Chicago slashed 2,103 public safety job but added 184 administrators. The budget deficit is nearly $1 billion. 
$982 Million Budget Hole
The Illinois Policy Institute comments on Chicago’s 2025 Budget, Growing Crime, and Taxes.
Chicago has cut 2,103 police positions but added 184 administrators, a manpower blunder that won’t help city leaders fix their nearly $1 billion budget deficit.
Major obstacles facing Mayor Brandon Johnson’s $17.3 billion budget for fiscal year 2025 are a $982 million shortfall and $4.2 billion in personnel costs. Personnel spending in Chicago will consume $168.7 million more of the city’s corporate fund in 2025, further oppressing taxpayers in America’s reigning “highest-taxed city.”
In a major flip-flop on his campaign promises, Johnson proposed a $300 million property tax hike to address these issues. All 50 aldermen voted to reject it. Now, Johnson is considering a smaller $150 million property tax hike and a 35% tax on alcohol. His new taxes are likely to meet the same City Council opposition, so he needs a new plan.
Chicago Cuts 2,103 Police Department Jobs
The bulk of the city’s personnel growth has come from the Department of Public Health, the Department of Technology and Innovation, and the Department of Family and Support Services. These departments have collectively added 196 full-time equivalent employees, supported by various city funds. Some of the growth in these departments is likely a result of the city’s migrant crisis.
Given the fiscal reality facing Chicago, just cutting vacant positions will not be enough to close the city’s nearly $1 billion shortfall. Foisting tax increases on an already severely tax-burdened city won’t work, either.
Absent from Johnson’s 2025 budget proposal is any demand for pension reform, something both his predecessors backed.
Chicago’s Efficiency Strategy
The city introduced the Office of Public Safety Administration as part of the 2020 budget’s cost-saving efficiency strategy. This bureaucratic entity is responsible for overseeing all administrative functions for the Chicago Police Department, the Chicago Fire Department, and the Office of Emergency Management and Communications.
The Office of Public Safety Administration brought in 390 full-time civilian administrators through a combination of shifting existing civilian positions and hiring new civilian employees. By adding these civilian administrators, the city expected the new office to enhance efficiency and help uniformed officers focus on frontline, public safety efforts.
During its first year in operation, the city expected the office to save Chicago $2 million. Despite experiencing little change in the number of its full-time equivalent employees, its costs exceeded its savings. It more than tripled its administration and finance costs, spending nearly $35 million since 2020.
Pension Disaster
It’s Hopeless
Despite the massive stock market boom, the Chicago Firefighters pension is only 21.6 percent funded.
Police is 31.1 percent funded. The Teachers’ pension is only 43.4 percent funded.
Brandon Johnson is a former teachers’ union organizer and is beholden to the union at the expense of safety, Chicago businesses, and citizens.
It’s quite something when aldermen vote 50-0 against a mayoral proposal. Has that ever happened before?
Also, the entire school board resigned en masse this month, and was replaced by a new group of mayoral appointees.
The New York Times notes “Mr. Johnson had proposed a $300 million high-interest loan to cover a $175 million pension for staff members in the district who aren’t teachers, and to cover pay increases for members of the union, among other things.”
“The entire Chicago Board of Education getting forced out for refusing to oust a fiscally responsible C.E.O. during contract negotiations is stunning,” said Bill Conway, a City Council member, adding that the students “deserve stability, not chaos.”
This short-term borrowing allegedly balances the books while digging the city and pension plans further in the hole.
Your Fair Share
Illinois’ pension crisis has put taxpayers on the hook for $211 billion in unfunded state and local pension liabilities according to the Illinois Policy Institute.
The Census Reporter shows the population of Illinois is 12.55 million and shrinking. There are 5.07 million households.
If you live in Illinois, your household share is $41,617. By the way, 11.6 percent of the population is below the poverty line.
Radical Change Needed
The Illinois Policy Institute outlines a number of suggestions to get Chicago on track.
But it will take radical change and pension haircuts starting with a constitutional amendment to allow municipal bankruptcy.
Under threat of pension plan insolvency, then and only then will there be any leverage by cities to rein in pension plans, public unions, and benefits.
The Illinois Policy Institute missed this key reform idea specifically, although note the need for a constitutional change.
Openly Rooting for Implosion
I am openly rooting for Chicago and the entire pension system of Illinois to implode.
That sounds harsh bit it isn’t.
There will be no reform until crisis hits, and the sooner the better because those currently collecting unwarranted massive pensions are bleeding the pension funds dry.
The sooner the collapse, the more pension money will be saved for the average Joe.
Good pension reform would target excesses on the top end with a threat of municipal bankruptcy hanging over everyone’s head if the unions refuse to cooperate.
That is the only proposal that works.
Congratulations to Chicago
It was a tough act to find someone worse than Lori Lightfoot for mayor, but you succeeded.
Chicagoans, you voted for this. Congrats. I now challenge you to find someone even worse.
The Pending Implosion of Chicago Public Unions, No City is More Deserving
August 30, 2024: The Pending Implosion of Chicago Public Unions, No City is More Deserving
Chicago has a budget deficit of nearly $1 billion. Tack on another $2.9 billion for a proposed teachers’ contract plus an unknown amount for firefighters.
March 13, 2024: Chicago Teachers’ Union Seeks $50 Billion Despite $700 Million City Deficit
If you live in Illinois, get the hell out before unions take every penny you have.
In Chicago There’s Under a 50 Percent Chance Police Show Up If You are Shot
Meanwhile, please note that In Chicago There’s Under a 50 Percent Chance Police Show Up If You are Shot
Good luck in Chicago getting the police to show up if you are shot, stabbed, a victim of domestic violence, or any number of other serious crimes.
But hey, Chicago hired 179 new community services administrators. How’s that working for you?
And where will Chicago find $1 billion in cuts out of a budget of $17.3 billion? More police cuts?
Hello President Trump
This morning, I noted Trump’s Nauseating Pick for Labor Secretary Is the Teacher’s Union Favorite
Dear President Trump, how the hell do you think you are going to dismantle the Department of Education with a teacher’s union advocate as Labor Secretary?
Note: I trash comments that say “Test”
Chicagoan: Vote Democrat to stick it to the man!
{Looks in the mirror}
Oh crap – I’m the man! 🙁
When Lightfoot was fired all they really did was replace one completely out of touch unqualified socialist for another.. the impending implosion of Chicago will be a cautionary till for other blue cities.. inevitable… complete lack of confident governance is astonishing.. get the popcorn out
It took over 6 years (2002 – 2008) for Kwame Kilpatrick to drive Detroit into bankruptcy. I’m afraid it won’t take that long for Chicago under the present mayor. It’s going to be a real dumpster fire.
“In Chicago There’s Under a 50 Percent Chance Police Show Up If You are Shot“
But, and this is infinitely worse: A100% chance the jackboots show up, IN MASSIVE FORCE, if you properly arm up and deal with it yourself.
Just as always and everywhere: The Jackboots, as well as all else which make up the drivel that the gullible indoctrinati are told to mindlessly cheer for as “OMG, It’s The Laaaawww!!!”, exists for exactly no other reason at all, than running interference for scum. Which a properly armed militia; and deputized civilians; would dispatch of cheaply, efficiently and fairly. All without hardly breaking a sweat.
JB reversed his plan. https://news.wttw.com/2024/11/25/under-fire-mayor-brandon-johnson-reverses-deep-cuts-police-reform-push-and-restores-162
Calling Mrs. O’Leary’s cow.
You missed the fact t that Illinois state employees get a minimum 5% raise every year after they retires, after 20 years. Lifeguards and tennis instructors in Chicago make more than $100,000 per year.
Yes – Thanks!
It is 3% raise every year.
3% of the base pension, not compounded.
Ask me how I know.
State retiree here. Actually, it is 3%. However, it compounds and is not tied to inflation as it should be. Most state workers do not receive SSI because the state opted out in lieu of a pension. The average hourly pay in 2024 for a Chicago lifeguard was $21.95. They normally work 3 months. That’s about $10K not 100K.
Better keep voting Democrat, Chicago.
lol
“It’s Hopeless”
The laws of math are exerting themselves, exceedingly.
QE will extend to cities and states.
QE+Lower Fed rates (negative)+Tarrifs =
End of Roman Empire Version II
No way out.
Chcago has 31,000 LESS people than it had in 15 yrs ago. That is pretty bad. Very stagnant. No growth. Less tax payers. Not a good outlook.
It “looks” just like the bankruptcy of Detroit. What have we learned? Nothing. When things reach peoples pain point they, pack up and leave. Of coures the wealthy and the upper middle class can afford to move, so they go first. Busineses leave as fast as they can. Chicago has reached the Free Fall stage. Don’t expect Trump to bail them out. He still has to bail out Social Security, etc,etc.
How many busses from Texas do you need to bring in 31,000 people?
BREAKING: Donald Trump says he will impose an additional 10% tariff on goods from China and 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico.
He says the tariffs are due to open borders, drugs, and illegal aliens.
These tariffs will be signed on January 20th as “one of many first Executive Orders
Trash it Mish. Im waiting.
These countries should change their behaviors. Then no tariffs. Balls in their court. Tick tock
25% on CL, cars, nukes, timber… from Canada ?
Elections have consequences
Breaking: Trump says [fill in some random crazy sh!t!!]!!!!!
Wow! Ain’t that a surprise….
Not soon enough.
The morning after the election Dave Collum was saying it was a small contingent of Antifa protesting in the Loop. Looked like the regular fat slobs from SEIU on OT and CTU/CPS to me.
Tiffany Henyard might be looking for a new gig.
Now that is funny!
Mayor Eric Adams’ administration has even projected the cost could double, hitting $10 billion over the three year period ending June 30, 2025
That’s one city. For illegals. Total and complete failure.
Here Are the 30,000 Pages of Federal Reserve Board Meeting Minutes I Got Through FOIA. They Completely Rewrite Federal Reserve History.https://www.crisesnotes.com/here-are-the-30-000-pages-of-federal-reserve-board-meeting-minutes-i-got-through-foia/
Please read them and then let us know. Take your time
“Despite the massive stock market boom, the Chicago Firefighters pension is only 21.6 percent funded.”
Holy you know what.
Imagine how bad it will get if Trump is able to withhold federal $$$ for impeding ICE’s deportation of illegals. Throw in a few arrests, and maybe 2025 will be the year that these morons will at least get recalled.
Is Chicago becoming a Detroit ? Would Anna schwartz and Milton Friedman leave Chicago ?
It is an interesting case study in tipping points. People easily leave the city to avoid taxes. Leaving the state is harder for many people.
At what point does the exit of the people who can leave defund the system sufficiently so that it death spirals?
Related – are they all moving to Texas and Florida suburban areas?
Many are moving to NW Indiana.
Milton Friedman believed in freedom, capitalism and that the gov should stay out of people’s business as much as possible. Black lives matter don’t care about Milton Friedman. The nativist white escaped in droves before it’s too late. It became unbearable, bleeding properties value and too risky. Chicago might be torn by a civil war. It spread its cancer to nearby states and the rest of the country.
Friedman did leave Chicago and moved to San Francisco after he retired in 1977 and had won the Nobel prize in economics.
BLM is taking care of public safety in Chicago. Obama disciples community organizers service will expand to prevent black on black crime. Looters transfer wealth from the rich to the poor. The Fed did the same 4 years ago. Latino gangs, beefed up with new immigrants, will fight Farrakhan’s special forces, to gain power in Chicago, to beat Islam, under Trump.
Chicago has made a big bet that Uncle Sam will come to the rescue (actually, all the big cities in blue states are in on that action). If will be a combination of federally administered bankruptcy and forgivable loans from the Feds. There was a nice precedent in Detroit. Chicago has an excellent chance of winning that bet.
Yet, even if and when Chicago goes under, it will have enough sway in Springfield to get a bail out from the state coffers. And even if they vote against Johnson the residents of Chicago will simply replace him with another spendthrift left wing Democrat. Because that’s what Chicago does.
Pritzker says no bailout for Chicago. Johnson and Pritzker don’t get along.
Who knows….all I know is IWM is up 11% this month and I just sold January 17 $260 calls for a tidy profit. Been busy making money, can’t post too many comments, gotta prep for more profits tomorrow.
Would be great to see some economic posts. Is the Fed going to raise, cut or stall? We’re getting close to the end of year and Trump inaugural chaos so gotta make every trade count now. Will close out all options on January 17 and wait for chaos to reign.
Yeah I’d ignore democratic governance also. Tough to talk about
I’ve started putting some money into SGOV (iShares 3-month treasuries) yielding 5.23% I’m definitely late to the party. I sold some TLT (20YT) for a small profit. I got tired of waiting for the recession, but it’s returned a nice dividend over the past 18 months. I still have about $10K though. When the recession arrives, it should go from about $93 now up to at least $120.
As you can tell, I’m conservative. I bought some Quantum Scape @ $4.96 and a few other stocks. I don’t have the stomach for options trading but glad to see you profiting. I’ll definitely deploy some money into the stock market, when the recession arrives.
I think the Fed is going to cut once more 25 BP because they’ve taken their eye off inflation and are starting to worry about interest costs. How far the T-Bills & 2-3 Notes will fall is hard to say. I do think there’s still a lot of energy left in the economy, but I also think continued claims will push above 2M by January. There are a fair number of people who are being laid off that aren’t finding work. This is slowly but surely putting a drag on the economy. I think it’s downhill for housing but not a cliff.
At some in late 2025, I think there will be a mild recession. With some luck, Trump will get private sector employment to start rising. That’s the key to watch and of course what comes of the DOGE recommendations. Trump will have to be careful about cutting too many federal jobs too quickly. Basically, he needs to push a lot of people to retire early and not refill most of those jobs to meet cost savings.
Beyond that, let’s see if he torpedo’s earmarks & tells Congress they have to submit budgets. This will determine if he’s serious about cutting into the budget deficit. I would hope he can slash about $400B from the annual budget deficit by the time he departs in early 2029.
What are the best put / call months and strike prices for the “chaos trade” options?
Interest rates are going to zero and you know why. 🙂 Donald wants it. Strangely, all the condos in a residential area here that were $125k have disappeared. There is nothing left lower than $250k. If everyone knows the zeroes are coming, I’d say people are buying up everything they can before the zeroes arrive and the 2008-2022 buying continues.
Interest rates won’t see zero again unless Trump policies crash the economy, and perhaps not even then if it’s a stagflationary recession.
You are too worldly not to know what happens to a Trump henchman who doesnt do what Trump wants. Trump will want the zeroes so the hedge funds and private equity (rich people) can buy up the rest of America for free without anyone figuring it out. It already happened once (2008-2022) and it will happen again. What does a dictator care about inflation?
So you think it’s the president that tells the banks what to do. How… quaint.
As you know, I live in Chicago. I would remind everyone that cities and counties are not mentioned in the US Constitution. Federal and state is all that matters. STATES control all government units (in Illinois) and that includes Chicago. Before you blame all the C- government people in Chicago, and all the bad things that come from our high wages, best health care, real infrastructure and the benefits of “people living close together,” please remember a) how little city government controls much of anything and b) how long the “Illinois Policy Institute” has been predicting the sky was gonna fall .. for years and years and years. We have food, we have heat, and we’re doing fine .. for the moment. 🙂
Doing fine. Murders galore. Completely broke. Keep up the good work le bouf
Im alive, not yet a victim to any real crime, and getting more money in retirement than I did working. Sometimes blather is just that … blather.
Truth is a function of time. Be sure to advertise how well you are doing in retirement to your friends, neighbors, and people in your community.
Truth is timeless. Public relations, advertising, marketing, the dark side of capitalism, and the taking advantage of the old and desperate (Fox News) is what creates the lies.
Uh huh. https://nypost.com/2024/11/25/us-news/cops-being-trained-on-how-to-spot-tren-de-aragua-as-they-traffic-pink-cocaine/
Congrats to the parasites now collecting while everyone else suffers.
The money doesnt stay in my pocket. Someone else gets it.
Are you criticizing Scott LeBoo specifically or all the current Social Security recipients collecting checks?
In 10 years, there won’t be enough collected to pay out the ‘promised’ SS benefits, so obviously those parasites paid in too little and are now planning to fleece the rest of us suffering for years as we are left holding the bag.
Lets not give the workers too much credit. 🙂 Most of the real work done in the world today is provided by crude oil and farmland. Those two resources do most of the work of the human world.
Dear Hurb, Social security ran out of money to pay 100%, of promised benefits in 2009. You can have your own opinions, bu not your own facts.
I didn’t worry about Chicago crime until I was mugged a stone’s throw from the University of Chicago campus in July 1971!
What are you? A Palestinian? You hold a grudge for a 50 year old crime??? 🙂 By the way, that University is surrounded by ghetto. You were supposed to know that and stay away.
Pritzker is running out of donuts. Trouble ahead.
Brandon is doing a fine job with the gang bangers. They’re getting more head shots in. During Trump 1, homicides decreased every year. Right now, 559 kills, on pace with 2023. Let’s go Brandon! (source : Heyjackass.com)
At this time in 2023, there were 605 kills.
There were 612 homicides in 2023. About 50 a month. Chicago is at 559 now. So that would be on pace. I have faith in the gang bangers.
And yet somehow people still vote Democrat.
When your approval-rating is less than Lori Lightfoot’s, you must be absolutely incompetent and unlikeable to boot.