The 1987 stat is somewhat misleading because it was preceded by unprecedented surges.
Total Vehicle Sales vs Lightweight Vehicle Sales
Vehicle Sales Month Over Month
On a month-over-month basis, sales fell 32.15%. On a percentage basis, this is more than 987 but less than the 35.37% decline in September 2009.
There is no reason to expect a huge rebound in sales.
Incomes and savings have been clobbered by layoffs that have just started.
As noted earlier day, Unemployment Rate Jumps to 4.4% But Worst is Yet to Come
I expect the unemployment rate to hit at least 12% in April and more likely something close to 20%.
A deep recession is coming up.
For discussion, please see Covid-19 Recession Will Be Deeper Than the Great Financial Crisis
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Not being reported is the booming clickbait trade being done by scaremongering and rumour based sites quoting CNN et al. They are doing great.
Between oversupply and collapsing consumer demand, could probably shut down the brand-new auto industry for years. I suspect they’ll try to ramp up medical manufacturing in the worst hit areas.
I see people taking out 84 month loans now on cars. Insanity
Not nearly as systemically insane as 360 month ones on roach shacks.
When the interest rate is 0% who cares how long the loan is?
Agreed, I can pay off my car but it’s 0%. What concerns me is people making $50,000 a year driving $50,000 trucks. To each his own but car prices have way outstripped wage income.
That’s different story – the car should cost max 1/3 of your annual income. So for $50k income the car should cost $17k max.
Pavlovian dog here. I’ve been trained to expect a cosmic-scale “save the auto industry” Cash for clunkers ll. I have a 14 year old Hemi with a quarter million miles on it quivering in the garage in fear. The Hemi has a good read on me.
I’ve lived by the same Cadillac dealer and the same shopping mall for all of my life. Last December, I went to the mall, which has an impressive 6-story parking structure. I had nothing better to do, so I decided to go to the “roof” of the parking structure and check out the view – as I have done plenty of times over the years. Lo and behold…about a couple hundred unsold Cadillacs were hiding up there, most of them the monster-truck SUV kind. At that point I knew the bubble economy had rolled over.
My seventeen year old car picked a good year to fail inspection. Used cars will be cheap. What about new cars, though? Can dealers drop prices?
This summer may be a good time to buy a car! You can keep to hybrid and electric cars. I’ll take a good old internal combustion variety.
Once sales pick up (they eventually will, at lest a little) again, my bets will be on plug in hybrids with an inverter output: Less need to expose yourself to contagion at gas stations as long as the grid is still operational, in addition to a nice battery and genset providing backup for power outgages prolonged by sick or quarantined electricians and/or linemen.
On Deck
Home sales
April will have even fewer auto sales, we are going to skip a recession (actually we are in one now) and head straight to depression. BTW, I was in the market for a used late model SUV… held off on that purchase, thankfully.
Is this NEW vehicle sales? Unless you’re in the home delivery biz, who needs a new car when 31 states have stay-at-home orders.
I’m “lucky” enough to be an essential worker. As such my work truck was due for an oil change. I expected to be the only one in the quickie lube, but there were 4 other people waiting.
Despite what we’re told people aren’t sheltering in place, at least in rural Colorado. But then again, my county is way under the average for the state and as of yesterday there are 0 cases in the local hospitals.
Lots of traffic in Portland still. Feels like 1995 traffic levels, the one nice thing about stay-at-home orders.
Cash for clunkers coming up?
Actually, all the auto sales plunges (except this one) were preceded by some sort of a spike. Sales were topping out anyway so it was a matter of time before manufacturers and dealers got into trouble.