June 17 of last year I went to Home Depot and priced three 14 foot 4X10 cypress beams to replace rotten ones under my lanai that hold up the living room roof rafter beams. Price = $406.31
Today I went to Home Depot to price the same thing since I finally found an engineer to come look at the problem. Three cypress beams 14 feet long 4X10 = $549.44 in spite of the fact that lumber production is at the highest point since the start of the GFC.
A lawn mower I looked at there late last year around Thanksgiving at $1,658 I finally had to break down and buy but now it was over $1,950. My homeowner's insurance jumped 34% in April, no reason given, no storms, no claims, same owner same house. My auto insurance also went up 14% no claims, tickets, accidents, I am now paying 12 times as much per dollar value of car as when it was new 8 years ago. Then it was a $58,000 car and insurance was $660 per year. Now it is worth about $9,000 and I pay over $1,200 per year, clean record.
My cable/internet jumped from from $132 to $151 this month, no notice, no reason. Just a 14.39% increase and they will blame it costs associated with the pandemic. But over the last two years I had a total of 1.6% COLA increase because there is nearly no inflation. MY ASS! It is raging out of control as bad if not worse than when Carter was in office.
Every single thing I have to buy, all of it, from haircuts to pizza, all foods (when you can get them) are up nearly universally by double digits. More than a few things by triple digits.
We are in for a very rough ride and Mish, add a 1 in front of your prediction, even a two in front would be closer than your guess. House prices here are up 16% YOY, auto new and used are skyrocketing. Garden supplies are astronomical. For the first time in decades our normal medical inflation looks tame in this economy compared to everything else.