by Mish

This is despite the fact the numbers have changed significantly in the past week.

I keep watching and watching and watching for further analysis from “Number Cruncher” on Brexit, in light of recent Brexit polls. However, paint dries weeks faster than updates.

Earlier today I reported Brexit Battle “Leave” Surges to 3 Point Lead.

That poll was by Observer/Opinium.

That is on the heels of May 31 Guardian surveys (both online and telephone) that showsBrexit in Lead For 1st Time.

At that time I asked “Did Cameron’s Brexit Fearmongering and Lies Backfire?”

Meanwhile, yet another Poll is in. This one, by YouGov for ITV, shows a four point lead for leave.

‘Leave’ Camp Leads in Brexit Battle as Major Turns Fire on Boris

Bloomberg reports ‘Leave’ Camp Leads in Brexit Battle as Major Turns Fire on Boris.

Campaigners to get Britain out of the European Union have moved into the lead, according to a YouGov poll that increases the pressure on Prime Minister David Cameron with less than three weeks until the referendum.
The poll for ITV’s Good Morning Britain program on Monday puts ‘Leave’ voters at 45 percent, and ‘Remain’ at 41 percent, with 11 percent undecided, according to an e-mailed statement. Similar surveys in May and April showed the ‘Remain’ camp leading. The poll comes on the back of others showing Brexit campaigners narrowing the gap or even leapfrogging ‘Remain’ in the debate to sway voters ahead of the June 23 vote.

The latest “Number Cruncher” analysis I can find is from May 31, Is Britain heading for Brexit? Latest polls by Matt Singh.

That’s quite pathetic for a site that is allegedly supposed to crunch political numbers.

I suggest Brexit is now a tossup.

Will Singh bury his head in the sand like Nate Silver did in the US? (SeeMore Nate Silver Mathematical Nonsense, This Time on Hillary’s Odds)

We will find out soon. One cannot stay silent forever (and survive).

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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