Five reports are delayed already. A long delay will cause cancelled reports.
Five Delayed Reports
- Oct 1: Construction Spending
- Oct 2: Motor Vehicle Sales
- Oct 2: Jobless Claims
- Oct 2: Factory Orders
- Oct 3: Employment Situation (Nonfarm Payrolls Household and Establishment surveys)
The September jobs report (due Friday, October 3) should be easy to produce. The BLS workers likely had most of that report prepared with all of the data collected.
If the shutdown lasts through October 18, things get messy due to the way the BLS gathers jobs-related data.
Jobs Reference Period
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) the household survey’s reference period is the the 7-day period, Sunday through Saturday, that includes the 12th of the month. The household survey determines the unemployment rate.
The establishment (payroll) survey’s reference period is the pay period for an establishment that includes the 12th of the month. This is the nonfarm payroll report.
For the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), job openings have a reference period of the last business day of the month, whereas hires and separations cover the entire calendar month.
JOLTS will not be impacted because that data lags a month.
If the shutdown lasts through the 18th, the reference period (October 12-18) will be blown.
PPI Reference Period
For the Producer Price Index (PPI), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) gathers reference data on the Tuesday of the week containing the 13th of each month. The data is collected through a voluntary survey from thousands of businesses nationwide.
- Monthly collection: Prices are collected every month for over 100,000 items from more than 25,000 establishments.
- Data collection method: BLS field economists interview sampled businesses to identify specific products and services, and companies then report the prices for those items on a secure website or through other methods.
The PPI data collection for September is scheduled for Tuesday, October 14.
The BLS could decide to use a different reference date much easier than for jobs data.
CPI Is Continuous
For the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), the data gathering period is continuous throughout the entire reference month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects prices for goods and services over the course of the whole month, not on a single specific date.
Rent prices are an exception and are collected from one of six different panels of housing units every six months.
Fed Not Impacted
The Fed is funded differently and its reports will not be impacted.
Fed reports include Industrial Production, Treasury sales reports, the Beige Book, regional Fed reports, and the Fed’s balance sheet.
Cancelled Reports History
The BLS has cancelled reports—not just delayed them—during government shutdowns, though such cases are rare and typically tied to prolonged funding lapses that halt data collection.
The most notable example is the 2013 shutdown, when BLS suspended operations entirely from October 1 to October 16.
The partial shutdown 2018–2019 shutdown (December 22, 2018–January 25, 2019) was 35 days and the longest in history.
It covered only the January 2019 reference period (January 6–12) for the household survey, not two.
The December 2018 reference period (December 9–15) was safely outside the shutdown, and the February 2019 period (February 10–16) came after it ended.
No outright cancellation happened because the shutdown didn’t fully derail the data collection pipeline for that single reference period. However, they flagged the report with caveats about quality, as response rates dipped and federal worker classifications got messy.
Cancellation 2025 Discussion
The BLS’s roughly 2,000 employees are almost entirely furloughed, leaving only the acting commissioner to handle bare-minimum “essential” tasks like emergency notifications.
Data collection for the household survey (those critical phone and field interviews) grinds to zero during the reference week, and with no staff to chase responses or process scraps, we’d be staring at irreparable gaps.
I doubt the establishment survey fares any better.
Note: The above history and cancellation discussion was compiled with a Nice Chat with Grok.
Key Question
Here’s the key question: How Quickly Will Republicans Cave on Democrat’s Government Shutdown Demands?
Democrats’ Strategy
If Democrats can hang on for the rest of the month, healthcare premium notices will be sent.
Consumers can start shopping for next year’s coverage on November 1. Some ACA participants have already started receiving notifications about next year’s premium increases.
About 24 million people are enrolled in ACA (Obamacare) coverage. Roughly that many people will not be happy with sticker shock.
Republican Senate Concerns
“Even though none of us were supportive of the ACA to begin with, we can’t walk away from the people that have had no place else to go to get their healthcare coverage,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R., S.D.).
Senate Majority Leader John Thune is already discussing compromise, but only after Democrats end the shutdown.
But at this point, Democrats have no reason to go along.
Related Posts
October 4, 2025: About 100,000 Government Workers Are Off the Payrolls as of October 1
Trump is shrinking government payrolls. And another big cut is coming.
October 2, 2025: Trump Targets Democrat’s Spending Priorities During Government Shutdown
Trump’s budget director, Russell Vought, has been waiting for this moment.
October 1, 2025: ADP Private Jobs Decline by 32,000 in September, Huge Negative Revisions
ADP revised August from +54,000 to -3,000 making 2 straight months of declines.
If the GOP agreed to release the Epstein files this never would have happened.
Trump just wants the shutdown to gut government and take actions intentionally to hurt blue states and voters.
Government reports are irrelevant. Employees know when the workload is slowing down. Buyout offers confirm a slowdown. Companies finally issue layoff warnings 60-90 days in advance. Job postings and responses provide immediate feedback to someone who has been laid off about the state of the job market. People only need to look at their bills to know what inflation is. Economic reports only serve to perpetuate the myth the Federal Reserve and government can do anything at all. Ronald Reagan said it best, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
I’m going to go out on a limb here.
I speculate that any reports that could have a negative impression regarding the current administration might be cancelled.
But that’s just me, it’s a WAG.
Standing on the limb with you!
Haha how many times have the republicans said vote for this then well talk about what you want.
Thanks for this compilation of reports, Mish, including the details. With fewer data points to move the markets, I’m guessing the 5 and 10 year Treasury yields will show traders’ underlying sentiment about where the economy and inflation are going. Of course, those two may diverge.
Sept reports are ancient history. According to Wolf federal gov are already down 200K. Chainsaw OMB Russ: that is not good enough. All gov branches should cut SPENDING by 20%, from essential and nonessential programs, including the DoW. Cutting headcount doesn’t matter. States gov will follow suit, reversing Biden’s crime family. Within a few years, before the Nov 2028, gov debt will drop to the $25T/$30T range. Employment in the private sector will rise. They will takeover.
Government debt dropping? Never. Especially as Trump seems poised to start and expand military boondoggles in Venezuela, Iran, Ukraine and Asia. Re-taking Bagram? WTF? Vance seems to have gone full neocon. You never want to go full neocon, but he sees who the gatekeepers of the presidency are.
DoW is buying Ukraine drones, instead of stealth bombers for billions.
After a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas the US might consolidate its
forces in the ME. Hegseth will reduce useless military programs run by pentagon generals. He is not against women: women are doing wonderful jobs in command centers, on radars, subs, flying drones, cyber and in air defense. They are better than men.
Taking out Venezuelan speed boats loaded down with drugs prior to their arrival on US shores is a great use of our military and is NOT starting a war with Madero.
As for Iran, bombing their nuclear complexes didn’t start a war. We’re not at war with Iran, but we’ll know in the coming days if Israel’s war with Hamas has a real chance to wrap up. If Israel gets their hostages back, then that’s an enormous accomplishment & is a big shift in the right direction to ending the current Israeli conflict with Hamas.
The US isn’t at war with Ukraine. We are providing them arms nowadays that Europe is mostly paying for which is exactly the approach Biden should have taken once he invited Putin to invade.
What Asian military boondoggle is Trump currently engaged in?
“ Taking out Venezuelan speed boats loaded down with drugs prior to their arrival on US shores is a great use of our military and is NOT starting a war with Madero.”
They may indeed have been carrying cocaine, but I cannot find any proof that they were.
How about you provide me with that proof. It would be nice to see you provide a link with proof for your statement.
Thanks in advance.
Unlike you, I’m not skeptical of everything the Federal government does, especially the military. If Biden had done the exact same thing, I would have cheered him on all the same.
But that’s the thing, Brandon didn’t do it nor would have Comrade Kamala. So all of the Trump haters can complain about EVERYTHING Trump does, but I’m mostly pleased with what he’s doing.
Thank you for your attention to this matter. MAGA!
Dude…your man is a communist. I swear to god you trump supporters are seriously dumb.
The U.S. is gearing up for war with China – probably using a stupid proxy like the Philippines. It’s not just Trump. He’s apparently on board with all the various regime changes operation attempts through the world. Trump says he wants Bagram back. Various organic (NOT) youth revolutions against “corruption” have spontaneously (NOT) erupted in Georgia, Bangladesh, Nepal, the Philippines and Madagascar. The U.S. is building a big naval port in Bangladesh. We’re encircling our rivals and stirring up trouble. Same as it ever was.
Stop drinking so much Kool-aid. Lot’s of conspiracies going on in your head.
FYI – China is building up naval bases almost everywhere. And of course we’re gearing up for a war with China. They have said that it’s only a matter of time before they go in.
Personally, I’d be fine with us taking back Bagram. We should have never given it up.
Trump loves China. I think you take him for his word and not his actions.
Government debt dropping?
Hahahahaha!
This whole shutdown business makes it look like we live in a banana republic. That said, just as “essential” military operations continue, “essential” data collections and publications should also continue during a shutdown. For example, the monthly CPI is certainly essential, including for indexing TIPS and income tax brackets, as these indexations are mandated by law. I am no lawyer, but I would think it’s possible to argue that stopping the publication of monthly CPI data for an extended period is simply illegal.
Nice try but that isn’t how it works. Besides, very few here believe those reports anyway. So they shouldn’t be too upset if they are cancelled.
Thanks. I know that most people on this site would be happy if we would never ever gain see a monthly CPI report. On the bright side, people durint the Stone Age also didn’t have monthly CPI reports, and they survived.
Well, hell, let’s hope the Dems come to their senses & stop with the theatrics.
We all know that if reports are cancelled, then two things will happen:
Corporations will be emboldened to cut more jobs due to AI flying under the radar as they intend & the Fed will have more reasons to cut rates as “officially” unconfirmed inflation continues to rise.
My homeowner’s insurance is going up 30% this year & is up ~85% in four years. Thank goodness the BLS doesn’t properly capture that real cost of owning a home. We wouldn’t want CPI to accurately reflect real life.
your man crush is safe from the Epstein files, for now…
As I’ve said many times here, I could care less about the Epstein files. They’re a distraction to divide conservatives.
“I don’t care if our government is run by pedophiles!!” is the most refreshing mask off take for a guy who I know damn well is a gross 50+ white guy.
Homeowner’s insurance and property taxes are the two key reasons the CPI and PCE are piss poor measures of inflation. So we are in huge agreement on this.
Yes, my homeowner’s insurance premiums have increased by 100% over the last three years. I am currently in the process of demanding an explanation from both my carrier and agency principal.
Pretty sure the explanation is that you keep paying them.
The explanation is 99% of voters keep voting for the massive deficit spending debt increasing Republicans and Democrats. Prices cant be stable when that is happening. Thats the having your cake and eating it too. People have had repeated chances to vote for fiscal responsibility with the Libertarian choice but they didnt choose it. Theyll have the chance again in the next election but will they choose that or vote for more inflation yet again?
Well, fortunately, my property taxes appear to have peaked for now.
My home insurer, Travelers, is simply trying to close the gap between them & the other major insurers for having lower premiums. They’re doing this by jacking up what they “say” my dwelling replacement cost is. For the previous three years, which included the big 9% inflation of June 2022, my cost to replace went up $3-5K a year. Now all of a sudden, it shot up $38K.
There needs to be some sort of national homeowner’s insurance regulation. A great place to start would be some sort of oversight of roof replacements. This is an area where the insurers have no interest in trying to control costs. They’re fine with paying out inflated roof replacement costs, so as to justify huge premium increases.
If we’re lucky enough to make it through the hurricane season without a single storm hitting the US, we should all demand a premium reduction. I can only imagine what profits for Allstate & any other insurer in Florida will be over the next 12 months.
Insurance of all types is quickly becoming a SCAM!
“ There needs to be some sort of national homeowner’s insurance regulation.”
What? The guy that wants the government shut down for as long as possible, now wants MORE government?
Yep! I would gladly vote for a candidate who would force reasonable, transparent &U effective regulation on home & car insurance.
Well, I wouldn’t vote for Mamdani, but fortunately I don’t live in NYC.
I know. It’s an incredible Jux position, isn’t it?
They are so confused. All the time.
“ Well, hell, let’s hope the Dems come to their senses & stop with the theatrics.”
Why do you hope that? You should be cheering them on. After all, you repeatedly state that you want the government to shut down for as long as possible.
You should be enjoying it!
I guess you didn’t get the sarcasm. BTW, the government has shutdown, ICYMI.
Lol! I understand the cult cocaine that you snort. And all the GOP ass kissing you do.
And I will keep repeating how you WANT this government shut down to last for as long as possible.
So I am expecting some cheering on your behalf for whoever is keeping the government shut down.
Maybe a woohoo for Schumer? Thanks for shutting the government down! Keep it going!
I am certainly cheering for Trump to put out more AI memes. If that’s your definition of ass kissing, then I’m fine with it.
Never tried cocaine. I don’t drink, so I’m kind of boring.
Woohoo Schumer! Good call!
Climate change along with inflation. Throw some tariff cost in there along with some immigration affecting labor cost.
There you have it.