Kiss Bernie Goodbye
The only remaining question is “When does he drop out?”
I suspect Bernie will throw in the towel tomorrow night or Wednesday. If not, then give it another 8 days. A look at upcoming primaries and pledged delegates will explain why.
Pledged Delegates
California and Colorado are still counting but even if you give all the remaining Super Tuesday delegates to Sanders he is hopelessly behind.
Also you can put Bloomberg’s 61, Buttigieg’s 26, and Klobuchar’s 7 in Bidens column. Technically those are free delegates, but conventions says they are supposed to vote for another candidate if endorsed. All three endorsed Biden. Warren has not yet endorsed Sanders, and I do not believe she ever will. He will drop out soon enough.
Super Tuesday Projection
My Super Tuesday Projection was Biden 696, Sanders 633, Bloomberg 66, and Warren 70.
That looks reasonably close but add in endorsements and I projected Biden 795 and Sanders 633.
Again, that will be close, and the math looks like this.
Biden = 795 / 1499 = 53.0%
March 10 Democratic Primaries
I expect Biden will win 67% of those delegates. That’s another 234 delegates in his camp which would put him at roughly 795 + 234 = 1029 delegates.
Perhaps Sanders stays in for one more week.
March 17 Democratic Primaries
Give Biden about 67% of those delegates. That’s another 387 delegates in his camp which would put him at roughly 1029 + 387 = 1416 delegates.
Assuming Sanders makes it that far, he will then be forced to concede it’s totally hopeless.
Honest Loser
Bernie is a socialist, but he is the most honest of the bunch.
He is also the only genuine anti-war candidate, not counting Tulsi Gabbard.
My Expectation
Bernie will drop out on Wednesday March 11 “for the good of the party and the good of the nation” to beat Trump.
If not then, add another week, March 18.
Mike “Mish Shedlock
Honesty has it’s limits. I never doubted Lenin’s honesty; I’ve always believed he really believed, too. It’s Bernie’s wilful ignorance and stubbornness in denying the reality of universal collectivism’s total failure that pisses me off about him.
Whatever drugs are necessary to believe that Bernie Sanders could EVER be President, I want them now.
Wow. 232 years without a Jewish President and counting. It’s as if this nation won’t elect a Jewish President ever!
Whodathunkit? Oh yeah. Me. Three months ago. And all those wasted 0’s and 1’s about Bloomberg this and Bernie that. Such blabber.
Remember this for 2024. If a candidate has not publicly accepted Jesus Christ as his or HER savior, ignore that candidate.
Sincerely,
A Jew
Sleemo out.
Bernie would be crazy to quit tomorrow, no chance of that happening (even though Trump calls him ‘crazy Bernie’, he’s not that crazy). With the next debate a one-on-one affair on Sunday, he will take his best shot at Joe and then see how he does in the primaries on Tuesday.
No way he will quit before the debate this weekend. Others have pointed out that with Joe prone to self-destruction it may make sense to stay in until the convention.
The Democrats are fools. They had a chance with Bernie, but are voting for a guy with sloppy memory and verbal skills. Trump is going to slaughter Biden in the debates and he will have another four years as our President. I think the Democrats are so fearful of Bernie that they are willing to sacrifice this election. Bernie screwed up too by not assuring Boomers that they will still receive their social security and medicare with no decreases. Also, Bernie failed to present a logical way to pay for his ideas of healthcare for all. To me, I htink the Democrats are toast for a party. They can’t put logic ahead of their thoughts. The Republicans are better than the Democrats, but not that much. They have forgotten about the debt and deficits. Very sad days for America.
A chance for what? Trillions in slave reparations? The ending of all private transportation? The doubling of utility bills? All Sanders would have given us is the next Civil War. I am a democrat, Sanders is not, he is the very last person on this planet I would vote for. You might not think Biden is the best and maybe we could do a lot better, but I would vote for Trump before I would vote for Sanders.
How much of Milwaukee will burn when the Bernie Bros object to the Nomination dumpster fire? 1968 on steroids!
Unbelievable endless news cycle going on. Coronona virus is now being patented (PAF) and being used politically and economically to panic global markets and citizens all over the world. The media isn’t listening to official government health recommendations. The Democrats are attacking what a disgrace.
Trump has lied constantly for 3 years. Only fools believe about anything at this point. It’s battered wife syndrome.
Hard to imagine that addled old hair sniffer as President though.
I didn’t think Bernie would get it. The last time was his chance and he is the one who actually gets robbed. Bernie was the only one who stood a chance to beat trump. Biden will lose. It’s almost like they want trump in there. Biden has dementia. He is already saying stupid things. oh well. I really don’t care who wins. I am not voting.The entire process is a kangaroo election.
He could not have beaten Trump, and I am sorry to have to ask you to actually think. In 2016 polls showed that between 60 and 70% of democrats had an unfavorable view of socialism, most of them would simply not vote for Sanders, and that is still true today. I am a lifelong democrat and have only twice voted for a republican for president (since 1976) and in reality both times I was voting AGAINST the democratic nominee because I felt they were not up to the job, or in the case of Jimmy Carter in 1980 I knew he was not up to the job.
I am glad Sanders did not get nominated in 16, and if he worked some miracle and got the nomination this time I would vote for Trump before Sanders. But the only way that will happen is if Biden dies prior to November.
The only political group I think is more stupid than republicans, who I have less respect for than the GOP, with less integrity than the right, is socialists.
This campaign is a good example of how the parties manipulate the election process. It was questioned why there will still so many candidates debating so late in the race. Also, that Bloomberg was even allowed in so late.
When all these candidates began to drop out they gave their delegate votes away to Biden. So, if you voted for Buttigieg, those votes went to Biden. Same for the rest.
This is likely how we ended up the the unlikely pair, Bush Jr and Gore.
Neither very popular, but there they were.
The primary system is corrupt and we end up with a choice between candidates the public, likely did not even want.
Interesting that this does not become a big issue. Guess the media won’t help us there either.
Exactly, heads I win, tails you lose
The system is certainly, as you describe, vulnerable to a swarming attack: Flood the primaries with candidates specifically catering to each and every special interest and single issue voting population, then have them all drop out and hand their delegates to the anointed candidate.
Biden may still have beat Sanders even if the two of them were the sole candidates from the get go. But you can’t reliably draw that conclusion with any certainty, based on the process which has led us to here.
So when the big convention rolls around and Biden’s family announces that he has been hospitalized and is withdrawing from the race who do you think will rise to the already scripted occasion and become the saviour of the democratic party?
Gonzo Thompson; It worked with Lazarus, and I can prove he’s still more alive than either Bernie or joe.
The other one rhymes with pillory, where she’d put the party, and I refuse to type it.
“I am not a member of any organized political party-I am a Democrat.” Will Rogers
In 52 years, Democrats will have progressed from electing Nixon to reelecting The Donald.
I’m old enough to remember when the Democratic Party was pro-labor. Unfortunately, that morphed into pro-systemically-corrupt-unions.
Sanders never had any real hope of winning Mish, but then he did not in 2016 either. His goal isn’t the Oval Office, his goal is to play spoiler for the democrats who he hates far more than the GOP. In his mind the GOP is the reactionary right wing monstor that needs to be overthrown in his worker’s pardise and the only thing standing in his way is the Democratic Party! He sees democrats as the real enemy because without them in the way he could easily end the two party system and forever destroy republicanism. He sees republicans as basically evil and yet they are just being who and what they are, on the other hand democrats who SHOULD be coronating him as premier of the socialist worker’s paradise are the ones actually thwarting his efforts.
He raised a lot of money which he can use to go on fighting, even with no chance of winning himself, but, he can and will use that warchest to make sure the democrats do not win either. Not only that but he has the down ballot votes to think about, even if he can’t be our first socialist leader he wants his disruptive “progressive” AOC’s and Talibs down ballot to win seats because he knows that every seat they take they cost democrats another seat in congress.
What I predict is he will stay in till the convention and even get nastier and play dirtier than ever after today, and he will do as he did in 2016 and dog whistle his thuggish scum to vote for Trump over Biden, or at the very least stay home.
This is (the primary reason) why I maintain that he is the very last person on this planet I would vote for as our president, if his name any any other are on the ballot in November I will be voting for the other! And you know me to be a democrat.
Wow, that’s a severe analysis. I’m not sure you’re wrong. I think Bernie has always been a movement politician, as opposed to a politician who wants to govern – making and owning all the compromises that requires. But, by your own analysis, a vote for Trump (versus Bernie) is just as much a vote for Bernie. [And sufficient numbers of Bernie supporters voted for Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin to swing the electoral College.]
I urge you to rethink your vote. Bernie will not be able to enact a revolution from the White House (even if Democrats hold the House and retake the Senate). But Trump will be able to continue his (which is not traditional Republicanism by any stretch). But I appreciate your analysis..
$Blankman, I live (until March 30) in a state with “progressives” as both governor and speaker of the house in the legislature, in 5 years they have made Oregon UNLIVABLE! They do not need a communist party revolution to enact just enough damaging policy to ruin a place, I am seeing with my own eyes in my state.
They decided to make more housing available to the welfare class by passing a law that banned discrimination in source of income which sounded alright till you consider that it forced landlords to accept HUD Section 8 vouchers with the threat of an $11,000 fine per incident. Because “progressives” are always right and willing to use the power of government to force their policies on the public they insisted that landlords comply, but of course landlords did not want to accept the poor into their housing. The governor and speaker simply behave as if all rental housing is actually government property and the landlords are merely managers rather than owning the property themselves.
Something that never even occured to the so called “progressives.” Landlords simply raised rents beyond what HUD could by law pay. By law HUD can pay up to 135% of the median rent for a statistical subdivision. The place I was renting in 2015 for $725 per month when the law was passed is now $1,300. As that median rises with these increases HUD can pay the cost, but the landlords will just keep raising the rents. And they have started to charge ridiculous deposits in the area of a couple grand. They also are stripping out appliances since the poor have no savings or credit, if they did they would not qualify for HUD. In 2015 we had a vacancy rate of 5.6%, now less than 1% and that is either the substandard part of the market or the very high end that nobody can afford.
And homelessness is almost as bad here as in California now. Not content to accept that they and their coersion failed, they passed a statewide housing emergency and the nation’s first statewide rent control law. This will guarantee that rents rise at the legal limit forever. And what is that limit? The CPI plus 10%.
They also want to be seen as the leaders in stopping man made gloabal warming so they are fighting hard for a cap and trade carbon tax. Great, within a few years that will double gasoline prices and more than double household utilities. In fact scientists have weighed in and said that it is admirable to want to do something about warming but this law will do nothing since Oregon’s contribution to the problem is so small it is not even measurable.
What else, they banned free single use plasic grocery bags starting in January, you have to pay for them now. And they have to be heavy enough not to blow around in the environment, so a lot more plastic used per bag, which is smaller and holds half the groceries of the old bags. They also required restaurants to make customers ask for a straw. Because we all know straws how are about to ruin the environmnet. The only thing that has accomplished is to remind people how intrusive government can be when it sets it’s mind to it.
They are really good at finding the most micro solutions to macro problems I can even imagine, even as the macro solutions to micro problems lay waste to entire vital market places like the residential real estate rental market. And when they are wrong which is most of the time, they simply decide to keep doubling down till they have subdued all freedoms.
That is what the so called made up and non existent “democratic socialism” political left is really all about. They make a decision and they are going to be right no matter what and if you do not like it you are invited to leave. Which is exactly what I am doing right now.
Bernie would be unwise to drop out. I just can’t see the Democrats running Joe Biden, a man whose mental acuity is deteriorating in plain sight. One or two more ‘lying dog faced pony soldier’ cracks or meandering stream of unconsciousness replies to a question and its going to be the end of the road for Biden.
That does not mean Bernie would by default be the alternative but he would have the largest bloc of delegates. Bernie is too old and has his own health issues. The Democrats are going to have to invent a new candidate in Milwaukee and Bernies will either get a major say on who it will be or they could just walk out and run Bernie as a 3rd party candidate.
Sangell, I agree. The DNC is in a tough spot. Not to mention any legal writs served against Biden viz. Ukraine. And the Republicans will definitely play that card if available.
If there is one thing we have learned under the Trump administration, mental acuity is not prime among factors required for the office of president. Nor mental stability.
Trump is quick on the reply, though. And generally funny. That’s what most debate watchers are left with, as “evidence” of mental acuity. Not deductive, nor inductive, ability to tackle complex problems.
Biden really is like an old man, fumbling around looking for the slippers hidden under his robe.
I agree. Vice Pres. Biden is in his 70s and showing acute signs of either mental decline or some other cognitive difficulty. Knowing this, why would Sen. Sanders NOT keep going? At worst, he can “magnanimously” withdraw at the convention. If — however — Vice President Biden’s condition (whatever it may be) is bad enough, then Sen. Sanders has an excellent argument to make that he should get the nomination due to the former VP’s condition.
Sanders had a heart attack just 3 months ago. He is older than Biden, and Trumps ability to form a sentence is indeed nearly non existent. All three need to be judged on election day bearing in mind who their VP choice will be because it is very likely that that person will be our president before 2024. I can tell you this much, I will not vote for a socialist or so called “progressive.” That means Sanders is the last person I would vote for, and if Biden selects a VP with progressive credentials like Harris I will not vote for him either.
What happens when the dems finally realize Biden is senile and they need a new candidate. I am hoping they will pick Bloomberg the most palatable of the candidates.
What? Bloomberg? This is Hillary’s golden moment. Mentioning Hillary is almost taboo anymore, but watching the losing Democratic candidates in lock-step acquiescence to the diktats of the DNC — ‘endorse Biden!’ — in my mind makes Hillary viable, especially if Biden’s apparent dementia really becomes symptomatic 24/7.
The democrats will say, and be 100% correct, that a senile Biden is still far better than an insane senile drug snorting Trump.
Another SouthPark election… turd sandwich vs giant douche.
Can you elaborate as to which is which?
I’m having trouble discerning…
It is a pretty depressing picture for the Presidential election, Biden vs. Trump. Really pathetic in fact.
I agree. The system is broken. Maybe America is broken.
Trump, Biden, Clinton, how can these be the best candidates we have? What are people basing their votes on? It seems the worst possible candidate they can elect. I literally told my daughter I would vote democrat for president for the first time, as long as they didn’t nominate Biden. Anyone else. But they managed to nominate the worst candidate they had running……. awful.
The DNC “who’s turn is it?” machine gets what it wants….always, apparently.
Tulsi Gabbard is the sanest most honest politician in Washington who actually has the titanium cohones to pull us out of foreign wars. Imagine the response had she been in charge when the coronavirus broke out.
You had to pick the single most objectionable garbage of a candidate, you MUST be a russian troll farm employee.
The party needs to find a better candidate than biden.
link to youtube.com
Think you are probably right: Bernie is toast. But if the best you can do is Biden then my God. The man is corrupt without a shadow of doubt, and judging by recent events one has to question if he has all his marbles. Don’t think he has. Looks as if the best option is another term for Trump.
I agree. I agree with Mish, Bernie is the only honest one. While his message resonated with a great many true believers, it didn’t with most Americans.
His message will continue to resonate strong with the post-Boomer generations that saw their parents work half as hard to obtain as twice as much as they will ever have. By 2024, they will be the power majority and will certainly tip (most likely AOC) into office. Before you call that prediction crazy let’s remember that there is a reality TV show “star” currently occupying the chair that everyone said would never, ever make it.
If you or anyone had even the slightest shred of evidence that Biden was corrupt you would have shared it by now, all you have is partisan slander that is not supported by any facts. As to marbles, one thing Trump (building onSaint Ronnie’s work) has done is to make suremarbles were not a requirement to hold the office of presidency. You want to make the left laugh just keep pretending that your party produces intelligent and cogent candidates.
Bernie has no chance, but I suspect his pride may not allow him to drop out. His fall was going to happen sooner or later. People who don’t vote for him will never vote for him. At least in the primaries.
Sanders’ odds in Michigan, Illinois, & Ohio may be higher than what your graphs are showing because of blue collar workers there. He may also do better than projected in Washington. But I agree if he can’t do well on March 10 then he might as well drop out.
Flashback March 1 – by Helene84
“Biden will be crushed on Tuesday. He is clearly sundowning and his family corruption has caught up with him. He has no political operation beyond SC, no ground game whatsoever and almost no cash on hand.”
Uh…..
Not exactly
When you’re corrupt, and the institution around you is corrupt, it must be protected at all costs. The Party doesn’t matter as the money comes from the same places.
Bernie is just unlucky. He would have probably won it all in 2016 had the superdelegates not been in Clinton’s wallet. This time the Dems were not going to make the same mistake twice and fragmented the vote. Bernie’s message is also stale with people overall seeing some light under Trump (until maybe now). The country could do worse then Biden but my only question is why are 3 guys in their mid to late 70s going to survive coronavirus ? The VP needs to be much younger as they probably will become President irrespective of who gets elected.
I agree – Bernie would have beaten Trump
His time passed
Bernie wouldn’t play nice with the DNC. It’s a hit job, in a way.
Don’t be so sure, lifelong party line democrat voters such as myself would never EVER have voted for Sanders, and we still will not. It was stupidity in the extreme for the DNC to allow him to run as a democrat in 2016, even as his “progressive” borg like AOC were primarying democrats, it was a sure win for Trump when they allowed him to do it again in 2020, he had acted as spoiler which cost the 100,000 votes in three states that handed Trump the electoral college in spite of a loss in the popular vote, I told my party then and stand by it though the DNC simply does not care, if you allow Sanders to run as a democrat again in 2020 then you can kiss me goodbye because I will not be a registered democrat anymore. And that is still true, I will vote democrat whenever I can, but progressives are NOT democrats and I will not vote for them. I live in a state where a “progressive” democrat is governor and a Sanders borg is speaker of the house in the legislature, they have so fucked up this state I have bought a house and am moving to Florida before the end of the month just because it is that or live in my car, rents doubled in the last five years because of their stupid socialist bullshit!
What I would like to see is a new party that is moderate and centrist in which reasonable people for both the GOP and democrats can get together and leave the Trump far right behind, as well as the far left commies of the Sanders “progressive” borg. After all, most of the GOP is not ideologicaly driven proto Nazis as most would have you believe any more than most democrats are Hugo Chavez worshiping bots without a brain.
There are mostly just Americans who lean right or left but are not frothing at the mouth fanatics, who will make their points in election years then once stated can live with results either way because true politics is able to compromise in a democracy. But, as soon as you get a Trump supported by a Moscow Mitch who has vowed never to compromise because of his stated racism against the likes of a black man like Obama, and that was his ONLY real objection to Obama, then you have a political war that must in the end express itself in a real war. We are so damned close to that it is not funny and coming back from that brink is not going to be easy. Sanders would push us over that edge, and as a veteran I have to say, civil war is not something modern America can survive.
Well stated Herkie. I think most American are moderates/centrists, but only affiliate with a party due to state voting residency and voting requirements.
You guys love Bernie…lol
I doubt his own wife loves him, she is only in it because he gives her a ton of free stuff, the communist minx.
I think Biden is in with a strong shout. The world is falling apart for Trump at just the wrong time.
I agree. The economy is going to die on the vine and leave people in tears. The economy was the only thing holding it together for Trump. I wouldn’t be surprised if he isn’t even the nominee come summer if it gets bad enough. This election is reminiscent of 2008. No matter what candidate the Democrats put up then, they would have won and did. If the markets get really chaotic as the year goes along, even the investor community will switchover to Biden.
No, Biden is a tottering old man. This will become apparent. Orange Man wins by default.
I agree. Biden can barely string a coherent sentence together. Trump is going to be merciless with any of his “senior moments”. It’s pretty sad actually.
I just have to shake my head at the Democrat’s inability to put forward a proper candidate again…
Trump depends on people having short-term memory. But come November, families of those who were intubated in hospital hallways this Spring/Summer will not have forgotten his crisis misdirection.
Not to be the devil’s advocate, but the virus outbreak will be an excuse. It won’t hurt him.
I suspect Biden may end up in a physical altercation at one of his events before it’s all over. This is the 3rd or 4th time he’s got into verbal altercations at a rally. Not a good sign or visual
News about Biden’s Brother, Greasy Palm Jimmy, is bound to catch up with Joe.
So it’s 4 more years of Trump then.
I don’t believe he will do very well this summer with the economy crashing and the healthcare system crashing.
I said Tuesday about 16 minutes ago but was scrambling to get this out Monday evening. I finished the post and cleaned up a few missing items like the March 17 primaries and delegate projections.
OK – so it’s Trump verses..well, you know the thing…