Advance Wholesale Inventories

Wholesale inventories for November, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $610.2 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from October 2017, and were up 3.8 percent (±0.7 percent) from November 2016. The September 2017 to October 2017 percentage change was revised from down 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to down 0.4 percent (±0.4 percent).

Advance Retail Inventories

Retail inventories for November, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $619.1 billion, up 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)* from October 2017, and were up 1.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from November 2016. The September 2017 to October 2017 percentage change was unrevised at virtually unchanged (±0.2 percent).

Impact on GDP Model Estimates

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GDPNow does not offer an update today so that may be an indication it does not expect much to happen from these reports.

On the surface this appears to be a good report, but it all depends on what the models thought would happen. The wholesale side was certainly better than retail.

If the models expected 0.35% on average for both inventory reports, the estimates will not change. If the models anticipated 0.25% to 0.35% on average, the estimates will go tick up by 0.10 to 0.20 percentage points or so. If the models forecast declines, these reports may add quite a bit more.

My guess is something like a gain of 0.10 to 0.20 percentage points or so.

MIke "Mish" Shedlock

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