Kiss Bernie Goodbye

The only remaining question is "When does he drop out?"

I suspect Bernie will throw in the towel tomorrow night or Wednesday. If not, then give it another 8 days. A look at upcoming primaries and pledged delegates will explain why.

Pledged Delegates

Image placeholder title

California and Colorado are still counting but even if you give all the remaining Super Tuesday delegates to Sanders he is hopelessly behind.

Also you can put Bloomberg's 61, Buttigieg's 26, and Klobuchar's 7 in Bidens column. Technically those are free delegates, but conventions says they are supposed to vote for another candidate if endorsed. All three endorsed Biden. Warren has not yet endorsed Sanders, and I do not believe she ever will. He will drop out soon enough.

Super Tuesday Projection

My Super Tuesday Projection was Biden 696, Sanders 633, Bloomberg 66, and Warren 70.

That looks reasonably close but add in endorsements and I projected Biden 795 and Sanders 633.

Again, that will be close, and the math looks like this.

Biden = 795 / 1499 = 53.0%

March 10 Democratic Primaries


Image placeholder title

I expect Biden will win 67% of those delegates. That's another 234 delegates in his camp which would put him at roughly 795 + 234 = 1029 delegates.

Perhaps Sanders stays in for one more week.

March 17 Democratic Primaries

Image placeholder title

Give Biden about 67% of those delegates. That's another 387 delegates in his camp which would put him at roughly 1029 + 387 = 1416 delegates.

Assuming Sanders makes it that far, he will then be forced to concede it's totally hopeless.

Honest Loser

Bernie is a socialist, but he is the most honest of the bunch.

He is also the only genuine anti-war candidate, not counting Tulsi Gabbard.

My Expectation

Bernie will drop out on Wednesday March 11 "for the good of the party and the good of the nation" to beat Trump.

If not then, add another week, March 18.

Mike "Mish Shedlock

Peak Bernie: Kiss His Chances Goodbye

A slew of new polls released this morning suggests the campaign of Bernie Sanders just came crashing down.

Slew of New Polls Have Bad News for Bernie

A few new polls came out today. They did not improve the chances of Bernie Sanders winning the Democratic nomination.

Bernie Edged Buttigieg But Klobuchar is the Real Winner

Bernie Sanders edged Pete Buttigieg in close New Hampshire primary. The real winner vs expectations was Amy Klobuchar.

Pete Buttigieg Drops Out in Nod to Biden

Following a poor showing in the South Carolina Primary, Pete Buttigieg dropped out of the Democratic race.

Bloomberg Drops Out, Praises Biden: What to Expect Now?

Bloomberg just dropped out. What happens next?

Bernie Sanders Throws in the Towel: Victory is Impossible

Bernie Sanders finally did what I expected a couple weeks ago: Admit the setup was impossible and drop out.

How Did Klobuchar Dropping Out Impact Super Tuesday?

With klobuchar dropping out of the race, my delegate estimate changes significantly.

Bernie's Odds of Winning the Nomination are Under 50%

Careful poll and betting odds analysis suggest Bernie's chances are not as good as the media bandwagon thinks.

Whole New Ballgame With Blowout Win for Biden

Joe Biden had a massive win over Bernie Sanders in South Carolina. That makes it a new ballgame.