The Spanish government dissolved the Catalan parliament and arrested many of its leaders following its declaration of independence. Ousted Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont is in exile in Belgium.

Puigdemont faces trumped up charges of rebellion and sedition. It is impossible for Puigdemont to get a fair trial in Spain, and everyone with any bit of honesty or common sense knows just that.

Meanwhile, Catalans head to the polls in regional snap election on December 21. Will the result be any different this time?

Puigdemont Doubles Down

Bloomberg reports Catalan Leader Doubles Down on Independence Pledge.

Puigdemont, who maintains he’s the legitimate regional president after being sacked by the central government, will lead a new platform under the banner of Together for Catalonia. He said on Saturday a victory at the polls on Dec. 21 would serve to ratify his mandate and send a signal to the European Union, which has repeatedly sided with the government of Mariano Rajoy against unilateral attempts for independence.

“The people of Catalonia have shown the world we have the capacity and the will to become an independent state,” Puigdemont told an audience in Bruges, Belgium, where he’s been staying since declaring independence last month. “On Dec. 21, we must ratify that.”

Polls so far show a split Catalan parliament with no obvious majorities. Pro-independence ERC party is predicted to win, replacing Puigdemont’s PDeCAT as the leading separatist force, while pro-union Ciutadans and the Catalan Socialists also would add seats.

Catalan election polls 2017

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The above poll from the Financial Times.

Wikipedia sees things slightly differently.

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Dead Heat?

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Not to fast. ERC still has a lead.

The Financial Times provides this interesting comment: "The unionist parties are so ideologically incompatible it seems unlikely that they would be able to form an administration of their own."

The one thing that united the independence parties was independence.

CatComu/Podemos

CatComu is in coalition with Podemos. CatComu is led by Barcelona mayor Ada Colau. She does not favor independence, but like Podemos, she does favor having a Spanish Government-approved vote on the matter.

Unpredictable Election

I see no particular reason to favor any particular set of polls. If any party sits the election out, they will be immediately disenfranchised.

Expect Things to Simmer

Given the widespread disagreement among the unionists. the separatists appear to have the upper hand in forming a government, even if they fall short of having an outright majority in parliament.

Once again, I am rooting for the separatists based solely on their right of self-determination as opposed to the economic policies they hold.

Expect things to simmer, in one fashion or another, regardless of who wins.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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