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Adams Has a Big Lead in NYC Mayoral Election But We May Not Know Who Won for Weeks

With about 90% of the vote in, Eric Adams has 31% of the vote to Maya Wiley at 21.74%, Kathryn Garcia at 20.30%, and Andrew Yang at 11.64%.
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Ranked Voting Decision Coming Up

Ranked Voting Coming Up

There were 13 candidates in the New York City Democratic primary. The top 4 candidates had 84.68% of the vote.

These totals are as of 2:00 AM Eastern.

No candidate had a majority and that triggers the city's new Ranked Vote Procedure.

Under the system, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. The ousted candidate’s votes get redistributed to the voters’ second choices. That continues until there is a winner.

Board of Elections officials said they won’t declare an official winner in the race until all the rounds of ranked-choice voting have been completed and all absentee ballots have been counted. The final results may not come until the week of July 12, they said.

Who's Who?

I discussed Who's Who on June 12 in Who's Who and Who's Leading in the 13 Candidate NYC Mayoral Race

Eric Adams

  • Adams Platform: The Brooklyn borough president and a former New York Police Department officer, 60 years old, has focused on public safety,
  • Endorsements: Mr. Adams has multiple labor endorsements, including 32BJ SEIU, the Hotel Trades Council, District Council 37, Unite Here! Local 100 and the Amalgamated Transit Union. He also has the support of Queens Borough President Donovan Richards, former New York state Comptroller Carl McCall and Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr., all Democrats.

Maya Wiley

  • Wiley Platform: Wiley, a civil-rights lawyer and former counsel to Mr. de Blasio, is one of the most progressive candidates in the race. She has called for defunding the NYPD by moving $1 billion from the department’s budget to community resources.
  • Endorsements: 1199 SEIU; The Working Families Party; Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.); Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y.); Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D., N.Y) and Public Advocate Jumaane Williams (D.)

Kathryn Garcia

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  • Garcia Platform: Free child care for families making less than $70,000 a year and wants to streamline the permitting process to open up a small business or restaurant to just one permit. On issues of crime and safety, she has called for an increased reward for the city’s gun buyback program.
  • Endorsements: Uniformed Sanitationmen’s Association; Teamsters Local 831; SEIU Local 246 Auto Mechanics Union; Teamsters 813; The Sanitation Officers Association SEIU Local 444; Uniformed Sanitation Chiefs Association; state Assemblywoman Nily Rozic (D., Queens;) state Assemblyman Danny O’Donnell (D., Manhattan); and state Sen. Liz Krueger (D., Manhattan).

Likely Winner

Most likely Adams will win, but it will be one of those three. Wiley or Garcia could win if those eliminated have a huge preference for someone other than Adams. 

If second choices are split three ways, Adams should win easily. 

Progressive Foolishness

Wiley, backed by AOC, preaches true Progressive foolishness and seeks to defund the police. Nonetheless, she is in second place. Wow.

Outside the top 4, there is only 15.32% of the vote to split. I suspect she will get a big chunk of this bottom 9 candidate rehash as there are 8 candidates who want to defund the police!

Does Yang Hold the Key?

Yang has close to 12% of the voted and I doubt that favors Wiley.

But even if Adams were to get 100% of Yang's second place votes, we probably still would not know who won after his votes were parsed.

For example, assume Adams gets a third of the bottom 9 and all of Yang's 11%, Adams still falls way short.

Looking ahead further,those backing Wiley (seeking to defund police) might instead opt en masse for Garcia. That possibility is Garcia's best shot, assuming Wiley goes first.

Conversely, if Garcia goes before Wiley, I suspect Adams benefits more. Whoever eventually comes in third will likely decide this election.