The lead graph is from the Wall Street Journal 2020 Live Primary Results.
I use some percentages from Politico in my analysis below.
Let’s hone in on delegates from Real Clear Politics.
1127 Assigned Delegates
- Biden has 566 of 1215 of the assigned delegates: 46.6%
- Bernie has 501 of the assigned delegates: 41.2%
My Unassigned Expectations for States 100% In
- Alabama: +4 to Biden
- Minnesota: +1 to Biden
- Texas: 34.5 / (34.1 + 30.0) * 69 = +37 to Biden
- Texas: 30.0 / (34.1 + 30.0) * 69 = +32 to Sanders
- Tennessee: 41.7 / (41.7 + 25.0 + 15.5) * 11 = +6 to Biden
- Tennessee: 25.0 / (41.7 + 25.0 + 15.5) * 11 = +3 to Sanders
- Tennessee: 25.0 / (41.7 + 25.0 + 15.5) * 11 = +2 to Bloomberg
- North Carolina: 43.0 / (43.0 + 24.1) * 7 = +4 to Biden
- North Carolina: 24.1 / (43.0 + 24.1) * 7 = +3 to Sanders
- Massachusetts: +2 to Biden
- Massachusetts: +1 to Sanders
That totals 185 with 189 to go.
Note: Unless a candidate gets 15% they get no statewide delegates. Where 100% of the vote is in, my calculations assume, perhaps inaccurately, most of the unassigned delegates are statewide delegates.
My Expectations for States 100% In – Totals
- Biden: 4 + 1 + 37 + 6 + 4 + 2 = 54
- Sanders: 32 + 3 + 3 + 1 = 39
- Bloomberg: 2
Again, that totals 95 with 189 to go, primarily in California.
California Delegates: What’s Going On?
I did a separate post on California: California Delegates: What’s Going On?
In the above post, I had 61 to Biden with 73 to Sanders but I need to come up with 144 so I made this generous to Sanders readjustment.
- Biden: +64
- Sanders: +80
Those totals assume Bernie’s lead in California will grow due to mail-in votes not yet counted.
Colorado
Colorado is the biggest guess because of reporting estimates and mail-in votes. There are 28 votes to assign with a 4-way split because 4 candidates easily cleared the 15% threshold.
Biden: 23.6%, Sanders 36.1%, Bloomberg 20.5%, Warren 17.3%
Let’s run the math assuming those percentages to hold.
- Biden: 23.6 / (23.6 + 36.1 + 20.5 +17.3) * 28 = 7
- Sanders: 36.1 / (23.6 + 36.1 + 20.5 +17.3) * 28 = 10
- Bloomberg: 20.5 / (23.6 + 36.1 + 20.5 +17.3) * 28 = 6
- Warren: 17.3 / (23.6 + 36.1 + 20.5 +17.3) * 28 = 5
Utah
Utah is also a 4-way split with 17 to assign.
Because the current assignment is so lopsided vs candidate percentages, I do not think the standard math applies. Instead I will take this stab.
- Biden: +5
- Sanders: +3
- Bloomberg: +5
- Warren: +4
California + Colorado + Utah
- Biden: 64 + 7 + 5 = 76
- Sanders: 80 + 10 + 3 = 93
- Bloomberg: 6 + 5 = 11
- Warren: 5 + 4 = 9
That totals 189 as required.
Grand Totals Unassigned
- Biden: 54 + 76 = 130
- Sanders: 39 + 93 = 132
- Bloomberg: 2 + 11 = 13
- Warren: 9
That totals 284 as required.
Grand Totals Unassigned + Assigned
Biden: 566 + 130 = 696
Sanders: 501 + 132 = 633
Bloomberg: 53 + 13 = 66
Warren: 61 + 9 = 70
Buttigieg: 26
Klobuchar: 7
Gabbard: 1
That totals 1499 as required.
But What About Buttigieg, Bloomberg, and Klobuchar?
Dropouts are technically free but they are supposed to vote if their candidate endorses someone still in the race.
Those three candidates endorsed Biden. It is possible Warren does the same. It is also possible she endorses Sanders or no one at all. I expect the latter. So let’s continue with the math.
Grand Totals Unassigned + Assigned + Dropout Endorsements
Biden: 696 + 66 Bloomberg + 26 Buttigieg + 7 Klobuchar = 795
Sanders: 633
Biden = 795 / 1499 = 53.0%
That’s an outright majority and approximately where we really are. It will remain that way even if Warren endorses Sanders.
If Warren were to endorse Biden, he would have (795 + 70) / 1499 = 57.7%
If Warren were to endorse Sanders, he would have 46.9%
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I am suprised I have not read any comments questioning the results! Biden trailed everywhere, then suddenly, and out of no where here comes Joe. Something smells very fishy. I feel back room deals were cut at DNC headquarters.
My guess is the Democrats would rather lose to Trump than have Bernie as president.
Biden is a bumbling fool. He cannot put more than a few sentences together before the dementia shows through. Investigating the Biden’s will expose a sordid lifestyle.
Tulsi is the only candidate that is not an empty suit. Therefore she must not be allowed to rise.
Let the entertainment begin.
How is that bet on Bloomberg working out for you Mish? Oh that’s right he just dropped out. Lol sorry Mish I just had to bring that up!
Regarding Biden I think we should be equally careful to assume that he is a shoe in for the Democratic nomination.
No matter what the data points look like at any one moment this nomination process has proven that things can change in a New York minute.
I think uncertainty is the order of the day.
Warren is out! Really is a two man race now.
Tulsi could still win if Biden and Sanders die.
Who am I kidding? It would either be Oprah, Hillary, or Michelle if that happened.
I really don’t see how the Democrats can actually run Joe Biden. He isn’t making ‘gaffes’ he is losing his mind. Having this guy making public appearances for the next 8 months will make his loss of mental acuity painfully clear. His advisors and family need to intervene before he humiliates himself any further.
I tend to agree, it is hard to imagine him lasting another 8 months without self-destructing.
I think he will get destroyed on the debate stage. Trump is an effective debater because he knows how to push his opponent’s buttons. I just re-watched some of his performances against Clinton. At times she had steam coming out of her ears while ineffectively attempting to hide her rage behind a smile, and her responses then came across as childish.
Putting Biden through the rigor of a campaign and then debates against a bully in his state seems like elder abuse.
Who Biden selects as VP is going to determine the next president if Biden is elected. Biden is going to be a ‘Weekend at Bernie’s’ president. The VP will be the one calling the shots. Similar to Chaney and Bush.
Biden has the nomination. But unless Trump beats himself or the military-industrial complex beats him for withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, Biden will lose to Trump.
The last four presidents to defeat incumbent presidents were FDR, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton. With the exception of FDR, none of these had ever held national political or high office and even FDR had only been Assist. Sec of the Navy 12 years before running for president. All were governors, that is, outsiders to Washington.
When the presidency changes hands, whether by term limits, or incumbent loss, the new president is someone who is at least perceived to be an outsider. This was why I correctly predicted that Trump would beat Hillary several months before the 2016 election (which I did not participate in).
What makes a candidate an ‘insider’ or ‘outsider’? Obviously, a sitting VP is an insider as he is part of the current administration. Only 2 sitting VPs (Van Buren & Bush 41) have been elected president.
Another example of an insider is a sitting Senator. While Senators are not part of the executive/administration, they approve a president’s Cabinet choices (including assistants), ambassadors, judges, etc. They have a great deal of sway over the executive branch so most should be considered insiders. Some Senators, such as Sanders, have an independent streak so probably should not be considered insiders.
Every presidential election in my memory has always included a lot of sitting Senators in the running. How many sitting Senators have won the presidency? Just 3- Harding, Kennedy and Obama. Kennedy ran against a sitting VP and Obama ran against another sitting Senator (McCain). The fact that so many Senators run but so few get elected ought to tell you something about their electability.
So what about Trump and Biden. Biden is neither a sitting Senator nor a sitting VP, but a past one of each. He has also run for president before. And he was a very long time member of Congress. Definitely an insider.
Trump was the ultimate outsider in 2016. And, in many ways, he is still an outsider to his own administration. He’s not the ‘ultimate’ outsider anymore but is a lot closer than Biden. That’s why this election is Trump’s to lose.
Trump could lose the election if his stock market (yes, he has claimed it) tanks, especially if he really goes crazy like Herbert Hoover and tells his supporters to BTFD on every dip. On the other hand, if he blames it on the coronavirus, he won’t be hurt much, if any. His Wall and his anti-free trade stance might actually give him a boost. Being opposed to immigration won’t hurt him politically in the least.
So I am putting my head on the block and predicting Trump beats Biden.
Don t understand all that excitement about the elections….. One (old) fart or another, it won t make a fckn difference ….. It is Deep State calling the shots by means of Big bribing(lobbying they call it) corporations, corrupt(lobbied) politicians, the Military and the CIA…..Your elections are a JOKE !
Agree. Which is why I don’t participate. However, I won a dinner bet on my 2016 prediction. And it was a good dinner.
Trump is in no way an outsider today. He runs both the entire executive branch of the government and the Republican Party. He gets rid of anyone in either who say bad things about him (the ultimate offence in Trump’s mind). He was an outsider when he entered the White House, but it is laughable to call him one now.
“He was an outsider when he entered the White House, but it is laughable to call him one now.”
Considering the real insiders are still trying to get rid of Trump, he is still an outsider.
It’s a matter of perception on the part of the voter.
However, you are quite wrong about Trump running everything and firing people. He can’t pull troops out of Syria because the military-foreign policy establishment won’t let him. Sen Lindsey Graham is trying to stop him pulling troops from Afghanistan. And he’s gotten himself in trouble politically every time he’s fired someone.
How about a cage match between Biden and Trump? That would be more interesting than a debate.
NO WAY , it would ruin Trump’s coiffure too badly !