Catalonia Si: Separatists Take Slim Lead in Early Poll

This Tweet says it all.

Treat with caution but here is today’s tracking poll from @LaVanguardia. This is not an exit poll. It shows a likely majority for the pro-independence bloc but also Ciudadaons as the biggest individual party. #EleccionesCataluna pic.twitter.com/8RLHlta9Q0

— Tobias Buck (@TobiasBuckFT) December 21, 2017

The Image is from the La Vanguardia article (translated) Ciutadans Would Receive the Most Seats and the Separatists Would Achieve the Majority .

Ciutadans would win the Catalan elections on December 21 and the three independence forces could retain an absolute majority in seats of the Parliament. These are the two main conclusions of the La Vanguardia ballot survey for the decisive Catalan election day. All this with a record participation in a Catalan election at the close of the polling stations: 84%.

The sum of ERC, JxCat and the CUP would retain between 67 and 71 seats, at the threshold of the absolute majority (68).

The exit survey of La Vanguardia has been conducted with 3,200 telephone interviews (50% mobile and 50% fixed) made during the election campaign until 7:00 pm this Thursday. Dynamic sampling with automatic postal code selection based on the vote added in the elections to the Parliament of 2015. Interviews were conducted in 686 of the 1,132 postal codes of Catalonia. Daily compliance of sex quotas and 4 age groups with reponderations between 0.94 and 1.06. Statistical treatment integrating tracking interviews and geographic databases through Tableau.

Much of the vote for Ciutadansis artificial. Nationalists left and right switched their votes to the party simply to block ERC from being the largest party.

Coalition talks will be difficult no matter who wins. A hung parliament is the most likely outcome if the votes are close to the image shown.

Good luck and best wishes to the separatists.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock