
2 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
As i said, you do great comic relief. You just kept up the good work.
RonJ
RonJ
2 years ago
“Meanwhile, the cure for stupidity and stubbornness is frequently
hospitalization and sometimes death, even if the vast majority survive.”
People are using Horse Paste because a doctor won’t treat them with human pharmaceutical grade Ivermectin.
Or HCQ, or Fluvoxamine.  They largely work to keep people out of the hospital. It is the public health agencies that are stubborn, refusing to allow easy access to these Covid therapies.
Additionally, the Covax is not proven safe. Too many serious adverse reactions and deaths.
The COVID World post date: December 27th, 2021
New York Times Deputy Asia Editor Carlos Tejada has died from a heart attack less than 24 hours after receiving the Moderna COVID-19 booster.
The COVID World post date: December 25th, 2021
TUCUMÁN, ARGENTINA – A mother in Argentina has caused an uproar after announcing that her 3-year-old daughter has died shortly after receiving the COVID-19 vaccine. Miriam Suárez said her daughter Ámbar was vaccinated last week on December 15th and passed away a day later from sudden cardiac arrest.
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
And that’s the kooky news. Thank you, Dr. Kookenstein.  And now a report about the latest sightings of the Loch Ness Monster, but first these messages.
RonJ
RonJ
2 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
The Comedy Store is looking for new acts. You are a natural.
tbergerson
tbergerson
2 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
Real leaders would have All-of-the-Above.  We dont have that
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
2 years ago
The data is perfectly clear, but people can still find some source that fits their belief system. More tribalism and the madness of crowds.
RonJ
RonJ
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
True. 10 of 11 advisory committee members found that an Alzheimer’s drug did not work and the FDA found a way to approve it anyway.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
And the cost that drug at $56k was supposedly one of the factors that resulted in the large increase in Medicare Part B premiums for 2022.  And then a couple of week ago, the drug company announced they were going to cut the price of their drug by 50% to $28k.  I guess they will be taking a loss on every application! [lol]
RonJ
RonJ
2 years ago
 Most of the people in  the hospitals were untreated for Covid-19.
Fareed/Tyson treated 7,000 people with out a single death. Dr. Wagshul said recently, that he treated his Covid patients with Ivermectin, and none needed hospitalization. Dr. Zelenko said his HCQ protocol cut hospitalization and death by 85%.
What is so difficult to understand about that? Hospitalization comparisons are irrelevant in light of the fact that both the vaxxed and unvaxxed are both mostly not receiving early treatment from doctors, in an effort to prevent hospitalization.
HCQ, Ivermectin and Fluvoxamine: all have efficacy against Covid-19, yet have been obstructed from general use against it.
Deficit
Deficit
2 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
Thank you for your post. Potential therapeutics were ignored by the CDC and FDA. Looks like we could have kept a lot of people out of hospitals by trying these drugs. Wasn’t as profitable for the pharmaceutical companies and  FDA support of Pfizer is nice plus on the resume for being a Pfizer Board member.
get
get
2 years ago
Jeez, talk about a one-sided analysis of the ‘stats’. In Alberta, most new cases are among the vaxxed. The number of hospitalizations skews 65% unvaxxed and 35% vaxxed. Two months ago, it was 85/15 and that number will continue to skew more towards the vaxxed. It’s a mathematical inevitability.

Or how about Gibraltar which was 100%+ vaxxed and had another large wave anyways. or Ireland which was nearly 100% vaxxed but had another large wave anyways. Or Florida which is doing pretty darn good with no mandates or restrictions…but you’ll quote higher overall deaths/million without factoring in Florida high retiree population.

You also completely ignore adverse events related to vaccines which are massive. There have been more adverse reactions with covid vaccines than ALL other vaccines over the past 60 years combined including invermectin which is not a vaccine but has been prescribed 3.7 billion times.

Or how about the fact that there were 8000 more alcohol related deaths in the UK in 2020 vs. 2019. And the list goes on and on.

Worse, you make the ridiculous statement that so-called anti-vaxxers would cheer higher deaths which puts you in the same camp as NYT or CNN which are barely news orgs anymore. You also ignore the overwhelming evidence that invermectin would save lives but say absolutely nothing about it.

And you ignore the tremendous damage done to democracy, free speech and mental health overall.

I’m not anti-vax in the least. I’ve had plenty of em but I have serious reservations with mRNA vaccines which have proven to be problematic. I’m 62 but see no good reason to take these vaccines and I am waiting for novavaxx thank you very much.

Honestly, stop with the pro-vax propaganda. It’s almost like you’re happy when more of the unvaxxed die!

How’d that feel Mish? To be labelled as someone who cheers the deaths of the unvaxxed which I’m sure isn’t true but hey, it’s all about the labelling these days?

Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  get
If you’re so fragile getting a few shots and wearing a mask sometimes wrecks your mental health, you aren’t gonna make it in this world, and that’s nobody’s fault but yours.
Deficit
Deficit
2 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Masks don’t work because if they did, there would be links all over the CDC site.
The injections work on average for a few months then efficacy wanes. Interesting that some many injected people are getting sick. Oh I forgot, the narrative has changes. In March 2021 – vaccines are 95 to 100% effective in killing the virus, stop transmission, and safe. This was a huge lie since the “vaccine” was non-sterilizing.
December 2021 – vaccines were never meant to kill the virus, just reduce symptoms. 
Please explain why the injected spike protein is found in many/all organs in the body. Supposed to stay at the injection site.
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  Deficit
None of which is gonna get you through this mean old world.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  get
Novavax is the same as all the other CoVax shots – it loads your body with dangerous spike proteins to try and train the immune system to recognize Covid (which disguises itself with spike protein).  It’s a false approach to achieving Covid immunity and opens your vascular system to all kinds of future problems.
shan
shan
2 years ago
Maybe you should read/study the numbers from Steve Kirsch… link to skirsch.io. He has a $2 million dollar award for anyone who can prove his numbers wrong. Nobody has taken him up on this, but it sounds like the confidence you have in the numbers you found would stand up to his scrutiny. Also, if it is credible numbers you are looking for then you should look at Pfizer’s own phase 3 trials. The numbers do say that they prevent 1 covid case per 22,000 (1 for the vaccinated and 2 for the placebo), but the vaccinated group also had approx. 25% more deaths (all causes) than the placebo group (20 for the vaccinated vs. 14 for the placebo). Possibly, just possibly… this is why they eliminated this part of the trials?? Is it possible that just 1 of those extra deaths is due to the vaccine? If that is the case then you are damned if you do and damned if you don’t. The way I look at it is the devil you know is better than the one that you don’t. Especially when politics and money are involved. Maybe you could convince me otherwise if these pharmaceutical gave up their war profits. This is a war isn’t it? Remember… the first casualty of war is the truth.
Dr.O2
Dr.O2
2 years ago
Reply to  shan
2 million to do a dive into the data?
One of you numbers boys here should take Kirsch up on this.
Easy money no?
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  shan
You don’t make bets with kooks. They just deny deny deny.
RonJ
RonJ
2 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
You don’t take the bet when you have no case, which is what the public health agencies have. They can’t defend themselves, when the data is on Kirsch’s side.
Kirsch is quoting Pfizer’s own data, in shan’s commentary.
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  RonJ

A bet with a Kook is no bet at all.

RonJ
RonJ
2 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Why are the public health agencies, kooks?
Kirsch has their data and is using it properly.
honestcreditguy
honestcreditguy
2 years ago
now add out of shape obese people to your graph, this has been an obesity death pandemic here in the US and Mexico…BMI overachievers and super stars in the world…..
73% of all deaths in the US are obesity related….now throw in just old people dying, your odds are better boogie boarding off of Morro Bay in Great White owned waters…..
Enough of the Vaccination bs, its saving a bunch of overweight land elephants we call Americans….
Yooper
Yooper
2 years ago
Like Bill Maher or not, he was saying the exact same thing last summer. #1 biggest impact to COVID risk generally is obesity.

…and then he was attacked for not being body-positive by the left :/

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
2 years ago
Anyone who so easily believes the snowball in the Senate chamber disproves climate change science will swallow small sample size lies all day long.
pimaCanyon
pimaCanyon
2 years ago
tell that to the young super-fit professional athletes.
JBbrooks
JBbrooks
2 years ago

You seek out data to support your preconceived idea, not to mention to support the decision you made, because anything to the contrary will destroy your decision and make it a poor one, something you cannot live with.   If you would take the time to read, and I mean read and read and read, not just a single article, but dozens, you’d realize that a.) the death rate isn’t sufficient to justify the opting to take the jab and b.) the side effects already seen and the likelihood of issues to be seen, further degrade the logic of taking the jab.  The data you have used can be refuted by large studies in places like the UK (entire healthcare system is nationalized, and thus all the data is passed to the main data bank).  Denmark as well.  Not to mention, do you have any idea at this point of the majority of jab-takers can even develop immunity to C19?  89 cruise ships abroad with mass breakouts of the virus among a fully jabbed group.   What if the only people that can achieve immunity is the un-jabbed and thus we eventually become the reason C19 stops ravaging the populace at large (we act as fire breaks)?  What if another strain comes along and continues to infect you guys, and no matter the total number of boosters shots taken, you still continue to get it and still have to quarantine?  What if you don’t take boosters and not taking them creates more virulent strains?  Sad to me the lack of foresight and deductive reasoning people possess.  Anyone that tries to convince me they took that jab for any other reason than because they believed it was the easy way out is a liar.  The difficult decision in this insane world we’re in (of followers) is to NOT take the jab, and THAT is the main reason most DO take it.   The takers believed they could take that jab and voila, presto-chango, everything is fine and they can go about their lives and feel they did something great (when most have never done a single great thing).  

Yooper
Yooper
2 years ago
Reply to  JBbrooks
Only observational, of course, but it’s interesting in many countries a large adoption of vaccines precede a large spike in infections. In the US, peak vaccination in April/May (when a vacc was touted as a traditional vacc and provided protection from infection), people were told life is back to normal, and they behaved as such. Surprise, 3-4 months later comes a large spike in infection.
Maybe the intent was always to allow/promote infections with the hope the vacc would keep people out of the hospitals all along knowing natural immunity was superior? This was posited by researchers last summer simply based on how the new vacc works, and as the CDC changes its’ tune weekly, the end result is the same – we all get it.
El_Tedo
El_Tedo
2 years ago
Reply to  JBbrooks
Perfectly put.  Mish has reached Scott Adams territory. The pain of admitting he has made a mistake has distorted his personality. High-risk people in the spring made a defendable decision at that time to take the jab.  But nine months later, with all we have learned, to still be recommending this experimental crap, ESPECIALLY with the virus now mutating far away from the original virus, whose spike the jabs mimic, is more than just cognitive dissonance, it is pathological.  
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  El_Tedo
Toot toot! Kook alert!
SJacobStern
SJacobStern
2 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Is that your thing? You just scroll Mish all day and say Kook like it’s a fact-based argument? Is it a sexual orientation of yours? Are you flogging yourself while you do it? Is it somehow reassuring to you that the virtual world hasn’t forgotten about your sad, pathetic existence?
Yooper
Yooper
2 years ago
Does anyone know where to look for reinfection rates? The data is obviously there, somewhere.
Here in Pittsburgh, they started reporting the COVID infections, hospitalizations, ICU, and deaths by age, but most interestingly, they’re reporting reinfections.
     This is the weekly COVID-19 report from the Allegheny County Health Department.
     For
the week of December 19-25, 2021, 6,340 infections were reported. There
were 451, or 7 percent, reinfections and 3,119 of reports, or 49
percent,       were of unvaccinated individuals. There were also 48 deaths
reported in that same time frame.
At least over the past week or two, reinfections sit at about 7% of all positive results, consistent with the research, but doesn’t break those down by vacc status. This includes people from 18 months ago like me when we first started seeing the wave.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  Yooper
CDC data collection is poor at best.  Politico has written at least a couple fo stories on this:
‘It is embarrassing’: CDC struggles to track Covid cases as Omicron looms
The U.S. was behind other countries in charting the spread of disease in the pandemic’s disastrous early months. It’s still behind as new variants threaten to disrupt the winter.
By ERIN BANCO
12/20/2021 04:30 AM EST
Holes in reporting of breakthrough Covid cases hamper CDC response
The agency originally tried to track all infections in vaccinated people, from mild to severe. But in May it decided to focus on the most severe cases.
By ERIN BANCO
08/25/2021 04:30 AM EDT
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is using outdated and unreliable data on coronavirus breakthrough infections to help make major decisions, such as who gets booster shots, according to three officials with direct knowledge of the situation.
The agency originally tried to track all infections in vaccinated people, from mild to severe. But in May it decided to focus on the most severe cases, saying that would allow it to better monitor overall conditions and make more informed, targeted policy decisions.
Forty-nine states are now regularly sending CDC information on hospitalized breakthrough patients. But more than a dozen told POLITICO that they do not have the capacity to match patients’ hospital admission data with their immunization records. Instead, those states rely on hospital administrators to report breakthrough infections. The resulting data is often aggregated, inaccurate and omits critical details for teasing out trends, such as which vaccine a person received and whether they have been fully vaccinated, a dozen state officials said.
The gaps in this crucial data stream raise questions about the Biden administration’s ability to spot and respond to changes in the virus’s behavior — such as the rapid spread of the Delta variant, which crowded out other strains — or vaccines’ performance. It also underscores the extent to which the CDC and public health departments across the country are still struggling to collect and study critical Covid-19 information 18 months after the pandemic began.
….
WarpartySerf
WarpartySerf
2 years ago
“The facts continually speak for themselves”     
You mean like the Director of the CDC Rochelle Wallensky telling us ….. ” The vaccinated do not carry the virus ”  ?
If that’s the level of honesty from the Medical Politburo –  tell it to the infected US ship sailors , fully “vaccinated” at sea , who now are out of action with over 25% of them positive.   And tell me why we should believe the CDCs “statistics”, when Rochelle’s lips are moving.   
mrusa
mrusa
2 years ago
Actually the best thing you can do for your health is to not be obese. But, it’s easier to get a mRNA shot than exhibit the discipline required to manage your own personal health.
pimaCanyon
pimaCanyon
2 years ago
Reply to  mrusa
and make sure Vit D level is 50ng/ml or higher which gives you near zero chance of being hospitalized or dying from covid. link to ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  pimaCanyon
I have a rock that keeps Covid away… wanna buy it? 
astroboy
astroboy
2 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
I don’t get your point. It’s a legitimate scientific publication. Perhaps you should read some of the scientific literature on this subject. It might change your mind. 
honestcreditguy
honestcreditguy
2 years ago
Reply to  mrusa
Obesity and old age control the death rate, if your under 75 and in good shape, your odds are worse pulling out of driveway of dying
Dutoit
Dutoit
2 years ago
Somethings are missing: statistics of deaths caused by the vaccines (provided they are  appropriately recorded), statistics for different ages. For example it would be interesting to compare the mortality rates for covid and vaccine, for people between 20 and 30.
pimaCanyon
pimaCanyon
2 years ago
Reply to  Dutoit
another way is to compare all cause mortality for each month this year to the prior 5 year average.  Weekly all cause mortality in Scotland (very high vaxx rate) was running 20 to 30 percent above the 5 year average for many weeks this summer and fall.  What would cause that?  You’d think it would be LOWER because covid killed off a lot of the old people last year.  Germany (another high vaxx country) had all cause mortality for September running 10 percent higher than the previous 5 year average.
The problem with looking at stats for vaxx versus unvaxxed is the way they categorize.  If you get the vaxx and die within 2 weeks, they count it as unvaxxed!  Should be counted as death from the vaccination itself!
Yooper
Yooper
2 years ago
Reply to  pimaCanyon
I still come back to the CDC intentionally trying to skew the data towards vacc immunity when they decided to stop testing people for COVID if they were vacc’d. Talk about making sure the data (cough, “science”) proved the vacc worked.
astroboy
astroboy
2 years ago
Reply to  pimaCanyon
As regards higher mortality….. last year in the EU chemo and radiation treatments for cancer were down 35%, I expect that’s true for the US also.  To me, this means two things: 1) Vast numbers of people with cancer were cured by miracles and so had no need for treatment, or, 2) a lot of people, who would otherwise still be alive, are going to die from cancer. That might be a factor in higher death rates in 2021 and 2022-2023. I’m not saying covid isn’t a big cause for that, just that lack of treatment for other diseases probably is a not insignificant factor. 
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  astroboy
Or they didn’t actually NEED treatment at all.
astroboy
astroboy
2 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Well, that’s a very legitimate point and one I admit hadn’t occurred to me. Perhaps they were cured, or perhaps more treatment wouldn’t have done any good. In either case, not getting the treatment wouldn’t have made a difference in mortality over the new few years. Still….. 35% seems like a big drop. I guess we’ll see.
I also need to say, if I had cancer and I knew the hospital was full of covid patients, I might skip treatments. I’m not sure there are any numbers on how serious covid is for cancer patients but I’m sure it’s not good. Perhaps it comes down to skipping treatment and have a 50% chance of being alive two years from now, or getting covid and have a 90% chance of dying now… I don’t think anyone is in a position to say.
Dr. Odyssey
Dr. Odyssey
2 years ago
This has happened several times.
When I attempt to post information to further discussion on public health policy it disappears.
The moderator states it looks like spam, which it is not, and needs to be reviewed.
The information is never posted. 
Mish, can’t you do something about this to permit open rational discussion based on facts?
Dr. Odyssey
Dr. Odyssey
2 years ago
RFK Jr. discusses his best seller about Anthony Fauci with Jimmy Dore (the progressives progressive).
The video did not last 24 hours on youtube before being censored , but here it is on rumble.
This is not spam.
Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
On the political side……..
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
2 years ago
Greggg got me looking at my favorite C19-Status page. Interesting stuff right now.
The graphic on this page tracks weekly deaths in the US. Death-deaths. Not Covid deaths. Current data goes through early December.
Does Omicron kill? If so, the winter death wave should be starting to rise.
Right. UT, AZ, NM, and CO. Something is hitting those states. As opposed to neighboring states! (I’ve never seen such a clear border in numbers for a multi-state region.)
On the other hand, SC, NC, and maybe GA are going the other way. Has everybody already died there? Where are the deaths? Come to SC if you want to live, Sarah Conner.
Meanwhile, some of the Canadian-ish states (e.g. ME, NH, VT, OH, MI, MN, WI) are getting hit with a new wave of deaths like in the southern Rockies! What’s that all about? Those states have done rather well with Covid so far, both before and after vaccines. Not so much from Delta, on. That’s interesting. Is (eastern) Canada doing the same thing?
Early December in the other states is pre-Covid normal. So far.
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  Felix_Mish
They are being punished by god for letting gay people live.
TCW
TCW
2 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Or maybe it’s gay people dying who already have compromised immune systems.
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  TCW
Because of course the filthy animals do!
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  Felix_Mish
The CDC significantly dropped Omicron infections from 73% to 22% the other day.  Delta is still the main variant and with the CoVax shots ethereal protections wearing off, many of the newly dead are (were) vaccinated.  Oops.
Call_Me
Call_Me
2 years ago
The numbers cited from Canada are misleading, in that few or no vaccinated persons were available to be hospitalized in late 2020 and early 2021.  How do the rates compare over the past 1, 3 ,or 6 months?  Clearly the gap will be lower and given case explosion over the past month it might tilt the other direction-
Also, as has been noted in this comment section and elsewhere, the covid/hospital numbers do not reflect patients admitted for covid.  An inquiring mind would wonder what percentage of patients ended up testing positive because they were in hospital for an unrelated reason, but those numbers aren’t available so one has to use a proxy-
Call_Me_Al
TheWindowCleaner
TheWindowCleaner
2 years ago
It’s a public health issue, not a self rights one and certainly it shouldn’t be a political one. Full stop. 
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
2 years ago
Democrats made it a political issue for the 2020 election; which tells you exactly how they view public health. Full stop.
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
What do you have against our kooky brethren? They have a right to unfurl their kooky flag!
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Bullcrap.  I AM NOT YOUR KEEPER nor responsible for your health.  If I were, then I would likely put you on a diet and force you to do a lot of other things that you probably wouldn’t enjoy.
———-
Is Our Duty to Avoid Harm Unlimited?
Chris Bateman
– December 19, 2021
On Tuesday 7th December 2021, former CDC director Dr. Tom Frieden made the following remarks under the CNN brand:
“If everyone masks indoors where Covid is spreading, everyone is safer.
Just as your right to swing your fist doesn’t extend to someone else’s nose, your right to bare your nose and mouth doesn’t extend to killing someone by spreading a deadly virus. Mask mandates need to be implemented, enforced, and adherence monitored to build a collective sense of responsibility and achievement at high levels of mask wearing.”
These are extraordinary claims, although they will not seem so if you accept all the underlying premises.
Let us set aside for now the problem that the evidence in support of community masking remains weak, and also that scientific debate over the efficacy of masks has not been permitted in mainstream media coverage or in most medical journals. Let us also set aside the breach in medical ethics implied by this failure to support the scientific process in the context of community masking. These are important ethical issues that warrant discussion, but these are questions concerning scientific discourse, and Dr. Frieden’s claim is not a scientific claim at all; it is an ethical one. He claims that there is a direct parallel between our duty to avoid violence and our duty to take steps to prevent viral transmission in the case of a deadly virus; in both cases, he claims that our duty to prevent harm requires us to take or avoid certain actions. Is he correct?
Greggg
Greggg
2 years ago
I’ve been looking for the official statistics of total deaths from all causes in the US from 2017 to 2020 or 2021.   So far I found 2017 was 2,813,503.  It used to be easily found, but now the CDC seems concentrated on age adjusted death rates per 100,000 which is a totally different animal.   AADR:  2017  =  731.9/100,99;   2018  =  867.8/100,00;  2019  =  715.2/100,000;  2020  =  828.7/100,000; nothing for 2021.  
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
2 years ago
Reply to  Greggg
to get death numbers. There are links on that page to download various broken-down/categories’ numbers in .csv/.xml formats.
BTW, for back of envelope use, in the US you can assume 1/1000th of a randomly selected group of people will die in the next month. That’s a high estimate but weighting the selection toward old folks a bit makes that simple 1/1000 calculation good enough for quick use.
Baseline deaths per week in the US are in the low 50k range. In the winter it gets a hair over 60k. The reason for that yearly swing is not everybody staying indoors in the winter.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
2 years ago
My prediction is Covid will be gone by late spring. The remaining unvaccinated will either die peacefully or recover. After this, thankfully, covid will be more like the flu but with more repercussions for those that don’t get the annual covid shot that is bound to come. We get about 50k deaths from flu every year which are primarily those that don’t get the flu vacccine. Covid will be similar in coming years. 
Greggg
Greggg
2 years ago
I ain’t dead yet and I’m a pure blood.  My wife  (also a pure blood) and I ended up sick over the holidays for 3 days (flu/cold symptoms).  Found out later on that one of my grand sons tested + for covid the day before, Dec18, and we sat at the table with him all day, on Dec. 19, at a restaurant celebrating another family member’s  70th birthday party.   He was vaccinated.   I guess we recovered or something maybe or maybe not.  We were fine as of Sunday,  then again,  maybe I’m dreaming.
Mish
Mish
2 years ago
Reply to  Greggg
You are neither dreaming nor thinking.
One personal anecdote is not data. 
Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Reply to  Greggg
You mean you are a Pure Blood have no Muggle blood in you? Your wizard powers must be awesome.
Yooper
Yooper
2 years ago
Reply to  Greggg
Same here. First time around 18 months ago, I was laid out for at least a week (flu-like).
Last month, my whole family caught it from a medical office my wife works at, I slept for 2 days, and that was it. She coughed for about a week. My kids ranging from 18 to 8, tested positive with no symptoms at all. Isolated at home for a month. We weren’t vacc’d, but I made sure my older family was early on in May being at high risk.
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  Greggg
Now we got one that thinks he’s a wizard. Cast us a spell.
Ignorami delusioso!
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  Greggg
I’m pure blood also and have had no sicknesses in 22 months.  This despite sloppy mask wearing, a modified mask that is only 1 layer thick (to look compliant) and working out regularly at the gym where I probably come in contact with 100’s or people weekly.
How long can I keep the streak going? [lol]
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Peacefully? They’ll die screaming at the medical staff about how they don’t have Covid.
dtj
dtj
2 years ago
“How Can Anyone Deny This Data?” Because the people who produce the data skew it and distort it to fit their agenda.
Last summer during the Delta wave, the MSM was reporting virtually all hospital cases were unvaccinated but boots on the ground reports were saying otherwise. That percentage of vaccinated was 30-40% or more. They were lying.
CNN is currently running a scare story about how all the children with covid in a Chicago hospital are unvaccinated except for one. The propaganda piece (obviously written to encourage child covid vaccination) lets it slip that many of these covid cases were mild and were caught after the kids were admitted for other reasons. (Maybe they caught it at the hospital?)
I’d love to see the full complete data behind that story because I’m not buying any of it.
dtj
dtj
2 years ago
Reply to  dtj
I found it. From a scare story last summer published by CNBC: “Roughly 97% of new hospitalizations and 99.5% of deaths in the U.S. are
among unvaccinated individuals, U.S. health officials repeated this
week.”
From a recent story on http://vermontdailychronicle.com (a local newspaper). “59.4% of November Covid-19 fatalities were fully vaccinated. In October,
58% were fully vaccinated, according to statistics provided today by
State of Vermont statistician Erik Filkorn of Buildings and General
Services (BGS).”
The story provides data that the death rate among the unvaccinated in Vermont for Oct/Nov is about 50% higher than vaccinated on a per capita basis. Far from the outlandish 1800% greater that Mish cites above from Canada.
The case fatality rate of COVID is a fraction of a percent (0.3-0.5 percent). So I suppose the fatality rate of the unvaccinated would be on the high end of that range: 0.5%. I’ll take my chances and will avoid any potential adverse effects from the vaccine in return.
Bbbbbbb
Bbbbbbb
2 years ago
Reply to  dtj
You just don’t know how to read stats, probably because you’re not interested in what they’ll have to tell you. For instance, in November ~72% of people in Vermont were vaccinated, meaning 72% of the Vermont population suffered 59% of the fatalities, and 28% of the population suffered 41% of the fatalities. So, by per capita, the fatality rate for the unvaccinated was nearly twice of the vaccinated, and you can be pretty sure that the unvaccinated skewed younger, and therefore less prone to fatality by Covid. 
But you could also look at the fatality rate per 1 million of all states in the US and find that Vermont has the lowest rate at 745 per 1,000,000. Compare that to Wyoming at 43.3% fully vaccinated and fatality rate of 2,637 per 1,000,000. Tennessee at 51.3% vaccinated and fatality rate of 3,037—4 times the rate of Vermont. You can also bet that the low relatively low fatalities in Vermont for October/November added to a small sample distortion that some jumped on without pause to look at the whole picture.
As for case fatality rate, there have been 54,148,544 cases in the US and 842,161 deaths. That’s a CFR of 1.56%, not “0.3-0.5”. Maybe you were confused and were thinking percentage of the population dead from Covid, because, yes, 0.25 of 1 percent of the US has officially died of Covid. And that doesn’t seem so significant, except when you compare it to other death events in US history, and the only events with a larger percent toll on the US population have been the Civil War at 1.973%, the Spanish Flu at .654%, and WW2 at .301%. Covid now sits at .248% over 2 years. By per capita deaths per year Covid deaths are comparable (probably greater) than WW2, and exceeded only by the Civil War and the Spanish Flu.
The ‘statistics are skewed” but they turn out to be the stats you are using.
Bbbbbbb
Bbbbbbb
2 years ago
Reply to  Bbbbbbb
BTW, I am opposed to vaccine mandates and “passports”, and I’m a socialist. 
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  Bbbbbbb
And I’m the emperor of Sweden.
Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Reply to  Bbbbbbb

Comparing a pandemic death rate to the death rate of a war does not make much sense because war is manmade and pandemics are not. First of all the death rate of the Civil War was 2.5% and heavily skewed toward young men. Secondly WW II was a worldwide affair and killed approximately 70 million people. The US death rate was very low because we fought it on someone else’s real estate. Many countries in Europe lost over 10% of their populations in that war.  
The comparison with the Spanish Flu is correct however that flu killed the young and those in their prime and very few old people. Covid is exactly the opposite. It kills above all the old and spares the young. If you look at years of life lost then covid comes out much less harmful than the Spanish Flu. We should compare covid with other infectious diseases. Malaria kills at least a million per year. HIV has killed 33 million worldwide and 675,000 in the US. It still kills over 30,000 in the US today. We have been in this pandemic for almost two years now so we do have good data. In the beginning we had none and had only models to go by. No matter how you look at the statistics, covid is not one of the big killers as was feared. If you are old or have comorbidities it is a no-brainer. If you are younger and in health the risk/reward is more nuanced. 
Bbbbbbb
Bbbbbbb
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78

Of course a pandemic is different from a war, but as I POINTED OUT when we look at the impact of a death event we can get a better idea of its overall effects on a society, and Covid is comparable to some of the most significant events in US history. And its impact is likely undercounted in the official number of ~800,000 as excess deaths are over 1,000,000 during Covid. And that is the largest death event in US history, and the fourth largest per capita. It’s the the Spanish Flu, but it’s the closest thing to it in the century since then.

Yes, it is preferable to compare Covid to the impacts of other contagious diseases, but your own examples  point out that Covid has been a significant event, with 5.4 million dead officially in just under 2 years, and estimates that the real total is closer to 15 million. HIV has killed 33 million in 4 decades. Malaria deaths in recent decades bare falling and number about a half million at this point. 
I’m 64, I guess I’m expendable. And so are the 30% of the US population with comorbidities. I’d actually like our society to fight for all of us, rather than consign so many to “expendable” categories that are just reaping the deserts of their “choices”.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  Bbbbbbb
The 800k death total is over almost 2 years.  The number for 2020 was only 375k Covid deaths per the CDC.  That’s about 1/8 or 1% of the USA population.  Nothing more than a rounding error!
The death numbers are likely overcounted.  Two larger counties in CA where I live reviewed and reduced their Covid death totals by 22% & 25% last June.  I am confident that wne reviews are done of death certificates, that many Covid deaths will be reclassified.
Yes, you are expendable and outside of your family and close friends, no one will remember you 6 months after you are gone, unless you are a famous person who has done something significant in your life, which for most of us, is unlikely.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
The Spanish Flu killed so many young people due to WW1.  The crowded trench warfare and the field hospitals were prime transmission grounds for the virus.
honestcreditguy
honestcreditguy
2 years ago
Reply to  Bbbbbbb
stats are worthless, don’t you have nursing friends? I do….
the vaccinated are in the hospital and dying, usually because of obesity related co morbidities, hispanics and blacks are biggest component of death rate based on low vitamin c and d counts along with being obese
Bbbbbbb
Bbbbbbb
2 years ago
And I too have friends in nursing. Shall we have a duel of anecdotal evidence that creates a lot of heat and little light? Stats are often imperfect but the main problem is that they get misused, abused.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
I continue to be amazed at the number of grossly overweight people I see on TV news shows including reporters, MD’s, almost all public officials including cops and general people one can see in the background of news reports.  They must think their CoVax shots are going to save them.
get
get
2 years ago
Reply to  Bbbbbbb
Did you factor in average age of population when calculating your stats? Anyone can skew this anyways they want because there are a lot of variables which are difficult to quantify.
The Spanish Flu had IFR of around 2.5% not 0.65% which puts it in another universe relative to covid which has an IFR of 0.2-0.4% depending on who you talk to.
The bizarre thing about this insane asylum show called covid is that if IFR were 2.5% like Spanish Flu, you wouldn’t have to convince anyone to get the vaccine or social distance because we’d all know someone who has died and probably more than 1. This proves that people are perfectly capable of accessing risk on their own and coming to their own conclusions. The risk-reward equation of the vaccines (which do have serious shortcomings) would be easy to weigh in such a scenario. Much less so with an IFR of 0.2-0.4% when the vaccines clearly have issues and we have no idea how they will affect people over the long term and especially the young.

We don’t need the self-righteous, high school hall monitors wagging their finger in people’s faces constantly. I’m not referring to you but Mish comes across like one as do so many others and they only see the stats which validate their fears. 

I still don’t know anyone directly who has died from this. I know of people once removed who have died but none directly and I have a big, aging family!
Zardoz
Zardoz
2 years ago
Reply to  get
80% of the population reads at below a 6th grade level. Expecting them to comprehend the basics of epidemiology and statistics is  like expecting your cat to drive you to work.
Bbbbbbb
Bbbbbbb
2 years ago
Reply to  get
If you had read my comment closely you would have noted that the 0.65% was not CFR but the percentage of the overall population, which goes toward pointing out the enormous impact of Covid relative to other large death events in US history.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  get
I also know, out of hundreds of family, friends and acquaintances across the country, of only 2 people who contacted Covid in the last 22 months and both survived.
astroboy
astroboy
2 years ago
Reply to  Bbbbbbb
Look up ‘disease burden covid’ on the CDC website. Last I checked a couple weeks ago the CDC calculated 140 million Americans had had covid, of course, not all were diagnosed, hence the difference from the 54 million you cite. That knocks the CFR down to about .5%.
Bbbbbbb
Bbbbbbb
2 years ago
Reply to  astroboy
No, it won’t, because the CFR is a measure of verified cases and only verified cases. You’re talking about the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) which is deaths divided by estimated infections, which is probably about 0.5–0.8% and would include estimated asymptomatic infections as you noted correctly. The IFR of the Spanish Flu would likely also be lower than its CFR, but I think that a measure that helps us triangulate the lethality of Covid to Spanish Flu is the mortality as a percentage of total population, and the percentage for Spanish Flu was .654% and currently for Covid is .247%. I think that the toll from Covid will be about a third to half that of Spanish Flu in the US.
Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Reply to  dtj
Do you live in Vermont? One of my daughters does and she loves it.
Mish
Mish
2 years ago
Reply to  dtj
Tell me how the data is skewed. 
GaryL
GaryL
2 years ago
Omicron makes this a moot point. I won’t argue with these stats, other than with PCR results, and likely comandeering and bypassing of the natural immune system, but this info is now pretty much passe,  along with the need for the jab. So let’s fight the last war, shall we?
Mish
Mish
2 years ago
Reply to  GaryL
I tend to agree.  Indeed I stated ….
Omicron is so infectious, that many if not most of the unvaccinated are likely to get it. Then if antibodies do what they normally do, this may be the last big wave of hospitalizations and deaths.
But that is my theory.
alin_s
alin_s
2 years ago
How can anyone deny the 99.9% survival rate?  And 95% of deaths are over 50 years old, something like 180 million people under 50 yrs old have practically zero chance of dying from the cov. Data analysis is how I know this, based on readily available data from the CDC. The fact that we’re still pretending this is a pandemic is the truly irrational part of all this. 800 thousand deaths over two years in a country of 330 million (0.2%), with the majority in nursing homes and over 80% are 65+ yrs old, and everyone is freaking out as if it’s the plague. 
Mish
Mish
2 years ago
Reply to  alin_s
The cure for stupidity and stubbornness is frequently hospitalization and sometimes death, even if the vast majority survive. 
alin_s
alin_s
2 years ago
Reply to  Mish
What is the rate of hospitalization from being sick from covid, not because they went in and tested positive?  Most vaccinated who get sick also end up dying from a short and brief illness, or unexplained illness, or heart attack.  So many athletes have died this year and the common link across all of them is vaccination. they literally collapse on the field and everyone pretends like this is normal…

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