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Kiss Bernie Goodbye

The only remaining question is "When does he drop out?"

I suspect Bernie will throw in the towel tomorrow night or Wednesday. If not, then give it another 8 days. A look at upcoming primaries and pledged delegates will explain why.

Pledged Delegates

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California and Colorado are still counting but even if you give all the remaining Super Tuesday delegates to Sanders he is hopelessly behind.

Also you can put Bloomberg's 61, Buttigieg's 26, and Klobuchar's 7 in Bidens column. Technically those are free delegates, but conventions says they are supposed to vote for another candidate if endorsed. All three endorsed Biden. Warren has not yet endorsed Sanders, and I do not believe she ever will. He will drop out soon enough.

Super Tuesday Projection

My Super Tuesday Projection was Biden 696, Sanders 633, Bloomberg 66, and Warren 70.

That looks reasonably close but add in endorsements and I projected Biden 795 and Sanders 633.

Again, that will be close, and the math looks like this.

Biden = 795 / 1499 = 53.0%

March 10 Democratic Primaries

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I expect Biden will win 67% of those delegates. That's another 234 delegates in his camp which would put him at roughly 795 + 234 = 1029 delegates.

Perhaps Sanders stays in for one more week.

March 17 Democratic Primaries

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Give Biden about 67% of those delegates. That's another 387 delegates in his camp which would put him at roughly 1029 + 387 = 1416 delegates.

Assuming Sanders makes it that far, he will then be forced to concede it's totally hopeless.

Honest Loser

Bernie is a socialist, but he is the most honest of the bunch.

He is also the only genuine anti-war candidate, not counting Tulsi Gabbard.

My Expectation

Bernie will drop out on Wednesday March 11 "for the good of the party and the good of the nation" to beat Trump.

If not then, add another week, March 18.

Mike "Mish Shedlock