Eight states opened up or partially opened up restaurant operations on May 1 or earlier according to the New York Times.

States Reopened for Restaurants 

  • Alaska: April 24
  • Florida:Traffic May 4 -25%
  • Georgia April 24
  • Indiana: May 11 - 50%
  • Iowa: May 15
  • Kansas: May 4
  • Missouri :May 4
  • Montana: May 4
  • Nebraska: May 4 -50%
  • Nevada: May 9
  • North Dakota: May 1
  • Oklahoma: May 1
  • South Carolina: May 11 - 50% 
  • South Dakota: Never Closed
  • Tennessee: May 1
  • Texas May 1 - 25-50% by location
  • Utah: May 1
  • West Virginia: May 4
  • Wisconsin: May 13: By Supreme Court Ruling 

States May 1 or earlier: Alaska, Georgia, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah

Open Table

OpenTable tracks sit-down diners at 20,000 restaurants and it also providers downloadable data from which one can produce charts. 

The data indexes two things: first, overall impact of Covid 19 on the industry by showing year-over-year seated diners at a sample of all restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins; second, how the industry rebounds as markets reopen by showing restaurants re-opening rate multiplied by their fill rate as compared year-over-year.

For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year. For example, we’d compare Tuesday of week 11 in 2020 to Tuesday of week 11 in 2019. Only states or metros with 50+ restaurants on the OpenTable network for 2019 or 2020 are included in the sample

To better reflect the state of the overall industry, this dataset is based on a sample of approximately 20,000 restaurants that provide OpenTable with information on all of their inventory. This sample of restaurants typically accounts for a majority of our seated online reservations.

Of the 8 states open May 1 or earlier, OpenTable tracks Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, and Utah. Tennessee. 

Global Restaurant Traffic  

Reataurant Traffic Year-Over-Year Global 2020-05-14

May 14 Global Synopsis  to Nearest Percent

  1. Global: -96%
  2. Australia: -99%
  3. Canada: -100%
  4. Germany: -92%
  5. Ireland: -99%
  6. Mexico: -99%
  7. United Kingdom: -99%
  8. US: -95%

May 14 US Synopsis to Nearest Percent

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  • US: -95%
  • Georgia: -88%
  • Oklahoma: -79%
  • Tennessee: -85%
  • Texas: -83%
  • Utah: -88%

Trends?

Several people on Twitter projected the states' percentage trendlines to get back to 100% but such projections are not close to reasonable.

Rules are subject to change every day and so are consumer concerns. 

That aside, it is sure to be a long slog nationally. 

Some states will not open until the end of the month or even June. And the percentages of traffic allowed varies by state and even county. 

Perhaps traffic gets back to 75%-80% by the end of the year.

Consumer balance sheets have been so damaged and social changes disrupted so much that full recovery this year is highly unlikely.

No V-Shaped Recovery

As noted on Friday, Retail Sales Plunge Way More Than Expected

Even the fed understands there will not be a V-Shaped recovery.

Instead they are promoting a helicopter drop of money. For details, please see Panic Sets In: Fed Promotes More Free Money

Mish