by Mish

Will Donald Trump stay the course and remain in the White House for a full four-year term?

Yes, if you ask the man himself, but bettors are not so sure. In fact, the probability of President Trump leaving office via an impeachment or resignation before he finishes his first term has doubled over the past three months, according to British bookie Ladbrokes.

Immediately after his election win in November, the odds of Trump staying in the Oval Office for four years were 3/1, indicating a 25% chance he’d leave early. Now a little more than three weeks into his tenure, the odds have been slashed to 11/10, putting a 47% chance that he’ll resign or be impeached.

“It’s all about supply and demand and punters have been backing it and we’ve forced to cut the odds accordingly,” Ladbrokes spokesperson Jessica Bridge said.

“As every day goes by, there’s a new Donald Trump controversy and punters are putting two and two together and backing him to leave,” she said.

Over at Paddy Power, the odds of the president resigning stand at 15/8, while the probability of an impeachment in 2017 stand at 4/1. At William Hill, odds point to a 2/1 chance of an impeachment in Trump’s first term.

What a hoot.

Are these bettors listening to Michael Moore?

Who does this jackass think he is, issuing demands on the president?

His Tweets appear far beyond delusional.

I offer another possibility: Moore attempts (rather poorly) to counter Trump’s over-the-top demands such as “Mexico will pay for the wall” with far more ridiculous demands of his own.

To make a similar point, I do not believe for one second that Moore actually thought Trump would win the election, despite him saying that. Rather, I believe it was Moore’s play to get out the anti-Trump vote.

On that score we will never know. But right now, my assessment is Moore lost his mind in the wake of a Trump victory (assuming he had a mind to lose before then).

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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