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Absentee Voters Will Decide NYC Mayoral Winner, Only 2 Candidates Remain

The New York City mayoral race is down to two candidates, Eric Adams and Kathryn Garcia.
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NYC Mayoral Race After Round 11

Results from NYC Board of Elections

After Round 9, it was Adams 35.0%, Wiley 26.2%, Garcia 23.8%, and Yang 14.9%.

After Round 10, Adams had 40.9%, Wiley 29.3%, and Garcia 29.8%.

What Happened to Wiley in Round 10?

In the late stages of the campaign, Yang and Garcia formed an alliance. Both candidates encouraged their supporters to back the other for second place. 

Yang may or may not be decisive in the final outcome, but he did knock out Wiley. 

That's a good thing. Wiley is an extreme Progressive who sought to defund the police. 

Adams in the Lead

Although Adams is in the lead, and deservedly so, this election is not over.

About 800,000 votes have been cast but there are about 125,000 absentee votes remain as of Monday. 

Adams has 368,898 votes to 352,999 for Garcia at the end of round 11. Adams is ahead by only 15,899 votes!

Flawed Process?

Given 120,000+ votes remaining, Wiley could theoretically have won, and by more than a little. Moreover, it easily could have been Wiley vs Garcia. 

There will be more than a bit of soul searching no matter who wins. Clearly it's best to vote in person for maximum impact.

Who's Favored Now?

Crain's New York Business reports Wiley was knocked and assesses the absentee ballots.

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The outstanding absentee ballots, which won’t be counted until July 6, are likely to favor Adams: 44% came from state Assembly districts where he led in the early and election-day voting, compared to 32% from Garcia-led districts and 14% where Wiley leads.

Adams has a substantial but not unsurmountable lead, but Garcia and Wiley have a slim shot,” said Democratic political consultant George Arzt.

Wiley, a former counsel to term-limited Mayor Bill de Blasio, received national support from progressive figures eager for a win at the ballot box. But she took criticism for paying for a private security force in her neighborhood, while calling for police budget cuts.

How can Wiley have any shot at all if she is knocked out? This reporting is more than a bit confusing. 

New York Times Mayoral Update

The release of Ms. Wiley’s supporters heavily benefited Ms. Garcia in the final tally; either candidate would be New York’s first female mayor, and Ms. Wiley would be the city’s first Black female mayor.

Half of Ms. Wiley’s votes went to Ms. Garcia, 19 percent went to Mr. Adams, and the remainder was not allocated to either.

Ms. Wiley ran well to the left of Ms. Garcia on a number of vital policy matters, including around policing and on some education questions. But Mr. Adams, a former police captain and a relative moderate on several key issues, is a non-starter for many deeply progressive voters who may have preferred Ms. Garcia and her technocratic focus on competence.

The NYT estimates "nearly 125,000 absentee ballots still to be counted."

Who's Ahead Take II

Nate Silver on NYC Mayoral Race

I will go with Crain's over Nate Silver but Predict-It odds just went the other way. I just bet the max on Adams, about $850, at $0.42.   

More Confusion


I still do not have a handle on this

Reporting is screwy. Vox has Wiley in it others like Crain’s and the election board say eliminated.

NY Times reassigned Wiley’s votes.

On top of it all NYC Election Board admits is has a discrepancy of over 140,000 Votes.

And just now the Election Board removed the link to round 11 voting. It gets a 404 not found error. Actually links to all the rounds are down.

Something Very Wrong