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Eight Reasons This is Not 2016

  1. There are far fewer undecided voters this year. For discussion please see Who are the Undecided Voters and How Many Remain?
  2. There is no last minute Comey Bombshell (sorry Trump fans, the Hunter Biden Story is Irrelevant)
  3. Hillary was 2-3% ahead nationally in 2016 but Biden is 8-12% ahead.
  4. There are more state polls this time.
  5. In 2016, the state pollsters underweighted uneducated white voters.
  6. It's likely that pollsters overcompensated for the education gap this time thereby underestimating Biden's lead.
  7. Hillary was more despised than Trump. Now, Trump is far more despised than Biden.
  8. The massive amount of early voting is Democratic. These are not "likely voters". They are 100% guaranteed voters. The pollsters are underweighting "guaranteed" voters as "likely" voters. In 2016 a big chunk of these voters sat out the election.

Bonus Reasons

Those who expect a "Bonus Reason" I just happen to have one: Covid Records Shattered In The US and Europe

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What About Women and Those Over 65?

Expecting an election replay of 2016 is more than a bit silly.