Model Forecast
The FiveThirtyEight Model shows Biden has a 71% chance of winning the election.
My seat-of-the-pants forecast was 70%, nearly the same.
The FiveThirtyEight (538) model ran 40,000 simulation.
I ran zero simulations. Instead I looked at polls in swing states and concluded Trump’s path to victory was very narrow.
40,000 Simulations
Winding Path to Victory
That is precisely how I see things at the moment. Trump has moved up in recent North Carolina polls.
Biden’s running mate pick of Kamala Harris may swing North Carolina, Ohioa, and Georgia into the Trump column.
It could cost Biden the election, but by a 7-3 margin, likely not.
On July 1, 538 had Biden an 80% but his model was only released today.
Can You Trust the Polls?
Hillary Clinton led in the polls in 2016, right? Yes. But Clinton had only a small advantage in most surveys — Trump’s win was well within the range of normal polling error.
As elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley wrote last week, Biden’s lead over Trump has already topped Clinton’s post-convention peak. Biden also enjoys more overall support than Clinton. In other words, there’s a genuine difference between Biden’s position now and Clinton’s four years ago.
10 Key States Biden vs Trump 538 Odds
- Arizona: Biden 55 Trump 45
- Florida: Biden 64 Trump 35
- Georgia: Biden 34 Trump 66
- Iowa: Biden 32 Trump 68
- Michigan: Biden 81 Trump 19
- Minnesota: Biden 72 Trump 28
- North Carolina: Biden 49 Trump 51
- Ohio: Biden 45 Trump 55
- Pennsylvania: Biden 73 Trump 27
- Wisconsin: Biden 70 Trump 30
Trump’s Problem
- Trump desperately needs to hold Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio. North Carolina is nearly a 50-50 shot.
- Trump also needs to win Arizona, Florida, and either Wisconsin or Minnesota (or some other similar upset).
That is not impossible but it is unlikely.
Minnesota Shift
Arizona Shift
Florida Shift
I believe Harris subtracts from Biden’s chances especially in states like Ohio, Iowa, Minnesota, Georgia, and Arizona, perhaps even Florida.
Not a 2016 Replay
For many months, I have commented this is not a replay of 2016. Trump was never well liked, but many people in both parties despised Hillary.
Trump won in 2016 for five reasons.
- People hated Hillary more than Trump
- Trump was an unknown risk that swing voters were willing to take a chance on
- Hillary ran a very poor campaign
- A fantastic campaign slogan: Make America Great Again
- At the last minute, Comey rescued trump with an attack on Hillary and her email server.
Points 1-4 got Trump into the ballpark. It still took Point 5 to cross the finish line.
Despite all of those things Trump barely won as measured by tiny margins of victory in several critical swing states.
Understanding Political Polls
If you believe the GOP is seriously underweighted in the polls, you are mistaken.
For details, please see Understanding Political Polls: Is the GOP Underweighted?
What About Enthusiasm?
Another misconception is that Trump supporters are more enthusiastic than Biden supporters.
If you take negative enthusiasm into account Trump is on the Short End of the Enthusiasm Gap.
Polls will likely narrow, just not by enough.
Mish
Reply to BaronAsh: RE: “I take it from all your replies that you approve of …”
How can I approve or disapprove your straw-man (at least so far) scenarios?
You stated previously that you’ve been waiting for indictments, trials, convictions, jail-terms, even executions … Did I miss something? or are we all still waiting for those things? Let me know.
And BTW, Trump himself has done a far better job than his enemies of going after many of his associates … in fact, there are very few Trump has not gone after and terminated. All it seems to take to get that ball rolling is “I’m not sure I agree with you on that, Mr. President”
Though I’m sure “dirty tricks” including downright illegal activities (whether it’s “alleged” voter fraud by Democrats or “alleged” voter suppression by Republicans or “alleged” voter intimidation by all of them as just some of a myriad examples) have been going on since the beginning of the country, who of which party in the modern era would have been the first to be impeached had he not resigned?
Which party went after Bill Clinton for actions that while morally repugnant to me and many others hardly constituted “crimes” worthy of impeachment … oh yeah, the lying to Congress? just as stupid as his actions within the White House … but (admittedly without evidence) I would bet that quite a few other Presidents have been involved in similar morally repugnant actions and simply were discreet or clever enough to avoid detection … or any possible accusers were paid off or made to “disappear” .. you know, sort of like Stormy Daniels.
And in the area of “dirty tricks” or even actions that could cross over into sedition or “treason” (although not legally apart from wartime aid to enemies), I think history has shown quite clearly that “what goes around, comes around”. So the next time the controlling party of the House is not the party of the President I expect we can see more of the same, or even escalation.
RE: “As I said: the Republic is toast.”
Actually, Baron, your previous statement was “YOUR Republic is pretty much toast.”
An invitation to speculation …
I question whether the polls capture two things.
-Trump’s post office fiasco
-A successful DNC convention with the party united
Unlike in 2016 I see Biden healing and bridging the divide with progressives. They won’t stay home this time. I also think the Post Office Fiasco has hurt Trump.
I’ve also never seen such a concerted effort to peel away never Trumpers with ads from the LIncoln Grouup and enorsements from Generals and leaders both at the convention and before. Sure Trump will still get the majority of Republicans but I think he loses some low single digit numbers here and when you factor in the slim margins he won by in 2016 it hurts.
And it may be minor but the Senate report by the Select Intelligence Comittee was damning. North Carolina was always a toss-up.
Really enjoyed your blog for quite a while Mish but lately there is an emerging anti-trump bias. The election is a toss up at the moment and it’s hard to come to some of these conclusions before the debates. If Biden fails to show up for the debate, the election is over for him. Anything else is premature
Mish voted for Trump in 2016.
Nice try though…
More “Fake News.” Joe will be lucky to even be the candidate.
Nate Silver’s model.
I remember Ferguson’s model had over 2 million Americans dying of Covid.
Models don’t vote, people do. I remember the criticisms of Silver last time around.
Today’s polls do not tell anyone what will happen on election day.
Harris was once the odds on favorite to win the DNC nomination. One comment by Tulsi Gabbard and Harris faded away. She dropped out before the first primary.
Anything can happen between now and November 3.
Wow, these are the same odds Silver had just before last election. No question, Hillary in a landslide!
538 is a very skewed operation. However, the betting markets agree.
That said, this is a very one-off type situation and 3 months is a long time.
Meanwhile in Germany a large group of doctors announced that Covid is a hoax and that most of the additional deaths are closed from having closed down normal medical services – something I suggested here to Mish in another thread.
Covid is real but it ain’t the huge great killer it’s been hyped to be, though clearly it’s nasty for already very sick people.
Prophylactics exist but are being deliberately suppressed. I used to take HCQ for a chronic condition – can’t get it any more. Maybe for years into the future that will remain the case.
So that’s what I mean by unusual situation. We have an economic shut-down happening as part of a long-term political coup masquerading as a health emergency. What happens if this somehow becomes common knowledge? For that to happen, the MSM will have to be discredited. For that to happen, the attacks against Trump ab initio will have to discredited. For that to happen, a power higher than the DOJ will have to be involved. All of which is highly unlikely of course.
Meanwhile, intelligent people go to places like 538, partly to assure themselves that basically everything is normal and once this virus vaccine comes back – after the election of course – things will be just fine. Statistics work. Aberrations self-correct. We’ll be hunky dory in 2021. The social order which has been largely broken will come together again just fine.
Pity about all those people dying because we closed down the healthcare industry to take care of a pandemic. But they were going to die anyway, right? I mean: we’re all going to die, it’s just a matter of when not if. So no harm, no foul. That’s why Fauci won’t get fired. He did a great job scaring the country into breaking itself apart. Talk about dis-ease!
It is extraordinary that things are so out of wack that large numbers of people think that graft-ridden professional politicians like Biden and Harris represent a move back to decency and good government.
The nation is on a quasi psychotic bender!
RE: “It is extraordinary that things are so out of wack that large numbers of people think that graft-ridden professional politicians like Biden and Harris represent a move back to decency and good government.”
And just think, all it took was 4 years of Trumpty Dumpty to get to that point, illustrating just how much he has done to obliterate decency and good government to the degree that Biden and Harris look like an improvement.
RE: “The nation is on a quasi psychotic bender!”
A bender implemented by the narcissistic psychopath in-chief.
Yes, with TDS it always and only comes back to Trump.
I get it.
But if you are right, consider this:
what sort of country did we have that someone as terrible as that (and as terrible as Hillary) were the only two choices?
Surely you can’t blame him for that?
Maybe the nation needs a long hard look in the mirror.
But of course they don’t really choose the candidate (except possibly Trump though I have my doubts). All major party candidates are trotted out by organised political machines. The public usually only gets a choice between Tweedledum and Tweedledee.
Now: whose fault is that?
Maybe that’s where you should direct your considerable intelligence instead of mouthing off the shallow talking points media professionals have been shovelling non-stop for four years. (They are the ones who have poisoned national discourse, btw, not the individual they keep blaming.)
RE: “what sort of country did we have that someone as terrible as that (and as terrible as Hillary) were the only two choices?”
A country that was already in serious trouble … a country that had started down its wayward path decades before.
RE: “Surely you can’t blame him for that?”
Certainly not Trump in particular, but he was a member of the moneyed and unprincipled class that had gradually corrupted the government to a greater degree than ever before (at least in my lifetime). Some people made the mistake of thinking that because they considered him an “outsider to the political swamp” they failed to recognize he was actually part of the swamp that had a great deal of control over the political swamp because of the dollars they had available to buy its subservience.
RE: “All major party candidates are trotted out by organized political machines.”
No disagreement there … (your possible Trump exception noted). And those political machines are now bought and controlled by the corporate machine which doesn’t care whether Tweedledum or Tweedledee comes out on top because they are both going to ultimately bow to the corporate machine regardless of what the rest of their “policies” might be. All of that is just distracting entertainment, the “bread and circuses” that kept the masses in line, in debt, and oblivious to those behind the curtain pulling the levers.
RE: “Now: whose fault is that?”
Plenty of blame to go around, difficult to point out “the blameless” and that includes me. I don’t use this forum to preach my Christian faith, but the sum total of my answer would just be “it’s sinful human nature, all around”.
RE: ” mouthing off the shallow talking points media professionals have been shovelling non-stop for four years. (They are the ones who have poisoned national discourse, btw, not the individual they keep blaming.)”
That’s where we part company, because as much as I acknowledge the culpability of the MSM, your attempt to whitewash Trump every chance you get , as though he is some sort of “knight in shining armor trying desperately to bring us all back to that shining city on a hill” is just the flip side of the TDS “coin” you put me on. Just as the political machines are just the flip sides of the much more literal “coin” that has much control of the planet, and seeks ever more of it.
Good reply. Except I don’t think I do the knight in shining armour stuff. I DO point out that the attacks against him since Nov 8 2016 have been unprecedented, unwarranted and treasonous. That doesn’t make him an angel. But it does make him more sinned against than sinning, at least in that regard.
I cannot for the life of me see why he is running again unless he believes he can deal the Administrative State a body blow. He’s confronted it like nobody since JFK, I suspect, and now knows first hand how ruthless and vast it all is. I applaud anyone who is trying to restore the representative republic somehow, but don’t see any realistic way it can be done without dissolving the central USG and starting over. That ain’t likely. As it is, it needs must run itself into the ground, and unfortunately if history is any guide, millions will suffer and die when that happens, so it’s something I do not wish for.
No easy answers.
But personally, I don’t think Trump is nearly as important as the choices that must be made during this juncture in US history: either deep reform is done soon, or all that can be hoped for is a collapse without too much collateral damage to ordinary citizenry.
RE: “I cannot for the life of me see why he is running again unless he believes he can deal the Administrative State a body blow. He’s confronted it like nobody since JFK, I suspect, and now knows first hand how ruthless and vast it all is.”
Perhaps that sums up our differences better than my “knight in shining armor” reference . Although I certainly find it very telling when you write “He’s confronted it like nobody since JFK” which brings the whole “Camelot” and its “knights in shining armor” mythology to the fore again.
We both see a nation that has lost its way … we might have some common and some divergent opinions as to the causes of that downward trajectory … however …
You see a Trump who does what he does to save the nation, “to restore the representative republic somehow”, to rescue the people he serves from “the Administrative State” … and I see someone (never mind all the usual terms I use to describe him) who does everything he does for the sole purpose of self-aggrandizement.
That’s why I can understand why he is running again even though I don’t believe there is anything noble about his motivation … he is running again solely for the sake of his own ego … for him it’s just another “deal” he has to “win” to avoid yet another failure.
You think my perspective derives solely from being brain-washed by the MSM and Trump’s enemies … on the contrary, I just have to watch him and listen to him and form my own opinions.
I think your self-aggrandisement-only perspective is over the top, yes.
But can you answer this: if he’s such a dufus, why has there been such a concerted effort – from before he was even sworn in – to kick him out and why is there such extensive institutional backing for that attempt? Do you think it’s all theatre? (definitely possible in this Reality TV Republic environment).
Maybe he’s no angel. But my sense is that the ones who have been trying to bring him down are FAR worse than he, and the endless focus on all his shortcomings is buying into their agenda because it puts all the attention on him via character assassination.
Frankly, if he was so selfish, why would he be doing this, risking so much?
If he is so incompetent, how has he managed to remain in office so long and is even now mounting a (too little too late) counterpunch?
My objection to the fixation on Trump is that it is buying into a deliberate campaign of deception by deflection. I really don’t think he is all that important, but his office is, and the way treason has been committed and backed by so many citizens heralds the end of the Republic essentially. Some damage cannot be repaired. I think the US has now passed the point of no return. And this too has nothing to do with Trump’s character.
RE: “if he’s such a dufus, why has there been such a concerted effort – from before he was even sworn in – to kick him out “
Why would any nation (world!) want a dufus holding the highest office in the land that might still be “the most militarily powerful” on the planet?
RE: “But my sense is that the ones who have been trying to bring him down are FAR worse than he”
You say things like that repeatedly but rarely if ever enumerate your reasons other than they are trying to bring him down.
RE: “Frankly, if he was so selfish, why would he be doing this, risking so much?”
I think I’ve answered that numerous times … with it all boiling down to “he is running again solely for the sake of his own ego … for him it’s just another “deal” he has to “win” to avoid yet another failure.”
RE: “If he is so incompetent, how has he managed to remain in office so long”
Since all it takes to remain in office is avoiding unambiguously impeachable offenses, I think you’ve set that bar awfully low.
RE: “and the way treason has been committed and backed by so many citizens “
Again with the sweeping generalizations and quite ironic given the way Trump has repeatedly (at minimum tried to) run roughshod over the Constitution whenever the limitations on his power and authority are so galling to him and his expressed sense that his tyrannical pals in China and Russia and N.Korea should be the model for his Presidency.
RE: “Some damage cannot be repaired. I think the US has now passed the point of no return.”
I suppose that depends on exactly what you think the US needs to return to …
RE: “And this too has nothing to do with Trump’s character.”
You might want to consider the very real possibility that the way to drive any swinging pendulum in a particular direction with more speed and power — maybe even eventually “past the point of no return” — is to pull it back to it’s very limit in exactly the other direction and then give a push …
Some would say we got Trump because of Obama … that we got Obama because of Bush … etc. etc. Now it remains to be seen what we end up getting because of Trump … And I’m sure you recognize the sense among many than the only “safe” government in this country any more is one rendered as ineffectual as possible by never allowing any “side” to reach the point that overwhelms the “checks and balances” that enable “gridlock”. Reaction to Trump might end up being the cause of the very bad scenario of “the end of gridlock”.
“You say things like that repeatedly but rarely if ever enumerate your reasons other than they are trying to bring him down.”
The concerted effort by the previous administration to poison this Presidency is treason writ large. I don’t discount this as some sort of cute political partisan gamesmanship like those disparaging Trump – like you – have to do to make your case.
The treason perpetrated against him by so many for so long is a game changer. Those actions are far more significant and damaging than anything stylistically off-putting Trump has done. It is the defining dynamic of his Presidency and yet it is the work of anyone but Trump. Trump’s Presidency doesn’t have nearly as much to do with him – as I keep saying – as his detractors keep ignoring because those detractors are in denial about the depth of the dirty tricks their side has been perpetrating against this individual, his Office and their own country. It is truly despicable. I don’t know how any honest, honourable person can even countenance anyone on the opposite side any more after the treason they have deliberately perpetrated and continue to this day to support.
I recommend Hanson’s appraisal of Trump. Yes, he is biased. But he also knows his stuff.
Again with repeated assertions of “treason” … which you define as the depth of the dirty tricks their side has been perpetrating against this individual, his Office and their own country”
The article lists a whole lot of “dirty tricks” (eye of the beholder) … Yes, this is surely the only round of “dirty tricks” that has ever been undertaken against any President … Well, maybe not the only … But certainly the most intense … Funny how that “swinging pendulum” works when there is shoving from both sides.
It all qualifies as “treason” how?
The article talks about how Trump is a “fighter” not afraid of getting down and dirty when the opponents do. One might want to examine the history to see exactly who it was that initiated the inexorable pendulum swings to ever downer and ever dirtier …
You seem to want me to admire one filthy side of the filthy “coin” as it does battle against the other side of the same filthy “coin” … sorry, they are both mammon serving mammon..
Your site was very “interesting” … Now here’s a “crew” not bothered in the least by any economic downturn … Is this what we need to return to before we pass the point of no return?
Please tell us what we need to return to and when you think we were there previously?
“Please tell us what we need to return to and when you think we were there previously?”
There you got me!
As to treason: falsely accusing a Candidate and then President of treason, falsely accusing his NSA of a crime, obstructing the President in so many ways, coordinating treasonous (and often false) leaks from USG inc. those in WH with compliant press, many of whom work for the MIC/IC and I could go on.
You call them ‘dirty tricks’ I call them ‘treason.’ For you, they are insignificant, for me they are a game changer. People have different points of view. That’s life.
Which other administration are you aware of that led a three+ year campaign to destroy their successor’s Presidency and person using IC/DOJ personnel inc. hundreds of ‘contractors’ (inc. many in Brennan’s firm) to do so? Am not aware of any (except the two FBI men in on the Watergate burglary in order to help frame Nixon, come to think of it, but that was second term stuff, not before he was even sworn in for the first time!)
RE: “As to treason: falsely accusing a Candidate and then President of treason”
You do recall that Trump was a major, outspoken, very public proponent of the “birther” theory regarding Obama?
You do recall that Trump suggested all the Democrats were guilty of treason for not applauding his State of the Union address?
You’ve never been aware of any “leaks” problem with any prior administration?
RE: “obstructing the President in so many ways”
Are you referring to the many times Trump has suggested he has “powers” that let him do what he wants to do and members of both parties reminded him forcefully that he has no such “powers” under the Constitution?
Honestly, you seem to think that the Trump years is the first time that all sorts attacks and counter-attacks in both directions have ever occurred. I’m not denying it has been a non-stop clown show all around, but to deny that Trump has been one of the clowns is ludicrous.
I’m talking about treason.
You’re answering with political talking point chatter.
Many of the perpetrators should get the chair.
None of them will.
Your Republic is pretty much toast.
Good luck with it!
And it’s because too many people, for petty reasons, are refusing to take their rights and responsibilities and nation seriously and are more interested in scoring cheap points.
RE: “I’m talking about treason”
NO, you are talking about issues that YOU call treason, not issues that conform to the actual definition of treason … “Treason against the United States shall consist ONLY in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort. “
So be very careful about how you want to twist “adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort.” to make it apply to the issues you always mention because (1) it’s talking about enemies of the United States not political enemies of Trump (2) once you start saying things like “the Dems are giving the Chinese aid and comfort!” the other side simply chimes in with “Trump is giving Putin/the Russians aid and comfort!”
And with the recent result of the UN vote against the US in the matter of Iran, Trump can be considered to definitely have given aid and comfort to Iran, clearly an enemy of the United States.
So lets conclude that the “adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort.” had better consist of more than just internal political battling that can be construed as making our enemies delighted that we’re so busy fighting among ourselves that it is an advantage to them. Because by that definition you’d be hard-pressed to find any politician who doesn’t do that on a regular basis.
RE: “Your Republic …” … hmmmm? … again has me wondering whether BaronAsh is actually Baron Conrad Black.
Since I’m no lawyer I sought some information on “treason”
https:// www . criminaldefenselawyer . com/resources/treason.htm
Two Types of Treason
There are two ways to commit treason: levying war against the government, and providing aid or comfort to the enemy.
Levying War
Levying war isn’t limited to formally declaring war. It includes any forcible opposition to the execution of a public law. Such “forcible opposition” ordinarily requires actual use of force by multiple people with the common purpose of preventing some law from being enforced. Weapons aren’t always required; sheer numbers can be enough.
Merely conspiring to overthrow the government isn’t levying war—there must be an actual assemblage of people who are ready and intend to use force. (But see “Related Crimes,” below.) So, no person acting alone can be guilty of levying war.
Providing Aid or Comfort
Providing aid or comfort to the enemy covers a variety of actions, from providing financial assistance to harboring an enemy soldier. Any intentional act that furthers the enemy’s hostile designs or weakens the United States gives aid and comfort to, and “adheres to,” the enemy.
Sympathy alone. Sympathy for the enemy by itself doesn’t constitute aiding or comforting. Rather, the actor must take some kind of action to provide aid or comfort.
/****************************************************************************
Time of war. Treason by aiding the enemy can’t be committed during peacetime; there must be an actual enemy for the traitor to aid. The requisite enemy designation typically requires a formal declaration of war.
/****************************************************************************
Attempt. Someone can be convicted of treason even if the attempt to aid isn’t successful or the enemy’s goal isn’t achieved.
That was all good. There’s another parallel charge which would qualify, which is sedition. However, what is it if you work with foreign intelligence agencies to bring down your own government? What is it if you are coordinating with CCP right now to win the current election?
You might have a point that the attempted coup against this President doesn’t meet the exact legal definition of treason, but it reaches the dictionary definition, and most certainly is sedition.
The bottom line: you don’t regard what has happened as serious because Trump is such a narcissist that whatever is done against him is justified. I understand this position.
I just think it’s unprincipled, despicable and if enough people feel that way – which it seems they do – any chance of maintaining a well-functioning Republic is long gone, since too many are unwilling to respects its core tenets, either in spirit or law.
It’s all over bar the shouting.
Yours,
Happy Expat!
Sedition … Espionage … there are other crimes that people can be guilty of that do not qualify as treason.
Sedition was what the founding fathers engaged in in their rebellion against England. John Adams signed the Alien and Sedition Acts making it illegal to “write, print, utter, or publish . . . any false, scandalous and malicious writing or writings” against the president and other executive branch officials. Donald Trump has frequently suggested he would be in favor of similar laws … given the impression e would love to use executive orders in that regard.
You might even recall this statement of Abraham Lincoln … “This country, with its institutions, belongs to the people who inhabit it. Whenever they shall grow weary of the existing government, they can exercise their constitutional right of amending it, or exercise their revolutionary right to overthrow it.”
“or exercise their revolutionary right to overthrow it.” sure sounds like sedition or treason, doesn’t it? Yet Lincoln says that is their right. Agree or disagree, it illustrates the basic idea that one person’s “freedom fighter” is another person’s “terrorist”, or one guilty of sedition.
John Adams also wrote this: “Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious People. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.”
And no, I do not justify any actions against Trump merely because I find his personality and demeanor and many of his attitudes and words loathsome. It is because he is dishonest and a liar and a self-dealer to the core and because some of his ACTIONS gave opportunity for attacks that might not have had sufficient evidence for conviction but they definitely had sufficient evidence to pursue.
Previously I asked you: “Please tell us what we need to return to and when you think we were there previously?”
And all you could respond with was “There you got me!”
Is it that you are unwilling to say that you want to return to the time when the nation’s elite could continually seize more and more wealth and power under their belief that the country BELONGS to them (because they effectively “own” it) and everyone else is just a “human resource” useful only to make that happen … and nobody else would raise a peep about it or even notice? Or would you like a return to kings and queens and dukes and earl and barons … maybe even robber barons (who have never actually gone away)?
I take it from all your replies that you approve of using the USG intelligence services, in collusion with their MSM imbeds and foreign intelligence services to craft false accusations in order to effect the removal of the elected President or otherwise hamper his ability to fulfil his oath of office as the Chief Executive of the Administration of the USG, to also go after many of his associates whilst proactively covering up many crimes of their own, and that all this is really no big deal, just typical dirty tricks, and that the use of words like ‘treason’ or ‘sedition’ is simply inappropriate.
Fair enough.
As I said: the Republic is toast.
What will happen if/when there is a face-to-face debate with millions of voters watching? I expect the DNC will replace Biden rather than crash and burn.
Biden is gaffe-prone, always has been. But like most Democratic leading pols he speaks good English. His speech today was well delivered. For some reason I cannot fathom, Republican leaders tend to mangle the language. Both Bushes. Trump – who is persuasive emotively but grammatically and otherwise bizarro. Clinton was a super-speaker, making you feel like for the first time deep political issues really made sense and really were about you and your life. Obama was similarly gifted as a candidate, but once in office became a very distant, and clearly very nasty, inside operator. He still sounds good, although nowadays he hasn’t anything uplifting to say.
I don’t think Biden will do as badly as everyone says – if he does debate at all, or does make it through to the election. The expectations are so low in any case that if he doesn’t dribble or fall over he should be fine. He’s a media construct anyway. If Trump tries to fluster him, he’ll look like a bully. Whatever happens, the media will give Biden a win. If he does poorly, Trump bullied him. If he does well, the election is in the bag.
But the fact is, he speaks very well. Even if he is a total phony and a crook. I suspect the main reason he’s running is to stay out of jail.
True. Recall how Ross Perot (or was it his running mate?) bombed with his flaky “ship of sailors” metaphor around 1992. Debates can kill you. Three months is a long time as BaronAsh says. And even Nate Silver says Trump has a 30% chance of winning. Recall BrExit was thought to have no chance of passing, yet it did. Trump, as I said before, is IMO (as a Toastmaster myself who has given many a speech) actually quite a good speaker (folksy, ‘man-of-the-street’ demeanor).
I hate to say it, but we might get four more years of Trump. In which case, thank term limits.
Oh, I agree he’s a great speaker. He’s sort of a gut guy, a charismatically persuasive speaker. He makes his audience believe they are part of something special. Voters/followers need to feel they are part of a historic moment. He also clearly enjoys life, people and has a sense of humour. Makes all other politicians look like stiffs and phonies – which they are.
But he does mangle the language. When you hear a Biden, an Obama (sometimes not always of late), Clinton (both) or Michelle, they speak good storybook English.
I watched Michelle give her tired, disingenuous ‘we go high’ number tonight. On the one hand these guys are fomenting violence in the street and suburbs and that guy in Portland(?) kicked in the head just died from it, and her husband led an effort to sabotage his successor in what should be the greatest political scandal in US history and earn him the chair, whilst on the other they talk about how Trump is divisive and they ‘go high.’ I have rarely seen such shameless hypocrisy in all my life. These people are dangerously demented. And wicked.
Biden and Harris = Obama and Biden, same platform = a disaster for our country.
Trump thinks he can pull an Obama ie not getting much done,not getting really anything accomplished cept a crapload of red ink,then pretend your way to a 2nd 4 year tour.Being incompetent and black is not nearly the same as being incompetent and white!
Nate Silver was wrong last time. He will be wrong again.
Most people don’t think that there will be an election at all. In Trump’s second term the blue states will secede under Chinese protection. Russia will take over the red states. Game over! Thanks for playing!
Why do I know you’re wrong in your “analysis”? You didn’t even list the BIGGEST reason Trump won in 2016 – Trump voters, like Brexit voters and so many others around the world, have reached their limit with the establishment. It’s the anti-establishment movement that got Trump elected – and this movement gets stronger everyday with each desperate action taken by govt to retain their jobs, perks, and power.
I’m certainly not a fan of the way Trump has caved to the billionaires and psycho Central Planers over the Covid response. Anyone with a brain knows there are ulterior motives behind keeping the economy shut down, and it has NOTHING to do with protecting people or making sure there are enough ICU beds. Good God – the global death rate is 0.04%, with 80% over 65% and the majority of cases isolated to prisons and nursing homes. Never in the history of man have healthy people been shut down. What would you do if leprosy broke out again? Shut down the world and make it a giant leper colony.
Why is no one investigating Gates or Fauci, who gets most of his money from Gates (Gates is also the single biggest donor to the CDC, GAVI, and the other entities in his supply chain to vaccinate the world and zero CO2)? The answer of course is easy – no one in the establishment seldom gets investigated, much less goes to jail.
A private party is the largest donor to govt agencies and no one seems to care. Why?link to armstrongeconomics.com.
Luckily, just like with global temperatures, which all polls would say the people think will rise forever because of man, the polls for the election are equally meaningless, unless you think they will influence Trump supporters to stay home, which they most certainly won’t.
Global temps stopped rising a decade ago and will be descending into another cooling minimum no matter what man does or people “think”. You can continue screaming from the mountaintop that Trump will loose, but the “deplorable’s” have not yet sung. However, one thing is certain. no matter who wins the election, the loser will not accept the results, which of course is why gun and ammo sales are soaring.
The anti-establishment cares much more about liberty than death for the simple reason that Leftist useful idiots care more about safety than freedom.
No conventions yet, no debates yet, Joe hasn’t even come out of his basement yet.
God only knows how much further he has deteriorated while down there.
Way, way too early to be making these kinds of predictions.
You are publicly backing the loser, and it will stay on the internet forever.
Still whining about losing.
The election has not even begun. When the commercials begin, the Democrats will be eviscerated. They will not be able to separate themselves from the riots, murders, Antifa, and BLM. They will be associated with the destruction of our National Monuments, the destruction of our cities, de-funding police, and the chaos that American’s hate.
Joe Biden will be entangled in the Congressional subpoena on how his son’s corruptly enriched himself, with his fathers blessing by using his fathers office. Now throw in all the commercials showing Biden’s many public gaffs and hate filled insults hurled at people for simply asking him questions and the public will get a whole new point of view of Mr. Biden. And we have not even started on his communist VP pick…….
Trump will win in 2020 for five reasons.
Trump is a known risk….
It is proven nonsense to say people hate Joe more than Trump
Trump and Hillary were the most despised politicians ever.
I will let this nonsense slide – about once more
I have several times posted about how Trump is getting killed in the enthusiasm gap, not because they like Biden but because they cannot stand Trump
Biden is not despised – Trump is
Depending on the individual, Biden is either pitied, the butt of a joke, mistaken for Walter the dummy, or hated by the women he molested. Harris is hated, at least by the blacks and brown’s she imprisoned. On the flip side, Trump has women that hate his fowl language, but they don’t have time to understand his policies because they are too busy reading 50 Shades of Grey.
I agree that Biden is not despised. The problem for him is that this race will be framed as electing Kamala for president, given Biden’s cognitive issues. You might be surprised how much she is despised by election day. The actual progressive left already can’t stand her and with her record there is something for practically everyone (besides the Blue MAGA crowd) to not like about her.
Keep drinking the Kool Aid.
Most swing voters, who by their very nature tend to be less interested in politics than most, don’t even know “Joe and Kamila.”
But they do know Trump. And he hasn’t exactly impressed with his handling of the main issue of the day: Covid.
Back when noone really knew Trump; he won because people did know Hillary, and didn’t trust nor like her. And now, Biden will win. Not because people like him, but simply because most don’t know enough about him to dislike him to the extent they, after four years of getting to know him, dislike Trump.
I still suspect this election is one where uncertainties are high enough that Trump could hit a last week-to-month homer, or Biden an own goal, big enough for it all to swing back to Trump again. Not sure what that could be, but there are an awful lot of Americans who, while they may not like Trump and the GOP, are more fundamentally worried about what the democrats, possibly with majorities in both houses, can manage to “accomplish.” Obama’s famous “elections have consequences” quip, scared the heck out of a lot of people who don’t particularly like the consequences he referred to.
I have a prediction on what will happen on or near election day and after for Trump to stay in office:
Putin has already started again:
great credible link, when you have nothing else to say there’s always Russia
A surrogate on the news billing Harris as a co-President. That got shot down by Michael Steele. This is the big fear. Can Harris stay in the VP lane. Its am important lane but it’s not President. This is something I’m going to watch
I think those states you put in Trump column could easily swing to Biden because of Harris and higher African-American turnout. Women will also have higher turnout. Trump didn’t even get the most votes in 2016. He happen to win because he flipped about 10 critical voting districts that Obama won in 2012. Those voters are independents and they are tired of Trump by a large margin. Harris is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. Trump will likely be prosecuted after he loses the election and flee to Russia or some other country that will protect him.
tRump will likely flee to China! Social media in China and China hands in the US call tRump the secret agent of China in the american establishment. Think about it: the best weapon China has in its competition with the US is tRump!
Trump will migrate to TV and social media. Long rumored to be his next thing. Trump has burned his britches when it comes to selling real estate. Hell in NY and elsewhere if anything the Trump name has come down
He is Russia’s most useful idiot.
The Democratic Party is Russia’s most useful idiot.
China/Russia are now a formidable team, while the Democratic Party tears down America, benefiting them.
I’d say you’re on the money Mish. I relate to the commenters who said nothing will get a whole lot better just because we have a changing of the guard….but I do think Mr. Trump lacks respect for our political process and the US Constitution…which is all we ever really had to make us any greater than anywhere else. I don’t want to see the Republic destroyed by someone who puts his own interests above those of the country. For that reason I will hold my nose and vote for Biden and Harris, neither of whom I like. I’m a long time fan (a decade maybe) and this is my first comment, I think. I appreciate your views…and not just because I’m always 100% in agreement. Thanks for all your do.
It really isn’t going to make any difference who is elected as the next President . . . there is just too many problems to fix and no real desire to fix them . . . Good Luck !
Have to agree with you. This country deserves to see a significant improvement in the quality of presidential candidates that are put forward.
Trump won by such narrow margins in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2016. It’s highly unlikely the strong Democrat parties in those states aren’t energized right now and aren’t going to have some of the best get out the vote efforts we have ever seen. Clearly, they understand the impact of their failures in 2016…
These three states were always going to be tough for Trump to win without a polarizing figure like Hillary and some help from James Comey.
Some people didn’t vote in those states because they THOUGHT Hilary would win. They won’t get burned again in 2020 and will actually show up in huge numbers.
we’ll see. i doubt it.
The Commiecrates chance is zero percent after last weekend’s executive butt kicking. By the way,I don’t think America is ready for a President Kamala.
I still think DJT has a puncher’s chance (40%?).
If stock market continues relentless upward surge
If Second Wave does not show pre election
There will be 3 face to face debates. I expect DJT to clean his clock (sure, fact checking will reveal DJT making many mistakes, but he’s a in the gutter bully tailor made for debating where optics matter most)… also, I think Biden will at points end up stammering or have brain freeze (ie: looking OLD).
No way Trump can overcome his track record of the past 4 years. No amount of deodorant can overcome the stench of his presidency. Even his own Republican Party members are holding their collective noses.
“Even his own Republican Party members are holding their collective noses.”
…
No more than in 2016.
Undecideds will vote their wallet. Stock market up. DJT wants to cut payroll tax.
Not saying he will win. But certainly not dismissive of his chances.
There are only 10% undecided and they aren’t going to determine the winner. In fact I would say as time goes by there will be less undecideds. Trump’s only chance is to cheat. Like he has done his entire life. This time he won’t get away with it.
Signed,
A 2016 Trump Voter
I would say much more than in 2016. Mitch has even gone as far as to give the ok to candidates to distance themselves from Trump. When has that ever happened before in a presidential election year? Even his own party can’t stand him.
“I would say much more than in 2016.”
…
How so?
In 2016 hardly any Republicans would be seen at his campaign stops.
I remember one of the early primary debates when there were still 9 or 10 Republican candidates. The audience was hand picked by establishment Republicans (no Trump supporters). ALL the other candidates ganged up on DJT. The moderator – Megyn Kelly – even went after him with a power point presentation on Trump University.
The only reason he ran as an R was because he saw what happened to Perot and mocking the likes of JEB! made for great entertainment.
You are deranged if that is what you believe.
Answer the question.
I learned long ago that someone who could not make a valid argument resorts to going “personal”.
Don’t be THAT person.
Hey, I have told you that as a russian troll you cannot just come here to attack people without even a glancing not to making an argument. From now on you will be reported.
Firstly I am not a Russian troll. Secondly, the response of “ In 2016 hardly any Republicans would be seen at his campaign stops” was just so absurd it did not merit a response. I suppose it was all Democrats at his 2016 campaign stops cheering him on wildly? The hardly any Republicans at his campaign stops in 2020 is another matter. And finally in the primary debates it is commonplace to pile on to attacks of the other Republican candidates. I would hardly suggest that a 2016 primary debate is evidence that Republicans were self distancing from Trump.
“In 2016 hardly any Republicans would be seen at his campaign stops” was just so absurd it did not merit a response.”
…
This is wrong. I watched quite a few of DJT (and HRC) campaign stops on C-SPAN. The difference couldn’t have been starker. HRC’s overflowing with local / state (D) dignitaries. DJT often had NONE.
Sometimes, silence is the best course of action.
I do not think the towering rise of the stock market is going to be in the GOP’s favor at all. There are more people with zero income now than there are sharing in the fabulous riches of the equity markets. A stock market screaming higher only helps when we have full employment to go with it. All it is going to do is send the signal that greed and crime pay and that if you are not in on the money you simply don’t matter. By November I say we will be really close to a historic wipeout along the lines of FDR’s win in 1930. And with a mandate to do whatever it takes to take the rich down a number of pegs.
“If stock market continues relentless upward surge” is meaningless if you:
don’t have a job
can’t buy food
can’t pay rent or mortgage
don’t have medical insurance
True, but better than a market crash, no?
The market seems so fake to me from a presidential standpoint. Trump didn’t build it. It has been pumped up with all sorts of QE dumps by the Fed, and a majority of the wealth from the market comes from five companies. In the end, it’s not a true reflection of people’s budgets at home.
It’s not meaningless at all.
Instead, the rise has been bought specifically with purchasing power stolen from you, which you could otherwise buy food with. As well as with purchasing power stolen from your potential employer, who could otherwise hire you.
Pumping up the value of “assets”, does not create any new wealth. Hence, by arithmetic necessity, every penny of wealth the pumping hands to those owning said “assets”, have to be stolen from those who don’t.
Wealth transfers to idle leeches, by way of asset appreciation, is exactly why there is no longer a middle class, and why there are fewer and fewer internationally competitive American companies able to pay employees decent wages.
So it’s not meaningless at all.
Most people aren’t going to feel the benefits of the stock market at home and in their banking accounts.
I’m only concerned about undecideds.
I did not realize you were referencing Republican Party dignitaries. Regardless, when has a standing President’s own Senate Majority leader ever given the ok to candidates to distance themselves from the president? This takes it to a whole new level.
Trump’s only chance is Russia hacking the election and making the power grid go down. I fully expect this on or near election day. Trump will try to suspend the election and declare a national emergency.
A month prior to 2016 election –
I banned Montana33 for saying this: “Mish would not call a white, male Senator with the exact same resume as Kamala an opportunist. He is biased against women and/or women of color and he probably has no idea.”
In addition, I removed every comment he ever made (in progress – It may take a while but is automatic). I will not tolerate such accusations.
I do not have the time to sort through everything such idiots have ever said.
For the record, I praised Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms
Good Riddance to Montana33 – I give a lot of leeway, not that.
Harris is a “nauseating opportunist” and I will prove it in a followup post given many questioned my use of the word “nauseating”.
Very similar to Corey Booker , but in fairness Trump is of the same mold. All grandstanders. That’s why I preferred Rice
Why did you choose nauseating of all words ? Do you really get nauseous when you see/hear about Harris being the VP pick ?
Two words. Willie Brown.
Every day from here on out until election night MISH will desperately PUMP out how TRUMP will LOSE articles…
A National Lockdown Could Be The Economy’s Best Hope, Says Minneapolis Fed President
These sick statist bastards would like us never to enjoy freedom again.
you got that right
I propose that Kashkari go eff himself in lockdown for 6 weeks. Hoping that will save the rest of us from his unhinged BS
THE ELECTION IS OVER. YOU LOST.
The election is already over. We will spend more on war. More on zombie corporations. More to lobbyists. More to the rich. We will continue illegally occupying countries and invading new ones. More on treating Americans like they, too, are a conquered people to be watched over and lied to.
Either trump or biden has already won. How did they win? For the past year, all media aligned with the state told you who was electable. You accepted it.
Now, go complete your performance in the farce — by voting on election day.
Excellent Comment!
THE ELECTION IS OVER. YOU LOST.
Did you vote in the primary? If you didn’t you got the candidate you deserve
I voted for Klobuchar
Nowadays, what self-respecting, intelligent person would want to run for president? Damned if you do anything, and damned if you don’t; both sides constantly trying to destroy or take advantage; not to mention the misuse of government office for political purposes. And lets not forget the government employees (roaches), overpaid and underworked, who believe they run the place.
This is probably the best comment I will read all day. Reminds me of George Carlin’s wisdom. Garbage in. Garbage out.
Part II: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtSv3x6lh3o&t=6s
“It’s a big club, and you ain’t in it.” — George Carlin
“If voting could change the system, it would be illegal.” — Emma Goldmann
Political change is only possible through direct action. Google Gene Sharp.
Some of us are used to it. I know I’ve lost every election since I can remember!
I did not favor Kamala Harris being the VP pick but I think she’s the person Trump lest wanted. If Trump wanted to paint the progressive label on Biden then the best VP pick would have been Warren the clear progressive and Rice would have made a great Bhengazi target. While I don’t think Harris makes for the best VP I think she gives Trump the biggest problem. She’s also good on social media at a time when in person campaigning is not an option. She’s purportedly good on zoom and social media
I always recognize this. Back when Klobuchar would have been the best on the electoral map helping with the mid-west. Rice has the most ability with her foreign policy and national experience. She’s just never campaigned before.
Disagree – She will hurt in White potential tipping point states.
Someone like Klobuchar might have swung Iowa, Ohio etc, without hurting elsewhere.
The surrogates worked overtime on this one for sure. I can’t recall a previous election where surrogates campaigned harder. I don’t buy many of the arguments made but Biden clearly did. I think there were threats made by multiple parties suggesting reduced turnout if the wrong vp choice was made.
the vp picks were mostly black. warren woul have hurt more.
Would adding JB Pritzker better balance the ticket?
Easy to take down Harris with ads about her family running a slave farm in Jamaica. “Worse than Southern slave owners’…. Quotes from her father’s essay. Flash a few words like ‘hypocrite’ and ‘opportunist’, and then tell her ride-the-bus story etc.
Biden’s problem begins with pandering. If he wins, will he continue to pander? This country is in dire need of leadership that can unify and generate innovation. Unfortunately, both president- and vice president candidates fail miserably.
I find it funny what Trump began attacking her on which is already got the #MAGA cultists cheering. Muh straws…
Of course, Trump has done some banning himself. Gun Owners of America took him to court over one of his bans.
Will she be part of those paying reparations for her family lineage ties to slave ownership?
So why would he not pick a more moderate running mate. Seems like he’s asking for a confrontation.
Harris is not progressive.. Look at her record as A.G. Warren was the progressive.
Here comes our democrat shill right on time with all the answers just not the right ones
Harris is not a true progressive, but she is considered way left of Biden.
Thank you … and by whom?