My Guess of Hussman's Guess
-4.8% annually for 10 years.
Max drawdown -65%.
If I interpret Hussman accurately, I come up with this.
Future Value at -4.8% for 10 Years
MoneyChimp has a nice Compound Interest Rate Calculator.
It allows negative interest rates. Most don't despite the huge amount of negative-yielding bonds.
Hussman on the Fed Model
I do not have a guess as to where we will be 10 years from now but I do expect something on the order of a 65% drawdown between now and then, with some sort of rebound then in play, perhaps no higher than we are now.
US Large Caps
Let's assume the GMO 7-Year Forecast is correct and someone lost 4.4% every year for seven straight years.
That is amazingly tame compared to what some of us think.
Yet, it would crucify pension plans assuming 7% annual gains.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock