Six Point Compelling Picture In Chronological Order
- Theresa May failed to deliver Brexit.
- Support for the Tory Party collapsed.
- Support for the Brexit Party soared.
- Support for the Labour party collapsed as well
- Things reversed for the Tories the moment it became apparent Boris Johnson would be the next Prime Minister.
- Support for Labour, even after a recent surge languishes well below where it was a year ago.
You can like the trends or not, but there is no denying what the chart shows.
Meanwhile, I keep hearing ad nauseum that Labour is ahead of where it was when Theresa May called for elections in 2017.
Let's investigate that notion.
Polling Trends in 2017
We are Here
Please compare the above chart with the lead chart.
Spot any differences?
For starters, Corbyn is not ahead af 2017. It seems to be a tie with Corbyn fading fast.
This is Not 2017
- This is 2019, not 2017.
- The trends before and since the election was called are not remotely comparable.
- Theresa May was never very popular or likeable.
- Corbyn was in a honeymoon period.
- Today, Corbyn is the most unpopular opposition leader in UK history.
Corbyn is Amazingly Unpopular
Unless there is some sort of debate rally, Corbyn will be behind in 3 days, way behind in a week, and undeniably and impossibly behind in two weeks with the election the following week.
That is what the trends say. There is no point in denying the obvious.
Let's discuss why this is.
Corbyn's Message Does Not Resonate
Corbyn's message "Negotiate a deal then hold a referendum on it" does not resonate.
And why should it?
People, even Remainers are sick of this. Corbyn pledged to honor the referendum and didn't.
He wants another one. And after a bit he will support a referendum for Scotland too. He refused to rule it out.
And if he needs SNP support to break a deadlock in the case of a hung election, is there any doubt he won't grant one immediately?
A question came up in the debate: Is the union more important than Brexit?
Johnson answered yes. Corbyn didn't. He couldn't because he supports a Scotland referendum, not now, but later.
Of course, later means now if there is a hung election. For all this talk of Johnson busting up the union, please take a look at Corbyn.
I saw no media commentary on this at all. I wonder what the fence sitters think.
UK Election Debate: Johnson Wins by Not Losing
Yesterday, I commented UK Election Debate: Johnson Wins by Not Losing
A YouGov poll gave Johnson a small win. Look, a 51-49 "victory" is a tie in this kind of thing.
The media commentary on the outcome was quite amazing.
The Guardian and others proclaimed Corbyn the winner, despite the immediate polls, because Corbyn did better than expected and allegedly landed more blows.
I watched the entire debate. For the most part it was boring. And boring is precisely what Johnson wanted.
If anything, Johnson went well out of his way to be purposely boring!
Let that sink in.
Corbyn did not need boring, he needed a blowout and failed to deliver. If you score the debate by what was needed, Corbyn lost badly.
Nonetheless, straight up, I stick with my assessment: It was a tie. Spin that however you want because I just did.
Referendum on Corbyn
Despite Johnson's insistence on making this a referendum on Brexit, what's really happening is the campaign has morphed into a referendum on Corbyn himself.
That's a pretty amazing poll.
A whopping 51.9% of men and 42.0% of women believe johnson would make the best Prime Minister!
Also note that Jo Swinson tops Jeremy Corbyn among women and age groups 55-64 and 65-74.
Not even 18-24 year-olds prefer Corbyn. The only demographic in which Corbyn leads is 25-34 year-olds.
For further discussion of the above chart, please see Fear of Corbyn Outweighs Fear of Brexit.
Expect More Boringness
At this juncture, Johnson simply wants to avoid any major gaffes.
Expect more "Let's get Brexit Done" boringness.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock