Yield Curve Debate

A longer-term picture will put the steepening in perspective.

10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury Yield

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The yield curve has not inverted this time. But what if it doesn't. There is no universal law that says the yield curve will invert before a recession. Look at Japan for proof.

With so many eyes on the yield curve flattening, perhaps it doesn't.

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There has been a lot of commentaries recently about the steepening yield curve. Let's investigate with pictures.

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A recent Wall Street Journal story stated that “A flattening of the Treasury yield curve in 2017 is a worrying sign for investors banking on resurgent U.S. inflation and growth.”

Yield Curve Steepened Since January 3 but Portions Remain Inverted

On Jan 3, portions of the yield curve inverted with the Fed Funds rate. That's gone, but other inversions remain.

What Spot in the Yield Curve is Likely to Invert First?

The yield curve has flattened considerably over the last year. Will it invert? Where? The following chart explains.

Treasury Yields Surge, Curve Steepens, 30-Yr Yield Highest Since 2012: 6 Reasons

Treasury yields blasted higher today and the curve steepened as well. Let's investigate why.

Recession Without an Inverted Yield Curve? Sure, Why Not?

Japan had six consecutive recessions without an inverted yield curve. There is no reason it can't happen here.