Somehow the Fed went from auto-pilot hikes and balanced sheet reduction, to wait-and-see, then to numerous Fed governors discussing the need not for one cut but more.

Just Do It

Former Fed chairs are also in on the "Just Do It" mantra.

Janet Yellen

Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen chimed in.

Greenspan Wants Insurance


Data Dependent?

What the hell happened?

The only data that supports a rate cut is the yield curve itself.


The notion that a rate cut offers insurance against anything is total silliness.

The bubbles have been blown. One cannot insure against what has already happened.

Nor will an extra 25 basis points stop a recession. It's already baked in the cake.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

What Happens to Companies Eliminating Dividends?

Here's a look at nine companies that eliminated dividends this year.

Boeing 737 Max Suspension: What Really Happened?

This week, Boeing announced it would suspend production of the 737 Max in January. The timing and details are unusual.

Stock Market Dependent Fed: Four Fed Presidents Speak in Favor of Pausing Hikes

Four Fed presidents, three of them voting members issued dovish statements today.

Fed-Proof Bond Bet?

The yield curve is the flattest since 2007. Nonetheless, traders think it will get flatter. The bond bet du jour is the next Fed chair will keep hiking but not as much as the Fed thinks.

The Fed Will Cut Rates on March 18

It's now baked in the cake. The Fed will cut rates on March 18 and most likely at least twice more.

Fed Baby Steps Coming: What's Powell Up To?

The odds of a double rate cut in September plunged from 40% recently to 31% last week then to 0% today.

What Happens if CDU/CSU Split?

A reader from Germany chimes in on events if CDU/CSU Split.

Zombie Corporations: 10% of Companies Depend on Cheap Fed Money

Ten percent of corporations survive only because central banks have kept real interest rates negative.

GDPNow 4th Quarter Estimate Sinks to 2.8% from 3.3%: What Happened?

On Dec 19 the GDPNow model estimated fourth-quarter GDP at 3.3%. The forecast is now 2.8%. Let's review the reasons.