Bloomberg Dropped Out

The Wall Street Journal reports Biden, Sanders Look to Next Contests as Bloomberg Exits.

A string of Super Tuesday victories for Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders’s win in California narrowed the Democratic nomination contest to essentially a two-person race and set up a potentially long and bruising presidential primary fight.

One by one, the former vice president’s moderate rivals have fallen away and endorsed him, including former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg on Wednesday, whose personal fortune proved not enough to net him any significant wins. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who placed third in her home state Tuesday, was assessing her next move Wednesday, according to her campaign manager, who said she needed “time and space.”

About Mr. Biden, Mr. Bloomberg said, “I’ve known Joe for a very long time. I know his decency, his honesty, and his commitment to the issues that are so important to our country—including gun safety, health care, climate change, and good jobs.”

About half of Democratic primary voters in Virginia and Oklahoma said they made their decision within the past few days, and Mr. Biden won roughly six in 10 of those voters in both states.

What Happens to Those Delegates?

Buttigieg dropped out, Bloomberg dropped out, and Klobuchar dropped out.

Technically those delegates have a "free" vote. However, in the case of an endorsement, the delegates are supposed to honor the wishes of the person who dropped out.

So, mentally put the delegates of Bloomberg , Buttigieg, and Klobuchar into Biden's camp.

What About California?

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California May Take a Week to Count

California is still counting and perhaps will be for days, or longer.

The WSJ reports 89.9% reporting in California with Sanders at 33.6% and Biden at 24.9%.

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Those numbers are horribly misleading.

Why? No one knows how many mail-in votes there were.

I suspect Sanders' percentage will rise and Biden's will drop. Let's call it 35% to 23%. Bloomberg is totaling about 14%. He will get some but not many of the delegates. Currently he is assigned 14 and Warren 9.

Based on these totals, I expect Bernie to win about 55% of the Delegates and Biden about 37%. That would be 228 for Bernie and 154 for Biden.

Since 155 delegates are already assigned to Sanders, mentally add another 73 (228-155) delegates to Bernie. And mentally add another 61 (154-93) delegates to Biden.

Guess What?

Add a few more to Bloomberg delegates to Biden's total and guess what?

Sanders will gain no more ground from California.

Looking Ahead

Biden will certainly clobber Sanders in Florida on March 17. Florida has 219 delegates.

Put about 150 of them in Biden's camp. Medicare for all and free education is highly unlikely to resonate in Florida for hopefully obvious reasons.

Georgia has 105 delegates. Give Biden about 70 of those.

And as noted above, mentally put the delegates of Bloomberg , Buttigieg, and Klobuchar into Biden's camp.

If no one walks away with a majority, Biden will have a plurality.

If needed, super delegates will easily put Biden over the top.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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