I created a spreadsheet that plots the yield curve from entered values.

The chart is to scale, starting with the Fed Funds Rate (F) then the 3-month bill (3), six month bill (6), then every three months with values between dates extrapolated uniformly.

Click on the charts for a sharper image.

Yield Curve 2019-01-07

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Click on the chart to expand.

That's the curve at the moment. On January 3, portions of the curve inverted with the Fed Funds Rate.

Yield Curve 2019-01-03


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On January 3, the effective Fed Funds rate was 2.40%. The yields between 2 years and 6 years inverted with the Fed Funds Rate.

Fed Funds Rate Inversions January 3

  • FF Rate: 2.40%
  • 2-year: 2.379%
  • 3-Year: 2.340%
  • 5-Year: 2.356%
  • 6-Year: 2.394% extrapolated

On January 4, Powell promised patience. I responded: So What? It Doesn't Matter

Following Powell's speech, inversions with the Fed Funds Rate ended.

Questions Linger

  1. Is the Bond Bull Market Over?
  2. What are the odds of recession? Rosenberg says History On Our Side.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Fed Panic! 10-Year vs 3-Month Yield Curve Spread Un-Inverts

Over the past few weeks the 10-yr to 3-month inversion shank. That portion of the curve is no longer inverted. So what?

Yield Curve is Inverted for Nearly 25 Years

Using the Fed Funds Rate as the baseline overnight duration, the yield curve is inverted for nearly 25 years.

Yield Curve Will Invert From the Inside Out

How does the yield curve invert? Jim Bianco at Bianco Research says "Inside Out"

Yield Curve Inverted Out to Seven Years

Portions of the yield curve are once again inverted all the way out to 7 years.

Why the Yield Curve Inverts in One Simple Picture

The yield curve inverts when the Fed keeps hiking in the face of a slowdown.

What Spot in the Yield Curve is Likely to Invert First?

The yield curve has flattened considerably over the last year. Will it invert? Where? The following chart explains.

China's Yield Curve Inverts: Will the US Follow?

China's macro picture tumbled to its weakest since August 2016. Portions of the yuan yield curve inverted again as China attempts to rein in property bubbles and state-owned enterprise (SOE) excesses. The US yield curve hasn't inverted yet. What's in the cards?

Canadian and Australian Yield Curves Invert- Clear Recession Signals

Those looking for clear recession signals in Canada and Australia have them. Portions of the Canadian and Australian yield curves are now inverted. Canada has been in a state of inversion for at least four weeks.

Recession Signal Getting Louder: 5-Year Yield Inverts With 3-Month Yield

The yield curve is inverted in 11 different spots. The latest is 5-year to 3-month inversion.