Strong Recession Signal

Today, the 1-year T-Bill rate inverted with higher duration notes up to and including the 7-year note. I count 6 inversions, 4 of them with the 1-Yr bill.

A 1-year T-Bill inversion with the 10-year note is only 8.5 basis points away.

This is the strongest recession signal yet.

Debt Watch

Despite the flattening and now inverting yield curve, note that the spread between the 10-year and 7-year bond actually rose over the course of 2018.

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The spread between the 30-year long bond and the 10-year note is nearly what it was a year ago.

I believe this is a strong bond market signal that the end of the bond bull market approaches. It's possible it's already over. But I do expect one more strong push lower in yields as recession hits in 2019.

We have enormous deficits as far as the eye can see from a starting point of $21 trillion in debt.

Got Gold?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Yield Curve Inverted Out to Seven Years

Portions of the yield curve are once again inverted all the way out to 7 years.

Yield Curve Inverts in 28 Places: Recession Warning Resumes

After a brief respite, the yield curve is again flashing a bright recession signal. The curve is inverted in 28 places.

Near Full Inversion: 10-Year Note Inverts With 1-Month T-Bill

The yield curve nears full inversion. Every duration higher than 1-month other than the 30-year long bond is inverted.

Recession Signal Getting Louder: 5-Year Yield Inverts With 3-Month Yield

The yield curve is inverted in 11 different spots. The latest is 5-year to 3-month inversion.

Yield Curve is Inverted for Nearly 25 Years

Using the Fed Funds Rate as the baseline overnight duration, the yield curve is inverted for nearly 25 years.

Recession Without an Inverted Yield Curve? Sure, Why Not?

Japan had six consecutive recessions without an inverted yield curve. There is no reason it can't happen here.

Why the Yield Curve Inverts in One Simple Picture

The yield curve inverts when the Fed keeps hiking in the face of a slowdown.

Yield Curve Will Invert From the Inside Out

How does the yield curve invert? Jim Bianco at Bianco Research says "Inside Out"

Canadian and Australian Yield Curves Invert- Clear Recession Signals

Those looking for clear recession signals in Canada and Australia have them. Portions of the Canadian and Australian yield curves are now inverted. Canada has been in a state of inversion for at least four weeks.