With US treasury yields on a tear, one might think the curve is steepening. It is and it isn't. Pictures will explain.

30-Year Yield Minus 5-Year Yield

Image placeholder title

30-Year Yield Minus 2-Year Yield

Image placeholder title

30-Year Yield Minus 1-Year Yield

Image placeholder title

10-Year Yield Minus 5-Year Yield

Image placeholder title

10-Year Yield Minus 2-Year Yield

Image placeholder title

5-Year Yield Minus 2-Year Yield

Image placeholder title

5-Year Yield Minus 1-Year Yield

Image placeholder title

2-Year Yield Minus 1-Year Yield

Image placeholder title

Synopsis

  • The downtrend on 30-year spreads is still mostly intact. However, the 30-year vs 1-year spread (or shorter) is steepening.
  • Most other spreads have turned up but the spread differentials are mostly tiny.
  • Spread differentials are greatest at shorter maturities.

Yield Curve Flattening or Steepening?

Yes, both, depending on where you look.

More realistically, and on average, the yield curve started to steepen on January 2 or January 3.

"Bet Your Heinie" Treasury Bull is Over?

Not so fast. The treasury bull will not be over until it is certain the long end of the curve has bottomed. Despite proclamations by Bill Gross and others, it is far too early to make that call.

Bill Gross has incorrectly proclaimed the "end" several times. If another recession hits any time soon, I expect he will be wrong once again.

For further discussion, please see "You Bet Your Heinie" Bill Gross Needs a Fatter Crayon.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Flattening Yield Curve in One Picture

The flattening yield curve is a topic of much discussion. The lead chart shows various spreads it in one picture.

Debate over the Yield Curve: Is it Steepening or Flattening?

A recent Wall Street Journal story stated that “A flattening of the Treasury yield curve in 2017 is a worrying sign for investors banking on resurgent U.S. inflation and growth.”

Relentless Yield Curve Flattening

Most economists expect the Fed will hike at least twice more this year. If so, portions of the yield curve may invert.

Yield Curve Steepens but Recession Risks Haven't Faded

The yield curve has steepened considerably in the past month. Some think it means recession risk has diminished.

Yield Curve to Completely Flatten in 2018: But How?

The T. Rowe Price Group expects the yield curve to completely flatten in 2018. This is not a surprise as I have been commenting the same way for quite some time. The more important question is how? By yields converging up, down, or a mix?

Yield Curve Bear Steepener?

Minyanville Prof. Bennet Sedacca is writing about the Bear Steepener.

In Search of the Allegedly Steepening Yield Curve

There has been a lot of commentaries recently about the steepening yield curve. Let's investigate with pictures.

Yield Curve Steepens Dramatically: What's Going On?

US treasuries are seeing action we have not seen for a while: Strong sharp steepening of the yield curve.

Yield Curve Flattens Dramatically, Looking Quite Recessionary

Curve Watchers Anonymous has been watching the yield curve flatten for months on end.