Eight Reasons This is Not 2016
A quick check of the calendar says this is 2020. Politically speaking don't expect another 2016 Trumpian replay either.
A quick check of the calendar says this is 2020. Politically speaking don't expect another 2016 Trumpian replay either.
Eight Reasons This is Not 2016
- There are far fewer undecided voters this year. For discussion please see Who are the Undecided Voters and How Many Remain?
- There is no last minute Comey Bombshell (sorry Trump fans, the Hunter Biden Story is Irrelevant)
- Hillary was 2-3% ahead nationally in 2016 but Biden is 8-12% ahead.
- There are more state polls this time.
- In 2016, the state pollsters underweighted uneducated white voters.
- It's likely that pollsters overcompensated for the education gap this time thereby underestimating Biden's lead.
- Hillary was more despised than Trump. Now, Trump is far more despised than Biden.
- The massive amount of early voting is Democratic. These are not "likely voters". They are 100% guaranteed voters. The pollsters are underweighting "guaranteed" voters as "likely" voters. In 2016 a big chunk of these voters sat out the election.
Bonus Reasons
Those who expect a "Bonus Reason" I just happen to have one: Covid Records Shattered In The US and Europe
What About Women and Those Over 65?
Expecting an election replay of 2016 is more than a bit silly.
Mish