The Future is Electric, But When?
Last year battery-powered vehicles made up fewer than 2% of U.S. auto sales. Tesla sold nearly all of them.
Despite the big push towards electric by dealers, Biden, the media, and climate fear mongers, Car Dealers Struggle to Square Industry Enthusiasm With Shoppers’ Reality
Auto makers are moving aggressively to expand their electric-vehicle offerings with dozens of new models set to arrive in coming years. About 180 GM dealers, or roughly 20%, have decided to give up their Cadillac franchises rather than invest in costly upgrades that GM has required to sell electric cars.
“The biggest challenge is that dealers have a bit of ‘boy who cried wolf’ syndrome,” said Massachusetts dealer Chris Lemley.
Car companies have promised for years to make electric cars mainstream, but produced only low-volume, niche models. “So when we are told, ‘This time, we really mean it,’ it’s easy to be skeptical,” Mr. Lemley added.
Tesla Inc.’s influence on the electric-car market has created a new standard for car shoppers, offering an online transaction and a simplified lineup with no price negotiation.
Volvo Cars CEO Håkan Samuelsson recently said that all future battery-electric vehicles would be sold exclusively online and the price would be set centrally, eliminating the ability to haggle.
“The marketplace is moving from the physical dealership to online. That’s what will happen in the next 10 years,” Mr. Samuelsson said.
Best-Selling Electric Vehicles in 2020
GM’s Electric Pledge
The WSJ notes that Chevrolet dealer Brad Sowers sold 4,000 cars last year. He sold only 9 electric Bolts.
On January 28, I noted GM to Phase Out Gas-Powered Vehicles by 2035, Carbon Neutral by 2040
That’s one heck of a commitment given Tesla has about a 79% share of the 2% of total sales that are electric.
Volvo to Make Only Electric Vehicles by 2030
MarketWatch reports Volvo to Make Only Electric Vehicles by 2030 and Require Online Purchase.
The Swedish automaker said Tuesday that it is phasing out the production of all cars with internal combustion engines — including hybrids
“There is no long-term future for cars with an internal combustion engine,” said Henrik Green, Volvo’s chief technology officer.
Despite the rising number of EVs available in the U.S., fully electric vehicles accounted for less than 2% of new vehicle sales last year. Americans continue to spend record amounts on gas-powered trucks and SUVs.
How Will Dealers Fit In?
Let’s assume GM pulls off this seemingly miraculous feat despite current customer preferences.
What About Service?
Dealers make a lot of money off of service.
What are the service departments and mechanics going to do?
Service won’t go away entirely, but the lion’s will be body shops and tires, not oil changes and expensive engine tune-ups.
Death of the Dealer
One way or another, the death of the auto dealer as we know them today is not that far off.
But before any of this happens, we need better batteries, cheaper batteries, faster charging batteries, and more battery charging or battery swapping stations.
Big Bang Theory
Absolutely
Slowly at first, then a big bang. https://t.co/UkISKM7D4t
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) March 8, 2021
Mish
car compainies now think global platforms. they will not make unique vehicle for just the American market. Electric vehicles from each of the major manufacturers will be available on each continent at roughly the same time. It may be a little sloppy but it will happen. Gov’t just needs to do its part to ensure the infrastructure is there.
“The WSJ notes that Chevrolet dealer Brad Sowers sold 4,000 cars last year. He sold only 9 electric Bolts.”
I remember the Edsel. It didn’t sell well either.
Predictions for 2030 or 2035 are like car company predictions a half dozen years ago that they’d have full self-driving by 2020/2021. Only with an added dose of horoscopic tea-leaf. Such feel-good predictions are humming a tune in the dangerous dark.
Ignore them.
You want to know the future? For the last 200 years humanity has inexorably raised the value of people relative to things. What kind of car does a rich person buy? That’s the car the average Joe in ’35 will buy.
Except car competition is not between EVs and ICEs. It’s between cars and fiber optics.
This is all still very problematical and impractical – it needs a lot more work:
Battery swapping: pay through the no$e for the battery in a new car, then get the battery swapped out for a worn-out piece of junk holding very little charge. How will anyone ever be able to trust swapping stations in any general way? How will a trustworthy swapping station ever be able to trust just any old incoming car?
Battery charging: takes forever. Who has an hour or three to waste at a charging station? The only practical approach might be to own a hou$e with an enclosed lockable garage having expen$ive wiring for at least overnight charge. Because of vandalism, overnight charging will be completely useless without a locked enclosure.
Weather: battery toy$ seem more suited for $outhern California and Florida than anywhere else in the USA, Canada, or even most of Europe. And in cold weather they’ll remain mostly toys until and unless batteries are vastly improved. Difficult constraint: said batteries have to be improved in a manner that doesn’t encourage them to explode in hot weather.
This kind of stuff is we get with today’s bog-standard political posturing that’s totally unhinged from reality. Just like with a lot of other things.
A new Tesla Model 3 has a base price of around $40,000 and when you add a few options, sales tax,license,and title you are pushing around $50,000.
If you order one today you can receive it in about 4 to 6 weeks so there isn’t that much of demand problem.
The battery pack lasts about 8 to 10 years and cost about $10,000 to replace and can take 2 to 3 days to replace.
So those 2012 and 2013 Model S battery packs are starting to reach the end of their life cycle and the other years will follow shortly.
Do you want to purchase a 8 year old Tesla that needs a battery pack?
If battery cars are the answer then stop making gasoline today and see what happens.
The demand for battery cars is just not there.
I could see having some sort of hybrid. Electric for town and still have the ability to travel.
Talked to a guy years ago he said his family electric car was always on the road. Cheaper than gas no maintenance such as brake pads / oil change/ fluids etc.
I would think gas autos will still be needed for places like wyoming where it gets really cold/ or say remote places like alaska. Were you need carry a extra can of gas just in case. But for the average person in the average place should work fine.
Tesla has quality issues that you often read about. I really think the future is in hydrogen cars like Toyota and Honda are developing. They are much easier to refuel than electric cars.
It isn’t that electric cars will displace IC cars, it is that automobility (beyond golf cart range) is just about over in these no longer united states. It would take a LOT more than marginal improvements in existing technology and electric grid service to make the sort of widespread use of electric vehicles a reality. The plan (read about it, this is no secret) is to do away with hydrocarbon fuels and auto use as a part of the great reset. There will be fewer people around to driveas well, but that is a different part of the plan.
All this talk about electric cars is interesting, but not important.
I’d phrase it differently. The big hold-up seems to be in electric recharge stations. once that is solved a lot more people will migrate to the new tech. For this to happen we need crtiical mass. Absolutely essential for government to jump start and get the fleets on electric. This non-sense where DeJoy undermined Biden and putting in a ig contract for gasoline powered postal vehicles was dysnfunctional and petty. I underand they can be upgraded later but this is the deep state Trump refers to.
I don’t think that will help much. people don’t want to wait a long time for a charge. What’s needed is a charging station at every parking spot so the cars will charge while people are shopping.
You have to get the infrastructure out there. the market will then respond with faster charging stations
Mobile Charging for EVs Could Be The Future With A Startup Called SparkCharge link to jalopnik.com
The current electrical grid is running at peak capacity with less then 1% in electric cars. It cannot supply power for 10% of vehicles being electric. Nuclear power plants are back on the drawing board for the extra load requirement. Uranium and Uranium miners have been going up.
Electric Vehicles Are the U.S. Auto Industry’s Future—if Dealers Can Figure Out How to Sell Them
Car dealers say they are struggling to square the industry’s enthusiasm with shoppers’ reality (wsj)
Will the electrical grid be able to support a large number of electric vehicles?
No.
Not in Texas! [lol]
No, cities can’t even run air conditioners in the summer.
It’s not a problem. Remember that nearly everybody only drives 30-40 miles a day so for the vast majority of people, that’s all they need to top their battery up every night. Nearly everyone also has all night to do that given that their car is parked all night long so recharging those 30-40 miles can be spread to charge very slowly over a good 10-12 hours. This type of usage should not overly tax the grid.
Will the electrical grid be able to support a massive number electric vehicles?
I don’t quite understand how or why the price of cars hasn’t come down over time like every other piece of technology. It seems to be more like a house. Anything reliant on financing through the banking system has a price that goes up not down. Great scam. Imagine a world where you had to pay cash for everything. Prices of cars and homes would crash quickly and be in line with other consumer goods.
It’s the batteries and their dependence on rare earth elements. Particularly lithium. I read they’ve made progress on aluminum ion batteries, which would be far cheaper and safer, but not sure if it’s ready to go just yet. Or if it ever will be.
The price of cars has gone up because they are now overly equipped with 8 surround speakers, backup cameras, infotainment centers, USB plugs, leather seats/steering wheel, heated/AC seats etc. That’s just in the area where passengers sit.
Then factor in all the new safety equipment like anti-lock brakes, tire pressure sensors, anti-collision sensors (front, on side mirrors etc), more computer control than ever on the engine.
That’s where all the costs are. There are still a very few models of basic car and truck out there. You can still find a basic 2 seat pickup with no leather and no options for a cheap price. The same with a very basic economy car. But no one wants that anymore.
Government regulations sure don’t help keep costs down either.
Even if 100% of cars and trucks are electric that doesn’t do shit for global warming if the power used to charge the batteries isn’t wind, solar, hydro or nuclear.
I think they’ll be more green, but not as much as people think. They still need inefficiently burning C02 producing fuel to generate electricity. The cars are also much heavier, so they require more work to travel a given distance. And the tires require replacing 2x as often.
Mining the materials for the batteries is dirtier than the current oil and gas industry.
Not true. Electricity produced by natural gas is cleaner than coal, for example.
Mish, Tesla’s S & X were never going to be mass-market vehicles. The Y and the 3 are nearly there but are still in the “luxury” band of cars. Electric cars will only “explode” when full self-driving (long promised still waiting) is available. Honestly, is there anything more wasteful than a $40,000 asset that sits at home 22 out of 24 hours doing nothing, and needs to be serviced every few months…
Electric cars/trucks have several advantages — few moving parts, little or no maintenance, and lifecycle costs. There is still the issue of upfront cost but the prices are dropping, Tesla is finally introducing LFP batteries (safer, more cycles) to its range of cars.
The other thing I forgot to mention in my comment above is that fleet sales (rental cars) account for roughly 20% of car sales
Those will remain ICE vehicles for quite a while yet (ie last to move to Electric) because renters tend to drive longer distances, stay in hotels (no charging) and lack local knowledge of where to charge.
All that said, a 20 year time frame isn’t that long. Think back 20 years ago to 2000 and hardly anyone was online and the majority who were still used dial-up. Napster was the only way to stream anything and it was music and very slow. Blockbuster ruled video rental (ie video on demand). Hardly anyone would have imagined what would happen in far less than 20 years. Blockbuster long gone and streaming video on demand (Netflix and others) now threatening cable companies. Change happens fast, but it has to be change that benefits people without subsidies. Once Electric surpasses ICE in every way it will be adopted quickly.
This is me. I have a short range Nissan Leaf EV. I rent an ICE vehicle once or twice a year for longer trips. I don’t just rent for the range. I typically want a larger vehicle for long trips. It just doesn’t make sense to own a big ICE SUV when I really only want that size a few days a year. It is far more convenient to have a small car I can easily park and maneuver around town.
I have a Tesla, and about once a month some guy in a noisy Honda or BMW tries to race it, gets beat terribly, and gets all pissed off about it. Apparently having a stock car built with modern tech is cheating…. you are supposed to drive some econobox rigged out with hair dryers and a coffee can muffler to squeeze another 30 HP out of a 250 HP motor. It’s a religion.
Aside from the range issue (which doesn’t really bother me, I have another car for trips… and haven’t really taken any), my electric car makes an ICE car look like a Stanley Steamer. It is massively better in every way. By the time this battery is shot, I’m pretty confident I’ll be able swap in a 400 mile battery. I may be dead by then though.
I think by 2030, the majority of new cars sold will be electric. It has too many advantages over ICE. Costs will come down.
Patience grasshopper.
The trend is towards BEVs.
The trend is towards manufacturers selling direct.
The slower adoption in America is due to the current love of SUV’s and Trucks. Most passenger car models are dead which is why Ford and GM are abandoning the passenger car market in favor of SUV’s and Trucks (also those are where the huge profit margins are).
Once a decent Electric Pickup and SUV hits the market at a competitive price (ie without subsidies) I suspect electric sales will explode. Until they will languish or be niche only.
Hence the cybertruck being built in Texas. Ole Elon is one cagey dude.
“Electric” cars still have motors, it’s not just pure current turning those wheels. Alignment, steering controls, brakes, even the batteries will need some ‘service’ as connections are jarred loose or corrode given the environment in which they operate. Never mind anything that rotates is still going to need oil/grease changes unless bearings/drive shafts are now magically non frictional.
To say absolutely nothing about the ‘service’ that will be required by the endless sensors and software required to run these things. ECM’s and other electrical/software gremlins are just one of the many reasons the dealers garage bays are often full. Good luck when the entire vehicle is run by them.
Electric cars have A/C units, heater cores, window motors, door locks, even common windshield wipers that go bad.
I don’t think the traditional test drive and dealer delivery never mind the service bays will ever go away. Change yes, they have to, go away no.
Then again I’m not buying the total electric thing by 2030-2040 either. Cynic I am.
It’s almost guaranteed a service light will pop up every 7,500 miles with a code. Either you do exactly as you’re supposed to or the warranty is invalid.
Brushless electric motors require almost no maintenance during their lifecycle. This is ancient technology well-proven and solid. Aside from Tires and breaks very little breaks down in a Tesla (Yes I know there have been issues with reliability…). In a Tesla, there are about 150 moving parts…far far lower than in any ICE vehicle
The maintenance and service on my 7 year old Nissan Leaf is WAY lower than any gasoline car I’ve ever owned. I’ve only taken it into a shop three times in the entire time I’ve owned it (to replace tires). I never have to take the car to get oil, get gas, or anything. I just plug it in to my 110V outlet at home every night and it’s ready to go the next morning. I’m never going back. The only thing I would like is a bit more range than the 80 mile range. I figure I will buy a used EV in a few years that has a 150 mile range.
Yes, the foozels will always need adjustment. Ask any mechanic!
I’m a firm believer in the power of free markets.
The only way electric cars will go mainstream is if it’s economically beneficial to do so.
When electric cars and the cost to own them falls below the cost to purchase and operate a gas powered car, then and only then will they go mainstream and expand beyond the niche market.
It’s getting closer, but not there yet.
I will never ever pay more than 5k for a car. My cars last upwards of 15 years after I pay 3-5k with little maintenance. I would never consider paying 40k for a car, that’s more than I expect to pay over my entire life for cars combined.
There’s a lot of people like me.
“more than 5k for a car”
We need to start a club!
OK, time to fess up. I shelled out $9500 for my current wheels maybe 8 or 10 years ago. I was in a hurry and could not find a $4K Honda in a couple hours. Sigh. 🙂 And, if all goes as usual, this car has another 15 years on it.
I own 4 used cars. It’s actually cheaper. If one breaks down I hop in the next one.
I pay almost no taxes on those cars and the insurance on 4 cars is identical to paying for 2, meaning there is virtually no extra cost of ownership for 4 vs. 2.
I also buy another car well before I need it. The reason for this is that if you wait until your old one breaks you will have to pay whatever price the market is offering which is always going to be higher than you want to pay. If you buy it ahead of time, you can look for the deals.
You must have a network of little old ladies that you buy cars from!
Otherwise, 5K is not enough money to get you a reliable car in 2021.
In the US maybe. In europe you can buy a hatchback runaround for under 1K easily, with 100 000 on the clock and in fair condition. If you choose a reliable make (I favour Nissan) and know enough to tell the condition of the mechanics when buying, own experience is minor repair every couple of years. New clutch after five years of driving around 10k a year, often off track and using the motor as brake (I guess you are all on automatics there though…are less reliable also). That is not one off because I have owned a few. The prices people pay for new are ridiculous, they don’t even make them as well nowadays.
I’ve found that when people do not believe me when I never pay more than 5k for a car that they often scoff at it saying “yeah, well it’s not reliable”.
That’s just not true. A 100k mile car runs just as well as a 0 mile car, if it’s been maintained. You may need to change a timing belt or something but that pales in comparison to the cost of buying new.
I laugh at my friends who change cars nearly every year while I drive nice used ones.
I’m buying rental properties every year while they spend everything on car payments. They make more than I do, but I always have spare cash.
People are nuts. I understand that some are attached to their work or position or lifestyle so I guess part of that is just maintaining their destiny or something, but even there few stop to question exactly where they are going they are so caught up in the race, so caught up in getting hold of whatever is next. So it is no surprise that at any downturn they are the ones left high and dry…especially seeing how much debt is accumulated along the way. For 40k I could buy a decent rural property in europe with a few hectares of land, afford to renovate a nice cortijo on it while living frugally but comfortably as I do now, and basically not have to think about working for anyone else ever again… not a dream because I have done this on smaller properties already. Though I have an absolute minimum fixed private income (people here might call it poverty but in fact it allows me complete freedom for endless other pursuits), the next adventure will be a foray into low maintenance permaculture… not nescessarily for subsistence but just because it would be a challenge and interesting to find out what is feasible and how an environment can be organised/organises itself at that scale. To each their own, I suppose.
I got my PDC several years ago. I admire people doing permaculture, but I don’t think it will feed you in most circumstances.
But building a food forest is a long term project that will pay off handsomely over time.
One side of my family are farmers (dairy and sheep mostly) and the other side are more hunter gatherer 🙂 , so I guess I’m aiming somewhere between. My aim would be a year round supplementary supply of fresh food, basically fruit, vegetables and nuts with a more intensive normal field (and orchard) to be able to boost production to fully sufficient at choice. Have always kept poultry, dairy (probably sheep) would be an adventure, so for my diet only cereals would be lacking maybe (because I’m not going to cut and thresh and grind a field of wheat…except just to learn how that is using traditional methods) – not expensive. But really it is more to see how it all goes along as a project, to learn, and the timeframe is open ended…just no reason not to add this to a large piece of land. A similar project is to find out the maximum able to be produced ecologically from the least area, so to calculate roughly the minimum area needed for subsistence (by experience and not from a book), which is also going to take a long time of trial and error to find a good balance, as well as for any garden to reach maturity.
I really emphasise the low maintenance side though, I enjoy all of this but know the effort a true farm takes to keep in order – there are many other pursuits to dedicate time to.
Actually, it is. A Honda Odyssey, one of the most reliable family cars on the market, regularly sells for under 5k in NC.
I bought a 2006 Honda Odyssey 3 years ago from a family upgrading. The van had 128k miles on it and cost 4200, or 800 cheaper than my max. The family had scrupulous maintenance records and everything had been well maintained.
These vans will easily go to 300k or more so I get another 10 years at least from this van for under 4200.
This is a deal anyone can find if you look for it.
I’m in California, and $5K will buy you a 12-15 year old econobox and/or a vehicle with 150,000+ miles on it. Neither category can be considered reliable.
A 150k car can still likely go another 150k. If you like new cars good for you, but it will cost you. It’s a myth that a 150k car isn’t reliable. They absolutely can be if they have been maintained.
I have only owned cars with over 120k miles on it and they have worked great for me. Been doing this for 23 years now and I’ve never had a maintenance bill for over 1k for any car TOTAL (except for oil changes) during that time. My longest owned car is a 2000 Camry that I paid 4700 for in 2006. IT’s still worth 2000, still drives well and has 300k miles on the odometer. Over the 15 years I’ve owned it I’ve spent much less than 1500 on maintenance on that car total except for oil changes. That’s 100 bucks a year on average. If you count the depreciation on that car I’ve been able to own that car including maintenance for about 20 bucks a month. When you factor in taxes on new cars vs old ones I’ve been able to own a car for free on the purchase price. All my cars are just like this. I own four.
I found several cars in CA just now that are under 5k (San Fran area) that will typically easily go another 100k or so without major mechanical issues.
It can be done.
Looking for ways to cut your fixed monthly bills in order to fund investments is smart behavior. If driving used cars lets you acquire rentals, that’s awesome.
I buy new cars because good used cars are nearly impossible to find here….for various reasons I could name….and because I drive a lot…although I have cut back since I stopped farming.
I have an Odyssey in my driveway that was “running when parked” if you need a parts car. 🙂
Yeah, one of my 4 used cars in my driveway was one of those “running until parked”
2000 Toyota Camry. I keep telling myself I’ll fix it…..but I never seem to find the time.
Just needs a new muffler. Maybe one day I’ll get to it, when I am not getting a rental ready to rent.
Not only do we need better batteries, etc we also need cars that don’t cost 40k and up. Or 20 year financing. Something ‘did give’ in CA as one town outlawed new gas stations and replacing pumps. In other words, you will drive electric by force. I really wish these bastards would leave us the hell alone.