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I created a spreadsheet that plots the yield curve from entered values.

The chart is to scale, starting with the Fed Funds Rate (F) then the 3-month bill (3), six month bill (6), then every three months with values between dates extrapolated uniformly.

Click on the charts for a sharper image.

Yield Curve 2019-01-07

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Click on the chart to expand.

That's the curve at the moment. On January 3, portions of the curve inverted with the Fed Funds Rate.

Yield Curve 2019-01-03

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On January 3, the effective Fed Funds rate was 2.40%. The yields between 2 years and 6 years inverted with the Fed Funds Rate.

Fed Funds Rate Inversions January 3

  • FF Rate: 2.40%
  • 2-year: 2.379%
  • 3-Year: 2.340%
  • 5-Year: 2.356%
  • 6-Year: 2.394% extrapolated

On January 4, Powell promised patience. I responded: So What? It Doesn't Matter

Following Powell's speech, inversions with the Fed Funds Rate ended.

Questions Linger

  1. Is the Bond Bull Market Over?
  2. What are the odds of recession? Rosenberg says History On Our Side.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock