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Adams' Lead Shrinks, But What Would it Take for Garcia to Win?

The NYC election board released revised vote totals this afternoon. Let's analyze the new totals.
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NYC Preliminary Election Results Round 9

Yesterday the New York City Board of Elections released preliminary results through Round 11.

It removed results of all rounds on news of the "Most Botched Election Ever", Accidentally Counting 135,000 Test Votes.

This is what it looked like yesterday in my snip capture.

NYC Mayoral Race After Round 11

Today, the Board of Elections released totals through Round 9

Key Points

  1. No one is eliminated. It would behoove the elections board to emphasize that point but they don't.
  2. The number of inactive ballots shrank to 117,327. That is due to the counting of about 135,000 test ballots. 
  3. Wiley is still in this race but Yang is indeed out. There are not enough absentee ballots for Yang to win even if he received 100% of the remaining vote.
  4. Adams lead over Garcia shrank from to 368898-352990 to 358521-343766 (15,908 to 14,755).
  5. It seems ridiculous for the board to show Wiley as eliminated when she isn't. For starters, people want to see the relative distance between Garcia and Wiley.
  6. Second, the above point could be critical. It is far less likely that those backing extreme Left Wiley (who wants to defund police) would prefer Adams (a former police captain) over Garcia
  7. If the race comes down to Adams vs Wiley, that improves the chances of Adams compared to Adams vs Garcia.
  8. As it stands, assuming it the totals are accurate (but the board may have #2 wrong or even #1 and #2 wrong), Garcia needs to pick up 14,755 out of approximately 123,343 (?) absentee ballots per Station Pix11 as of June 26.

The Board of Elections took down the link to the number of absentee ballots. I see various numbers on Twitter as high as 125,000 but will assume 123,343 is as good a guess as any.

Where Are the Absentee Votes?

I keep reading on Twitter this heavily favors Garcia, but like yesterday, I am unconvinced of anything. 

Please recall the alliance between Yang and Garcia in which Yang and Garcia each recommended the other as a second choice.

That alliance formed late. It clearly influenced in person voting but may not apply at all to absentee voting. And if not, perhaps it's Wiley who benefits.  In turn, that could benefit Adams greatly. 

Also, in what is a 3-way, it's hard to pick up 15,000 votes. It's even harder for Garcia to pick up enough votes to pass Wiley for reasons outlined below.

Starting Point

Let's use Round 1,  Round 7, and Round 8 for starting points.

  • In Round 1, Adams got 31.8%, Wiley 22.2%, Garcia 19.3%, Yang got 11.7% and the bottom 9 got 14.8%. 
  • In Round 7, Adams had 35.5%, Wiley 26.8%, Garcia 23.8%, Yang 13.9%
  • In Round 8, Adams had 40.9%, Garcia 29.6%, Wiley 29.5%

It is very unclear if round 7 or round 8 should be the model. And that could be key. 

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Garcia passed Wiley but that is based on a Yang-Garcia alliance that may not hold in absentee voting.

Round 8 Results 

Round 8 Results

Election Math Assuming Round 8 is the Model

  • Assume Round 8 is the proper model.
  • Give Adams 40% of the Absentee Vote and Garcia 60%.
  • Adams = 358,521 + 0.40 * 123,343 =  407,858
  • Garcia = 343,766 + 0.60 * 123,343 = 417,772

Garcia would win in that setup. But we do not know if those percentages hold or even if Round 8 is the correct model. Also, is the number of absentee votes correct? 

Round 7 could easily be the correct model as Wiley had a 3 percentage point lead over Garcia.

Garcia voters are far more likely to have Adams as a second choice than Wiley voters.

Round 7 Results

Round 7 Results

Election Math Assuming Round 7 is the Model

  • Assume Round 7 is the proper model (with a bit extra for Garcia and less for Adams and Wiley
  • Give Adams 34% of the Absentee Vote, Garcia 29%, Wiley 25%, Yang 12% 
  • Adams = 283,142 + 0.34 * 123,343 = 325,079
  • Garcia = 190,106 + 0.29 * 123,343 = 225,4875
  • Wiley = 213,857 + 0.25 * 123,343 = 244,692

Even boosting Garcia by 4 percentage points over Wiley while reducing Adams by 1.5 percentage points, Garcia still falls short. She remains heavily dependent on the alliance with Yang. 

That's possible, but far from clear. Assign percentages however you like, but Round 7 is the correct starting point. 

Garcia has huge ground to make up on Wiley all the way from round 1 through round 7. It was only the elimination of Yang that propelled Garcia. 

Yang is mathematically eliminated, but his votes were reapplied prematurely and Garcia heavily benefitted from Yang in election day voting. That could happen again, but it is far too premature to assume so. 

Those rooting for Adams should be rooting for Wiley for reasons stated above.

 Depending on where the Absentee votes are from, Adams over Wiley may be the smart money.

Mish

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