Spotlight Texas
A Record 4.8 Million Texans Voted Early in this years midterm elections.
It’s hard to say who that favors, but turnout was heaviest in Collin County where nearly 50% of registered voters have already cast their ballots.
Collin county is heavily Republican.
Politico asks Did Beto Blow It?
> Over the past six months, I spoke with a host of Texas Republicans about the U.S. Senate race. Many of them dislike Cruz. Some of them privately hope he loses. And all of them are baffled by the disconnect between the superior branding of O’Rourke’s candidacy and what they see as the tactical malpractice of his campaign.
> In their view, Cruz is uniquely vulnerable, having alienated Texans of all ideological stripes with his first-term antics—and especially those affluent, college-educated suburbanites repelled by Trump.
> “Despite all of Cruz’s problems—and there are plenty—here’s a guy who’s running around talking about Medicare for all, and impeaching Trump, and abolishing ICE. And it’s killing him,” Karl Rove, the former senior adviser to George W. Bush, told me in Austin this summer. “Even for people who dislike Cruz, impeaching Trump strikes many of them as terrible for the country. I’ve got friends and family members who may not vote for Cruz. They don’t like Cruz. But Beto isn’t contesting them. I mean, it’s just weird.”
> Instead of pivoting to the center, as spring gave way to summer, the Democratic nominee hardened his positions. Where he had once hedged on his endorsement of “Medicare for all,” O’Rourke began forcefully championing a single-payer system. Where he once avoided impeachment talk, O’Rourke reiterated, on the day he and Hurd received an award for civility in politics, that Trump should be removed from office. Where he once carefully straddled the border-security debate, O’Rourke said he was open to abolishing ICE if its duties could be assumed elsewhere.
> James Aldrete, a Texas Democratic strategist who ran the Spanish-language media strategy for both Obama campaigns and for Hillary Clinton in 2016, conceded “He never made a political adjustment to reach out to the middle.”
Beto Platform
- Medicare for all.
- Medicaid expansion.
- Invest in job training and apprenticeship programs.
- Impeach Trump —a position rejected by Nancy Pelosi, and nearly every other prominent Democrat in America, as futile and counterproductive.
- Open to abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
It’s easy to not like Cruz, but it’s a lot easier to like Cruz when the opponent is extreme-left.
Cruz vs O’Rourke
I suspect this one will be close but Cruz will win.
O’Rourke may be the only person Cruz can beat just as Hillary was the only person Trump could beat.
Like Hillary, O’Rourke ran a poor campaign. Despite raising huge amounts of money, Cruz outspent O’Rourke on ads in the past few weeks.
Yet, I would not be hugely surprised if O’Rourke won. It’s not impossible.
Abandoning the Middle
Neither Cruz nor O’Rourke reached out to the middle.
Apparently no one wants it.
Fiscal responsibility? No one wants that either. Deficits are out of sight and expanding rapidly.
For eight years Republicans were against Obama’s budgets. Trump’s projected budgets are worse.
A genuine middle-class tax cut would have gone over big. Instead, the middle class got peanuts.
Military waste is enormous. Entitlements are out of control. Interest on the national debt is soaring.
So how does Medicare for all, more Medicaid, more military spending and absurd makeshift job training programs, fit in?
Easy to Be Angry
It’s easy to be angry.
Expect things to get worse when the next recession hits and public union pension plans go bust.
You ain’t seen nothing yet.
Midterm Senate Races
Fearless Political Predictions
- Democrats easily win the House.
- Close but no cigar for Democrats winning the Senate. I give the Democrats 6 or 7 of those tossups.
I suspect the Democrats lose Missouri and win all the rest. Even if they win all 7 they have to flip another seat. The best chance is Texas.
So look for a 50-50 Senate tie or the status quo at 51-49.
2019 US Legislation
If the Democrats win the House, very little legislation will pass in the next two years, except of course more wasteful spending by both sides when the next recession hits.
Spotlight Europe
Meanwhile, the splintering is even more pronounced in Europe.
- The end of Merkel is at hand: Merkel’s Legacy: Refugee crisis, the Splintering of Germany, Brexit
- Italy is openly feuding with the EU over its budget: In Unprecedented Move, EU Rebukes Italy’s Budget: Italy Politely Says Screw You
- Eurozone Growth: Eurozone Growth Slows to 4-Year Low, Italy Stagnates, Global Recession Risk Up
- Anti-EU Marine Le Pen is ahead of French president Macron in European Parliament polls.
- There is still no agreed upon Brexit solution, but I have one: No Brexit Deal, No Problem.
- Derivatives mess at French Banks: Casino Report on 3 French Banks: BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Societe Generale
This is not a good economic or political setup to say the least, both globally and in the US.
Trumps tariffs make matters much worse.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I do have to say that it’s interesting how effectively that established, rich and partisan organizations we refer to “The Media” can use a logical fallacy like “poisoning the well” on their “customers” so effectively and get away with it. Must be all that Forced Public Schooling.
Immigrants. All of the people who moved here from Mexico and settled are immigrants, right? They’ve ALL gone through the complete language, civics, health checks, loyalty oaths … right?? NO?!? Then perhaps Mish should buck the “language consensus” media impose on us, and call things by their true names, and always refer to them as INVADERS. As the Soviets would say, “immigration” is an Agitprop word, an euphemism designed to camouflage evil.
Speaking of the Soviets, and given the money flows of this sElection, perhaps the political polarization we see is the fact that the US Democratic Party is a subdivision of the International Communist movement, building their “World Communist Corporate Empire”, where the former united states becomes merely an administrative and tax district for faraway, untouchable Rulers. A fascist merger of big.gang.biz and big.gang.guv, forever.
The Globull “One World” movement will end all that pesky “polarization”. The Dems and the RINO’s are merely temporary useful idiots. They will rest in eternal peace – in mass unmarked graves – when they become useless. We all know how those schemes end.
The bluewave happened in the House.
It was not as big as Democrats had hoped but it still happened.
Incumbent House Republicans that lost were either actively opposing Trump and trying to reverse Trump policies (example: Kevin Yoder in Kansas who wanted to reverse Sessions asylum definition tightening and return it to the Obama started ridiculousness of considering spousal abuse in Guatemala or gang threats in Honduras reasons for asylum)
OR
running away from Trump and not talking about immigration at all (many Republicans)
OR
Republicans who hid themselves from voters and did not hold any townhalls and made strange statements (example: Dave Brat who was a former tea party darling and whose win in Republican primary against Eric Cantor in 2014 led to amnesty-loving Republicans like Rubio and others giving up on the Republican-Democrat mass-amnesty push of 2014)
Also re-districting was part of many Republicans losses.
Democrats have also been successful in getting some redistricting through the courts where Republican strongholds have been moved to different voting-districts and replaced with Democrat leaning areas and this was part of the losses.
Republicans got more seats in the Senate but not as much as I predicted and some losses were tight 50ish-49ish battles where Republican turn out strategy failed compared to energized Democrats.
It seems Republicans won many Governorships that they were predicted to lose by the media and this is important for the 2020 redistricting but Republicans lost some Governorships and this will hurt them 2020-2030 in those states they lost after Democrats do the 2020 redistricting in those states.
Democrat Maxine Waters will be responsible for Wall Street regulation in the House….
Texas is becoming what happens when liberals flee their failed states (California) and move to red states for cheaper housing, and then start to pollute local politics with their failed ideology. Add to this liberal exodus from the coasts large numbers of immigrants who vote 75% Dem. 30 yrs ago no way a guy like O’Rourke would have gained any traction in TX.
Texas has been an amazingly strong job producer and population magnet for the last 30+ yrs. Despite being flat, hot, and not having all the physical gifts places like Calif do (great weather, mountains, beaches, etc…). That is largely because it has been a pro business and low regulation red state. Now Beto O’Rouke wants to make it a lot more like California politically. RIP Texas in a few decades.
Liberals have polluted the politics of other states like Colorado, Nevada, Washington. And are even starting to infect Idaho and Utah. And on the east coast liberals fleeing NY, NJ, CT, MA —–> NC, SC, FL, GA…..and turning those states more purple. They flee their old states because of high taxes and looking for greener pastures….and then in turn ruin where they go.
“..Texas is becoming what happens when liberals flee their failed states (California) and move to red states for cheaper housing,..”
And dumb Texans can’t wait to fall all over themselves trying to make sure their housing gets more expensive too…. Then wonder why their wannabe California turns out just as dystopian as the place it is modeled on… Minus the stunning weather.
Without real hardship, people just get “worse.” Not to worry, it seems crushing hardship and poverty unknown for a century will come to most Americans.
If I may, I’d like to point out much of Indiana considers it to be Republican. The places where Democrat politicians do well is centered at large cities, where there is dense voter population. But ask anyone in rural Indiana, and you’ll get a different view for politics and far more Republican support. Just my two cents from Southern Indiana. Thanks.
Hillary Clinton was the most flawed candidate ever for US president.
Predictions:
Republicans end up with 58-42 lead in the Senate from the current 51-49.
Republicans lose some seats in the House but since they have a lead of 23 seats currently they keep the House with a lead of 3-5 seats so Democrats gain 18-20 seats but the blue wave does not happen in the way they hoped because they went extreme-left with their Kavanaugh personal destruction, with harassing Republicans in restaurants with Maxine Waters even telling her supporters to harass Republicans everywhere and ex-AG holder telling Democrats to kick Republicans and Hillary Clinton’s mad speech in Europe and most of all Obama took away the Democrats claims the Economy is not so great by trying to take credit for the great economy.
Biggest problem for Democrats however is that they would welcome the Caravan to USA, that they would abolish ICE, they would let criminal illegal immigrants back to US streets instead of deporting them and make every state and city sanctuary states and cities if they could, they would give mass amnesty if they could and they are Rapidly anti-Wall and economically and mathematically ILLITERATE by complaining about the cost of WALL that would be about 25 billion ONCE when USA pays over 700 billion a YEAR on just interest on the massive national debt.
If the Democrats win it will be because most media outlets have turned into anti-Trump hate-propaganda machines comparable to the evil stuff Goebbels pulled.
I would not be surprised if CNN and MSNBC start running claims that Trump drinks babies blood in the middle of the night, that is how unhinged and crazy the US mainstream media has become.
One crazy Democrat even claimed that Trump son-in-law was responsible for the Saudis murdering and torturing the Saudi journalist in the Saudi Embassy in Turkey…
I will go out on a limb and say this is the beginning of the end for Trump. I would be surprised if he made it past 2019 in office. We will get to 2020 with the largest leadership void in perhaps all of American history. No idea how this ends but with two kids and a family I am making backup plans to leave the United States if social disorder kicks in in 2019.
And to where, Casual, will you go? Do you think the coming collision between Leftist Lunatic Centralism and proponents of “anything but” is unique to the USA? The entire globe is a smoking volcano of debt and of impossible-to-keep promises.
As to Trump, do you realize that the Senate is where impeachment trials occur? I think Trump has been given a gift. He now has a scapegoat on whom to hang any decline in the markets and economy. Pelosi’s crowd will double-down in their cra-cray.
Our deepest desire as a nation is to fight each other. Whenever economic decline finally sets in, we’ll have the excuses we need to take off the gloves and get this party started. The only thing keeping the lid on now are the Boomers, who have too much to lose if the country goes up in flames. I’m no fan of them as a generation, but they’re the only ones even trying to hold things together, selfish though their reasons may be.
Of course, conflict plays into the hands of elites and proves that divide-and-conquer is alive and well in the 21st century. Neither side will get what they want out of the bloodshed and we’ll lose bigly as a nation. It’ll be every bit as productive as the last 20 years in Afghanistan or Iraq. The military will be playing their own game and have loads of experience pitting groups against each other, helping out as needed to ensure a balance of power so the conflict drags on for maximum duration. After heavy early fighting, the rest will be a long term low to medium intensity conflict. This blueprint has already been carried out in several countries and will continue to spread.
As for tomorrow, who really cares? To paraphrase Cheney, Trump proved elections don’t matter. We’re in the final throes of American democracy. Two years of Trump and there’s no locking her up, no wall, no ending of wars, no addressing debt/deficits, and certainly no MAGA. Instead Trump hitched his wagon to the fake stock markets and the utterances of Fed Chairs, just like his predecessors. Both the red and blue teams stand firmly against the American people, at least the bottom 95%+.
But it’s not all bad! At least we can despise each other based on politics, race, age, wealth, religion, gender, linguistics, and other hot button issues, so we’ve got that going for us, which is nice. We’ll also probably stay upright longer than most of the Eurozone and China, but not too much longer.
“We’re in the final throes of American democracy.”
democracy is not freedom.
America supposed to be a Constitutional Republic.
The Articles of Confederation, formally the Articles of Confederation and Perpetual Union, was an agreement among the 13 original states of the United States of America that served as its first constitution.[1] It was approved, after much debate (between July 1776 and November 1777), by the Second Continental Congress on November 15, 1777, and sent to the states for ratification. The Articles of Confederation came into force on March 1, 1781, after being ratified by all 13 states.
The Constitution of 1787 was a literal coup d’eta against the form of government for which the American colonists fought. It was the first of many betrayals of the founding principles, a process that turned metastatic when Leftist pod-people started staffing the SCOTUS and “discovering” all sorts of rights in the interstices between the letters and words of the Bill of Rights. “Congress Shall Make No Law…” didn’t come with a long list of “except in the cases of….”
We get the government to which our neighbors consent. Given that Sallust was correct 2000 years ago in stating, “Most men do not desire liberty, most only wish for a just master,” we are doomed to always get one form of slavery or another.
I can’t wait to see the rioting and violence that will accompany the collapse of this “put it all on the National MasterCard” paradigm.
Nice to find someone quote Sallust. He was my project for the final high school exam in Latin. 🙂
Democracy under Diversity is nothing but a headcount.
Democracy was NEVER about liberty (most of the founding generation viewed democracy as exactly what it’s become, mob rule.) It was Fabian Socialists who, over the last century, cultivated the Big Lie that democracy and freedom are nearly synonymous.
I was born into a 90% white nation where things were rather peaceful. My sons were born into an 80% white nation where much of the Norman Rockwell peace and prosperity was already just a memory for me. My grandkids are being born into a 66% white country where I can’t tell from the clientele if the store I’m visiting is in my home town or Cancun, Mexico, and the country is drowning in debt used to maintain the illusion that all is well. Will my great-grandchildren be born into a majority black/brown country where they are seen as cows to be milked PERPETUALLY for the benefit of the new tenants?
It seems like that’s the goal. Forgive me if I’m with those who would prefer a totalitarian dictatorship to that dystopian future. Trump is but a transition figure. If the Dems keep importing a mercenary ARMY to vote them into perpetual political power, the path ahead is not figurative war.
Bernie would have won
I think this is pretty clear
big government big taxes, it become imperative for your side to win there is no middle ground.
“Fiscal responsibility? No one wants that either. Deficits are out of sight and expanding rapidly.”
you have 2 type of socialist fighting for power — they do not call themselves socialist but they are –same as in Germany between 1919-1933
Trump is running bigger deficits than Obama but if Hillary Clinton would have won it would have been even worse.
The Trump policies on trade and immigration if he keeps his election promises give USA a chance to grow their way out of the problems IF Trump solves the high cost of Healthcare that causes the high cost of Health insurance and the high cost of Medicare and Medicaid.
Social Security is fine if there are not millions of illegals coming to USA and millions of low wage immigrants coming to USA to collect it.
Also education needs to made market based by removing the federal guarantees on student loans and making student loans dischargeable in a bankruptcy. Doing this will lead only those degrees where one can get a well paying job getting loans and being at the current inflated cost and all the other degrees crashing in cost because Colleges and Universities can not charge outrageous prices for essentially worthless degrees when there is not huge student loans enabling them to charge high prices for degrees.
It is better to pull lattes at Starbucks without 100k-200k in student debt…
Social security is quite obviously not anything resembling “fine.” As there are virtually no social security money set aside at all….. It’s just a bunch of empty promises, made by a bunch of conmen, who never even bothered pretending that the money they collected would be used to pay retirement benefits to those they collected it from.
The conmen took the money, spent it on hookers, blow, self promotion and preening around playing fashionably socialist, and that is it. That is the beginning, end and all in between of it. Even if not one single foreigner had entered America since WW2, a scheme like that could still never be “fine.” A bunch of lying scum pocketed the retirement savings of two generations of Americans. So that now they don’t have any. In plain view. Fine my rear.
Let’s ask Nate Silver. Lol, Meanwhile Stixhexenhammer666 (youtube) was almost perfect in his predictions for 2016.
Most voters don’t care about tariffs. Period. It is a no issue. Watch the Republicans win more Senate seats and also more seats in the House than anyone expects. Just watch. Trump has his pulse on the American voter.
“…Hillary was the only person Trump could beat”
Trump could have beaten Sanders, Biden, Martin O’Malley, and any Democrat Senator.
Fearless Political Predictions
As for results for the midterms, who knows? I was thinking that can’t get good polling anymore since most people won’t always answer their cell phones from unknown numbers, I certainly don’t.
At the same time, the conservatives that I know (myself included) keep their leanings secret, as the hassle of dealing with discussions is just too much. But I’ve been a little surprised to find more Trump supporters that I didn’t think were, i.e. Hispanics.
NO illegal immigration leads to Hispanic Americans having higher wages, better employment, better schools for their children and not so crowded hospitals.
Same with African Americans.
Democrats have betrayed all of their African American voters by cheering on illegal immigration.
I agree you can’t bring Trump up with a liberal crowd. No matter how articulate you are you will get shouted down and shunned. You can’t just say you don’t like him…..you must hate him. My family is very liberal but I lean right (took me a long time to shake off the indoctrination). And at family gatherings I have trained myself to just keep quiet about ALL politics. Silence is my only answer. I learned long ago to choose my battles, and that’s not one I can win.
You should read what my friends in South America say about the Venezuelan refugees coming into the country. Change a few words and you’d say they were Trump supporters. And these friends live in small towns.