The lead graph is from the Wall Street Journal 2020 Live Primary Results.

I use some percentages from Politico in my analysis below.

Let's hone in on delegates from Real Clear Politics.

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1127 Assigned Delegates

  • Biden has 566 of 1215 of the assigned delegates: 46.6%
  • Bernie has 501 of the assigned delegates: 41.2%

My Unassigned Expectations for States 100% In

  • Alabama: +4 to Biden
  • Minnesota: +1 to Biden
  • Texas: 34.5 / (34.1 + 30.0) * 69 = +37 to Biden
  • ​Texas: 30.0 / (34.1 + 30.0) * 69 = +32 to Sanders
  • Tennessee: 41.7 / (41.7 + 25.0 + 15.5) * 11 = +6 to Biden
  • Tennessee: 25.0 / (41.7 + 25.0 + 15.5) * 11 = +3 to Sanders
  • Tennessee: 25.0 / (41.7 + 25.0 + 15.5) * 11 = +2 to Bloomberg
  • North Carolina: 43.0 / (43.0 + 24.1) * 7 = +4 to Biden
  • North Carolina: 24.1 / (43.0 + 24.1) * 7 = +3 to Sanders
  • Massachusetts: +2 to Biden
  • Massachusetts: +1 to Sanders

That totals 185 with 189 to go.

Note: Unless a candidate gets 15% they get no statewide delegates. Where 100% of the vote is in, my calculations assume, perhaps inaccurately, most of the unassigned delegates are statewide delegates.

My Expectations for States 100% In - Totals

  • Biden: 4 + 1 + 37 + 6 + 4 + 2 = 54
  • Sanders: 32 + 3 + 3 + 1 = 39
  • Bloomberg: 2

Again, that totals 95 with 189 to go, primarily in California.

California Delegates: What's Going On?

I did a separate post on California: California Delegates: What's Going On?

In the above post, I had 61 to Biden with 73 to Sanders but I need to come up with 144 so I made this generous to Sanders readjustment.

  • Biden: +64
  • Sanders: +80

Those totals assume Bernie's lead in California will grow due to mail-in votes not yet counted.

Colorado

Colorado is the biggest guess because of reporting estimates and mail-in votes. There are 28 votes to assign with a 4-way split because 4 candidates easily cleared the 15% threshold.

Biden: 23.6%, Sanders 36.1%, Bloomberg 20.5%, Warren 17.3%

Let's run the math assuming those percentages to hold.

  • Biden: 23.6 / (23.6 + 36.1 + 20.5 +17.3) * 28 = 7
  • Sanders: 36.1 / (23.6 + 36.1 + 20.5 +17.3) * 28 = 10
  • Bloomberg: 20.5 / (23.6 + 36.1 + 20.5 +17.3) * 28 = 6
  • Warren: 17.3 / (23.6 + 36.1 + 20.5 +17.3) * 28 = 5

Utah

Utah is also a 4-way split with 17 to assign.

Because the current assignment is so lopsided vs candidate percentages, I do not think the standard math applies. Instead I will take this stab.

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  • Biden: +5
  • Sanders: +3
  • Bloomberg: +5
  • Warren: +4

California + Colorado + Utah

  • Biden: 64 + 7 + 5 = 76
  • Sanders: 80 + 10 + 3 = 93
  • Bloomberg: 6 + 5 = 11
  • Warren: 5 + 4 = 9

That totals 189 as required.

Grand Totals Unassigned

  • Biden: 54 + 76 = 130
  • Sanders: 39 + 93 = 132
  • Bloomberg: 2 + 11 = 13
  • Warren: 9

That totals 284 as required.

Grand Totals Unassigned + Assigned

Biden: 566 + 130 = 696

Sanders: 501 + 132 = 633

Bloomberg: 53 + 13 = 66

Warren: 61 + 9 = 70

Buttigieg: 26

Klobuchar: 7

Gabbard: 1

That totals 1499 as required.

But What About Buttigieg, Bloomberg, and Klobuchar?

Dropouts are technically free but they are supposed to vote if their candidate endorses someone still in the race.

Those three candidates endorsed Biden. It is possible Warren does the same. It is also possible she endorses Sanders or no one at all. I expect the latter. So let's continue with the math.

Grand Totals Unassigned + Assigned + Dropout Endorsements

Biden: 696 + 66 Bloomberg + 26 Buttigieg + 7 Klobuchar = 795

Sanders: 633

Biden = 795 / 1499 = 53.0%

That's an outright majority and approximately where we really are. It will remain that way even if Warren endorses Sanders.

If Warren were to endorse Biden, he would have (795 + 70) / 1499 = 57.7%

If Warren were to endorse Sanders, he would have 46.9%

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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