3.4% Year-Over-Year Coming Up

My expectation is primarily based on easy year-over-year comparisons plus smaller increases in some key indexes. 

If the price of energy moderates, then things will likely turn lower. 

Shelter, not energy, is the key component and I strongly disagree with the BLS methodology of using rent instead of home prices. 

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For discussion of what the CPI would look like if actual home prices were used, please see Hello Fed, Inflation is Rampant and Obvious, Why Can't You See It?

Mish

As Reported, Consumer Price Inflation Is Lower Than Expected Once Again

Once again the BLS reports tame inflation and this time with negative revisions.

Rare Territory: Consumer Prices On the Decline

The CPI declined 0.4% month-over-month in March, with gasoline and energy leading the way.

CPI Month-Over-Month -0.1 Percent, Year-Over-Year +2.4 Percent

Month-over-month the CPI fell 0.1%. Year-over-year, vs. easy comparisons, the CPI rose 2.4%. Treasury reaction: big yawn

Consumer Expectations: Home Prices, Spending, Household Income, Inflation

Every month, the NY Fed conducts a survey of consumer expectations. The lead chart is from the Fed, I created the others

One Year Look-Ahead Expectations: Household Income, Inflation, Spending

Every month, the NY Fed conducts a survey of consumer expectations. The top chart is from the Fed, I created the others.