I created a spreadsheet that plots the yield curve from entered values.
The chart is to scale, starting with the Fed Funds Rate (F) then the 3-month bill (3), six month bill (6), then every three months with values between dates extrapolated uniformly.
Click on the charts for a sharper image.
Yield Curve 2019-01-07
Click on the chart to expand.
That's the curve at the moment. On January 3, portions of the curve inverted with the Fed Funds Rate.
Yield Curve 2019-01-03
On January 3, the effective Fed Funds rate was 2.40%. The yields between 2 years and 6 years inverted with the Fed Funds Rate.
Fed Funds Rate Inversions January 3
- FF Rate: 2.40%
- 2-year: 2.379%
- 3-Year: 2.340%
- 5-Year: 2.356%
- 6-Year: 2.394% extrapolated
On January 4, Powell promised patience. I responded: So What? It Doesn't Matter
Following Powell's speech, inversions with the Fed Funds Rate ended.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock