Video: Trump Tells Nigel Farage “Corbyn Would Be So Bad”

Hey, if he’s as good and deeply-engrained a liar as you intimate, he might surprise yet. But to do that, a large number of ‘moderates’ have to be convinced that the Deal stinks and touting it will result in another hung parliament.

In other words, it will have less to do with lying or telling truth, and more to do with what will get over the finish line in good enough shape to fight the good fight for several races more.

We’ll see what happens, but I think he laid down a clear, and important, marker: if you don’t take your lousy deal off the table, which ISN’T Brexit AT ALL, we’ll run against you as much as we can. If you do, we’ll go for the traditionally Labour seats you have almost no chance of winning but we do, which means we’ll go Win-Win in a Leave Alliance.

Nigel further pointed out that he doesn’t think the people will back Boris’s deal once they have had time to discuss it further – which wasn’t the case when he tried to push it through in 3 days early last week. And if Nigel is right (and he will be helping to ensure he is with speeches all over the country by himself and fellow Brexiteers, some of whom are formidable speakers too), then Boris and the Tories may well have no choice but to go for the WTA Treaty option (by July 2020), a clear plan which can be simply explained and which will unite the Leavers and indeed guarantee their victory.

It was a very reasonable proposal from a very experienced, if not mainstream, politician. And it has instantly changed the entire election.

As I read yours…

Before we get to election day itself there are a few phases. The first is now as the Parties figure out which candidates to approve, what slogans work best & worst etc. Sort of market research and product presentation phase if you will.

Then they will be campaigning in earnest, both in the national airwaves with the Head Honchos etc., but also fighting for yards play by play, door to door in the local districts. Things will vary from clear as day to clear as mud but gradually some main aspects will emerge through the fog of war.

At that point, perhaps, it will make sense for TBP and Tories to get tactical. Until then, it’s best if everyone gives it their best shot. It’s more fun for one thing, more positive, more forward-moving, but then also it’s more clarifying.

Although I don’t really disagree with your prognosis, things rarely turn out the way they seem like they could or should so it’s fun trying to anticipate (which is mainly what Mish is doing on this blog). Let’s take one possible outcome: TBP does much better than anticipated and gets closer to 20% than current less than 10%. And is leading quite a few moderate Tories in various seats, not to mention outright leading in districts where the Tories are a distant third or lower. This will show empiracally, unequivocably, that the No Deal contingent has muscle.

And maybe if the moderates are faring poorly, i.e. those only touting the virtues of Boris’ great New Deal, well maybe all this will make them reconsider their position.

On the other hand, if the Faragistas don’t do well and are around 5-7%, most likely they will be taking more Labour than Tory votes in which case No Pact suits the Tories just fine. And this is quite likely too because, like it or not, TBP is a one-issue Party and elections transcend any one (or really any) issues; they become some sort of bizarre, multi-faceted but unique creature each time.

In either case, it’s a mistake to come to an arrangement right now. Nigel has posited November 15th, but I suspect it’s going to be more like Dec 1st before they can talk Christmas Turkey together – if at all.

Boris is going for a Big Win. He is charting a course to emerge as a Great PM, up there with Thatcher and Churchill maybe. He is rising above the current malaise and stagnation and pointing towards a bright future ‘Putting the Great back in Britain!’ (not a bad slogan, eh?), and on the international, cosmopolitan future-engendering World Stage. The more he succeeds in doing this, the more old school, has-been and petit bourgeois Little Englander Corbyn and his motley crew of dingy Council Flat heroes will diminish.

The thing is, that for all her many problems and conflicts, Britain is without question one of the most dynamic, intelligent, quirky, variegated and creative countries and people on the planet. They are still #5 economy (though I find that hard to believe). It’s long overdue her people enjoy more pride and optimism in who they are and how they can live. Boris is the sort of leader who can tap into this entirely natural aspiration and get them to believe that it’s deliverable if they only buy into it.

Of course, it can end up being yet another Establishment-neutered, hog-tied mess. But hope springs eternal….