I have been watching this pattern for weeks.
For 24 consecutive weeks the change in the number of continued claims has alternated between positive and negative numbers.
Initial Unemployment Claims
Initial unemployment claims turn into continued claims a week later minus those finding a new job.
Continued Unemployment Claims
The obvious implication is that on average, everyone being fired quickly (within a week) finds a new job, like clockwork for 24 straight weeks.
Related Posts
April 30, 2025: ADP Employment Report Much Weaker than Expect, Large Employment Stalls
Economists expected 125,000 jobs. ADP reported 62,000 with negative revisions.
Businesses with 20-49 employees have been struggling since the beginning of 2024. We are now seeing a rapid deceleration of the largest employers.
At least according to ADP.
April 25, 2025: Which State Will Have the Highest Unemployment Rate in the Next Recession?
History suggests Michigan will likely be hit the hardest.
May 2, 2025: Jobs Rise by 177,000 in April, 58,000 Negative Revisions in Preceding Months
The BLS beats the street again vs expectations of 130,000 jobs.
Could all the government firing have something to do with it. Fired / reinstated. Fired. Reinstated. Etc.
i assume all those gove / vendors employees applied for unemployment as soon as the were terminated.
Not going back to November of 2024
DOGE should take a look at this.
“Figures don’t lie, but liars do figure.”
Confused about Trump’s tariff policy? Join the club.
Hiltzik: What’s Trump’s goal with the tariffs? – Los Angeles Times (archive.ph)
Great article, perfectly illustrates MAGA dumb in all 5 dimensions.
42% of the 88 million medicaid recipients are non-disabled adults less than 65. There are 7-8 million job openings available. That’s quite a delta. With regard to immigration, before the 1930’s immigrants were pretty much on their own; now the social net provided by US taxpayers and the large government %-GDP deficits make America a very attractive magnet with congressional politicians incentivized by non-citizen census inclusion in representation proportionality. The small swings in monthly unemployment underestimate the below the surface iceberg of mostly service sector job availability for the 35 million adult medicaid recipients. Current SPX final peak valuation to incipient crash fractal model from the low on 27 October 2023 to 17 June 2025: 55/139/136/83 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x with a peak valuation on 19 Feb 2025, a lower high on 20 May 2025 and incipient crash low on 17 June 2025.
Smells like a data collection/ statistical issue.
Oscillations are suspect.
Data smoothing algorithms may have changed. Previous data sets never lead to high frequency oscillations.
It could very well be the labor market is gyrating as reported, which indicates a very large system instability problem ahead.
I doubt those on UI are voluntarily giving up weekly unemployment checks, but they might falsely report being unemployed a couple of weeks after finding a job.
The issue with the labor market are demographic forces. Millions of boomers continue to retire each year, some voluntarily others not. Trump is rounding up illegal immigrants and check the story in the link below to see how that impacts businesses. The irony is the owner is a big MAGA clown.
Nothing is going to fix the aging of the American workforce, it’s not even viable anymore given the median age of women in America is pushing 40. It’s all real-time demographic collapse now, an earthquake taking down business by business maybe not all at once but fracturing day by day.
Warren Buffett just sold off all his financial stocks recently and that’s very telling about the current situation. I used this sucker’s rally to take some profits.
https://www.nashvillescene.com/news/pithinthewind/lower-broadway-ice-sweeps/article_7840f5c5-fba5-447c-bb20-14016fc661aa.html
At the instruction of managers, restaurant employees without legal citizenship status left the premises at The Diner, Honky Tonk Central and Kid Rock’s Big Ass Honky Tonk Rock N’ Roll Steakhouse during a primetime rush on Saturday night to avoid detention by ICE agents. Locations, already struggling to provide full service, suffered through at least Sunday due to fears from employees who did not want to risk arrest by returning to work.
And Trump wants to bring back manufacturing? We don’t have enough cooks in the kitchen, literally.
Got exit strategy?
And for those that still don’t believe or understand the demographic death spiral, Penn State shutting down campuses all over the place.
No people = no economy.
The fed can raise or lower rates to whatever they want, they can drop free money from helicopters and congress can pass whatever tax incentives they want, none of those things will fix the demographic death spiral.
So MAGA can rejoice all they want about ICE raids and TV sound bites about it but the only way out of this mess is with massive immigration. Perhaps now people will understand why “open borders” has been a thing at all.
It will be interesting to see where we are a year from now if Trump keeps up his ICE raids. I wonder how many shops will shutdown or how high inflation will spike.
High Ed colleges oversupply. There are not enough zoomers to keep PA state colleges opened. Chinese and Indians go to CMU. Josh Shapiro had to cut PA budget deficit where it’s least painful. In 2009, when the US was breaking apart, Obama sent kids to state colleges instead of rioting in the streets and causing troubles. Josh supports old farmers. He encourage young people to replace them. There are not enough elderly to keep PA hospitals opened.
Hopefully ALL businesses that hire illegals will be shut down.
They won’t ever be shut down (at least the big businesses), haven’t for the last 50 years, they just get a slap on the wrist with a wink & nod then it’s business as usual.
But you can fantasize about it all you want.
Great – let’s stop all construction, crop picking, fast food etc.
You are fucking Nuts – get a grip
I’ve read that Obama deported 3 million illegal aliens. Democrats only complained during Biden when it was hurting Democrat populations, such as Martha’s Vineyard or a mass influx into NYC. Only moved to cut back the influx when it looked like Democrats could lose the White House because of it. Mass illegal immigration has created a mess, not solved a mess. Biden did it to overwhelm the system, as in Rules for Radicals and Coward Piven strategy, not because of a need for third world workers.
The ziondon didn’t ask Bibi permission to shake Syria president hands. Al Golani, who looks like Theodor Herzl, the zionism founder, wants to make peace with Israel when Israel is ready. Trump leaves the Gulf states with $2T orders for futures jobs and wilh a request to settle with Iran nuke deal peacefully. It’s either $2T in unrealized promises to flood the Gulf States with modern weapons or his ego. QQQ reached Jan 31 close, but SPX is lagging behind below Feb close. Option: both might flip in June. It will be volatile for a while, before ==> SPX 7K in a low slog up to mid 2026. Recession on hold.
Sine waves. Welcome to Skynet.
jesus!! good one mish!
why anybody need other proof that all those gov reports are simple bogus??
product of excel spreadsheets and 8th grade math
esp. those reported frequently
Take the red pill!
it is called projection, you would know if visited college
see a doctor mo1ron!
waste of brain cells to analyze most of gov data in the short term. GDP includes department of war spending. hardly productive. best chart of all time is dow/gold ratio over past century. or the median house/gold ratio.
The volitivity we see in most of the economic reports should not be there.
So why is it? Who could benefit from this? Biden used to brag (every two months) about some report that made his results look better. Now the media slams Trump (every two months) about some report that make his results look bad. Could the two be related?
Don’t forget the various “seasonal adjustments” and etc.
Remember those truckers making 6 figures and driving around in limousines? You don’t hear much about that fantasy anymore because shortly after the “truck driver shortage” media hype ended, the trucking industry went into a tailspin and has been down ever since.
How about those hotshot tech workers who could “name their price” and have their pick of several lucrative jobs? Also gone. After the COVID hiring boom ended, the bust happened and now the job market is slim pickings.
The upheaval with the Federal work force is yet to be fully felt in the job market, but it will have ripple effects. The job market and the housing market in DC has entered a bust.
You won’t hear the financial press talk about any of this because all they care about is stocks going up. Happy news keeps the party going, even if the ship is sinking.
Speaking of truck drivers. The luddites are being revived. Don’t take our jobs.
Poor DC. Creates almost nothing, richest counties in the US, epicenter of mass formation psychosis, toilet swirl of taxpayer dollars, greed, grift, corruption. Kind of like Moscow in the Soviet Union days. Make it into a big park.
gov housing projects all over moscow are frightening testament to how docile most human primates are to their silver backs.
50 Story tenement buildings in DC and surrounding counties. Great idea!