If you do not like my map, you can create your own at 270toWin.
But before you create your own map or ridicule mine, you might wish to look at some current polls, state-by-state.
Pennsylvania
Florida
Michigan
Arizona
North Carolina
Three Crucial Swing States for Trump
- Florida
- North Carolina
- Ohio
Even if Trump wins those states, if the above map holds, Trump loses in November.
Pennsylvania is Key
The biggest swing state headed for Biden is Pennsylvania with 20 Electoral College Votes.
Note that a Fox News poll conducted April 18-21 gives Biden an 8-point lead.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania, he can still lose Virginia and all the states I marked as tossups then still win (270 on the nose).
My map is actually generous to Trump. Mentally I have Florida as slightly leans Biden and Nevada as leans Biden.
Nevada
I discounted Nevada due to lack of recent polls.
If Biden were to win Nevada, then he could lose two out of these three states I have in Biden’s column (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota), again assuming he carries Pennsylvania which is my one key assumption based on the polls.
Virginia
Ohio and What We Don’t Know
I rate Ohio as a tossup due to lack of polls. Ohio is crucial to Trump so mentally move that into his column if you prefer.
Without any polls I suspect Iowa may be in play. And if it turns into a rout, not exactly unlikely, even Texas could be in play for Biden.
Path to Victory
Biden has multiple paths to victory as described above, presuming he wins Pennsylvania which is now my base case.
Trump needs to win all the tossups AND two more states or Pennsylvania. He has an extremely narrow path to victory.
Liberate Michigan
LIBERATE MICHIGAN!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 17, 2020
Michigan
Note that Fox News gives Biden an 8-point lead in Michigan. This is despite (or because) of soaring Michigan unemployment, perhaps as high as 30%.
For details, please see For details, please see Over 25% of Michigan Workforce Filed For Unemployment.
Yet, Despite Massive Unemployment, Michigan Disagrees With Trump.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, has a Covid-19 approval rating of 57%. Liberate Michigan, Liberate Minnesota, and Liberate Virginia backfired.
I discussed the above Tweets in Huge Battle Over Covid-19 Tests and Trump’s Liberation Tweets.
Words of Caution
It’s not impossible for Trump to win in November, but it is difficult.
These polls are early. November is still 6 months away but the election map, Trump’s handing of Covid-19, the recession, and the thought of 4 more years of Trump to swing voters all weigh against Trump.
This is Not 2016
Finally, this is not 2016. Many swing voters gave Trump a nod in in 2016 simply because they despised Hillary.
Many of those same swing voters have had enough of Trump’s divisive treatment of allies, his belittling of everyone but himself, and his handling of Covid-19.
Mish
The truth is the President doesn’t care about poll numbers. He doesn’t care about any numbers except economic numbers. Well the unemployment numbers are getting worse by the moment. So its no surprise that his approval numbers are slipping. If any one thinks that he has done an incredible job especially now, I have a few more numbers. People who have the virus in the United States 1,031,659. People who have died from the virus over 60,057. We hope that numbers mean something on November 3rd. We will see.
When Trump loses Republicans are done. They have lost all credibility. Trump has blown up all there principles, and they all followed along. Debt, Deficits, Trade, Immigration, Build the Wall, Decency, Humility, Honesty. Now all they have is Incompetency!
November is a very long way off . . . never in the history of presidential elections has anything like this occurred . . . too many unknowns . . . but one thing is for sure . . . the country is going to go through a world of hurt before the next president is elected.
Polls at this point in the game are meaningless, as we saw in the last election.
Trump would not be my first choice, for President, but if you look at what he has done in contrast to what he says, he has done a pretty decent job.
The Democrats on the other hand have been a crapshow of hateful intentions and corruption. They have launched one unfounded attack after another instead of addressing the problems that are plaguing our country. They have used this crisis to give Congress a raise, and to support their supporters.
Their Presidential candidate is a addled psychopath who loses his composure and attacks people worse than Trump when challenged. He will not survive the debates or the scrutiny of his actions in or out of office.
In the end, the majority of Americans will hold their nose and vote for Trump, and the Democrats will have another melt down and throw childish tantrums for the next 4 years.
Trump will win PA. Period.
These poll numbers are a complete joke… and then Mish piles-on with garbage emotional/subjective opinions…
Not defending DT here, just pointing out this site’s backslide into TDS irrelevance.
I’m from PA, we are a Dem state especially in presidential elections. Trump barely won last time and that was because Hillary was despised here. We reelected Tom Wolf by a landslide and are on our way to becoming a kool aid drinking state like NY.
Polls mean nothing in June, much less May, even less in April.
The media has yet to credit his leadership for saving millions upon millions of American lives. He was the man in charge through the darkest time in America’s history. Never before were millions of Americans forecasted to die in such a short span. He deserves the credit for the millions of lives saved.
Give it 6 months Covidiots
Fox had Trump losing big in 2016 too so who knows.
Personally, I’m going long popcorn for October/November.
And maybe hedge with some 5.56, 7.62, and 12-00 in December/January…
The main reason Trump is vulnerable is not because of any of your points. Rather, it is fatigue. The unending vitriol from the opposition – and the opposition press – is ugly and toxic. Toxic to the whole country. They can say all they like that it’s because Trump is an idiot, a racist, a bigot and so forth, but really it’s a disgust tactic they have used deliberately to keep a ceiling on his support. It has worked. They will ratchet up the hatred and negativity until the election so that many, especially non-partisan independents, will want to get rid of him so we can go back to ‘normal’ and have a kinder, gentler America again.
Of course that will be a mirage, but the voters may not care. They just can’t stand the constant aggression, anxiety, hatred, ugliness.
Not a great way to win, but as we have seen, treason is no issue for them, lying is no issue for them, decency is no issue for them. They just want to win.
And if the country lets them, then it will deserve all the bad things it will assuredly get.
If you have a booger in your nostril and look in a mirror, do you get upset with the mirror?
George W had the same media on his butt for TWO entire terms, and he stayed lucid, energetic, and calm about it. No tantrums. Very little bragging. No accusations.
Trump is a fat manbaby that started flailing before he was even sworn in, and an embarrassment to the human species.
It’s not “The unending vitriol from the opposition” it’s that Trump continuously steps on his own dick. Every time he opens his mouth. Wait, that’s not completely true, there were a couple of news conferences earlier in the virus crisis where he actually sounded presidential. Then he went back and tweeted something stupid. He just never stops. He can’t stop himself and once his aids leave him alone with the phone the real tiny man comes out. If he was half-way competent I could perhaps look past his defective personality but he’s not, he’s utterly incompetent. He has no idea what he’s doing in this virus situation. He doesn’t have the intellect to even understand it, has a natural inferiority complex about people who do and is hoping for a miracle (if only we could inject….). What you see as constant vitriol is constant drumbeat of people pointing out the constant stream of mistakes and moronic statements he makes. Add to that the self-serving members of his administration who are all pushing their own agendas – white power, free industry to pollute or injure workers, etc., and, well, there’s plenty to complain about. If only he was half-way competent. But he’s not even that.
What does it mean that Americans can choose either Biden or Trump?
Americans are about to reinstate control by the MSM, the deep state, the foreign policy establishment, and the financial elite, again. All the while crowing about how much freedom of choice they have.
Finally some good news.
I think Trump will poll worse in November than he does now. Covid19 is slacking off, so Trumps numbers currently are at a high, but when they accelerate again with cold weather in October, his numbers will fall.
I was quite supportive of Trump in the early days. It seemed half of America was marching about things he had never said or done. However some of the stuff he’s come out with lately is pure stupidity. I think he will be wiped out.
Biden will poop his bed before the election. Can’t wait for the debates.
I want to see the polls after Biden announces his VP choice. If he pulls a McCain, then those numbers could move, perhaps a lot. Biden needs to overcome his apparent senility and get that pick right.
Maybe Sarah Palin is willing to swing the other way for some media exposure.
There will be no election in November. Trump will be proclaimed as Emperor of America by the Republican Senate. America like Rome is finished. Good riddance!
They will keep playing the Dr Brad Fauci video all the way till November. Biden will not convince people. Just leave it to Dr Brad Fauci.
And President Biden, through his superlative, unredoubtable ability will ingeniously find a way to deliver the country from the awful catastrophe that it now faces. Our god-sent savior.
Mmmm – Probably NOT.
If he is elected and actually serves anything close to a full term (not a foregone conclusion), what comes next will TRULY be scary. Or even MUCH worse than that. Be afraid. Be VERY afraid. Dark times lie ahead.
Nope, it’ll be a shitshow no matter what, but it’ll be a good bit less damaging to the American brand that the show we have now.
Politics straight from the streets of New York link to youtube.com
yes, you hate Trump, so completely predictable. Polls mean just about zero this far out. Let’s just wait and see, but no, you are in full TDS, so keep firing. I do enjoy your economic reads, but your politics reads are just not very compelling. Stick to economics.
Mish voted for trump, and stuck up for him a good bit, until trump went completely crazypants.
Trump is a idiot who is bankrupting the country. It’s amazing that you enjoy Mish’s blog but still parrot meaningless drivel like TDS. You clearly don’t understand what you are reading, because if you did you’d know that Trump’s approach to the economy is going to ruin your pocketbook.
I don’t doubt that it’s true Trump has an uphill battle, but I don’t believe the polls. I have so many friends who are seriously convinced that Trump=Hitler, usually for trivial reasons, that I’d never admit that I’d vote for him. I’d prefer Biden but he’s just too old. Also, needing a vagina to be considered for VP goes against my rules. Long story, bottom line is that my hatred of Hillary and her ‘vaginas first’ policies are personal and Uncle Joe loses my vote.
But, I’d never admit that to a pollster or anyone who I’d trust to keep it private. I don’t need the aggravation or to lend data for stereotyping: bigoted white man, ya know.
I wouldn’t object to a woman president who earned it or at least looked capable. No one on that last list this year.
It’s not the “not voting for vaginas” that makes you bigoted. It’s the fact that you think Trump is more qualified than any of the vaginas who ran for president that does.
Think of coronavirus as a test run: Australian military leaders warn we must prepare for worse link to abc.net.au
Why Illinois Is In Trouble – 109,881 Public Employees With $100,000+ Paychecks Cost Taxpayers $14B
Polls mean nothing this far in advance of the election.
Dukakis was leading GHW Bush 17 by percentage points in August 1988. He lost BIG.
SO much could happen between now and election time; I’m not even convinced both candidates at their ages would survive the Coronavirus if they got it.
It is ridiculous to say polls mean nothing.
Ridiculous.
No difference between 75 points ahead and behind? Absurd.
And did you not read my Word of Caution?
These polls are early. November is still 6 months away but the recession, ….
Apparently not
Would you rather be 10 points ahead or behind?
Which is it?
“Facts which contradict my world view don’t matter.”
Every poll heading into the 2016 election had Hillary walking away with it….
I mean – the media and the Democrats were literally DUMBFOUNDED at the results on election night. Hillary wouldn’t even come out of her room!
It was such an anomaly that we got the “screaming Karen” meme, ANTIFA, crazy Shia Lebouf, all kinds of conspiracy theories, and a waste of money investigation into how the election was stolen or influenced or whatever…
We got all that because everyone thought the polls meant something. But at the end of the day, the polls meant nothing.
The election – on the other hand – meant everything.
OK, fair point. April polls for a Presidential election don’t mean nothing, but they don’t mean very much either. Of course one would rather have better poll numbers than worse.
I get your point, that Biden is in much better position than Trump right now, today. It would take a significant event or series of significant events to change that. But in today’s environment, I expect a number of crazy things to happen between now and November. Who would have thought that barrels of oil could sell for negative amounts, or that 26 million people would become unemployed in the space of four weeks?!
The only thing I can say with certainty about this election is that someone of dubious intelligence and integrity will get elected.
In fairness, I do recall Mish calling the election for Trump in 2016 WAY before anyone else…
Me too – but the polls showed the exact opposite.
In other words, they meant nothing.
Good analysis.
Florida will go Trump. The pollsters are not getting a good reflection of the state overall. This is sounding a lot like 2016 again and we haven’t even had a debate!
Older voters are starting to turn against Trump. Biden is much more appealing to them than Sanders. This is bad news for Trump in Florida.
Could be don’t really talk to many older voters…. wait a minute I am one..lol
I don’t see reality in any of your story points. I am married to a minority from a former Socialist government led country. She knows of the ‘disappearance’ of government opposition. I have a business that puts me in contact with a wide socio-economic and diverse ethnic group of clients and customers. I have been doing this business for over 32 years. Prior to that, similar pattern of relationships within the engineering and commercial construction industry. I am unafraid to engage in topics with those having a variety of opinions and backgrounds. I don’t know what is right for everyone but I do know I find a commonality amongst a high majority of the persons I described earlier. There is definitely a positive slant in the role this President is offering than the media and often the comments displayed following such stories. It appears this is backed with a lot of facts showing the electoral college predictions. From what I hear in the streets, the offices and at dinner. This President will be around again. The previous President has been bashed in conversations with many of my friends and acquaintances as having been a “phony”, “the worst thing that could have happened to African Americans”, things along that line. I offer up that he had a grand opportunity to create a bond within America to bridge the racial divide. But he seems to have missed the chance because of his Forceful and Biased Identity politics. I feel like his 8 years provided a megaphone to the LabelCrat dimension of the Democratic party. And it stood out front and stoked the fire of division that actually helped deliver Donald Trump because the previous 8 years were filled with “guilting” of millions of American citizens that never caused 1 minute of racial discourse during their whole lives. They were merely labeled as being so by their opposition to something that Obama chose to support or were watching the Constitution being threatened by the obvious executive order policies and social element where the rallying cry was “its not your fault, your choices have nothing to do with the position you are in at this point in your life. We can do it better and solve it through taxes. Just let us lift some dollars from the 1 Percenters. They will not mind at all. If they do they are RACIST, CAPITALISTS, etc”.
I know a lot of screaming people were surprised when Trump was elected president. I was too, never thought it would happen. But this time around if I compare him to this person that is being babied over his Tara, sexual abuse scandal, Biden. I see a less savvy politician than Hillary, who has but a dollop of mental capacity remaining, probably rivaled by his amount of integrity. Just don’t see him having a chance. As I hear out here in this real world that I have been in communication with on a daily basis. I know people with their own opinions, their own problems, their own concerns and I have yet to hear one person mention that Biden is going to be the one to help them achieve their goals in any possible way. Self-reliance is a great tool to keep Socialism at bay. One man’s actions and reactions to how the media wants to shape an argument against him and how the same media protects and coddles another Politician are what we as citizens should oppose. We should ask for and expect a media to lay out the facts, and allow us to vote on facts and how the Candidates offer their potential resolutions to our current and future issues. This distortion likely began during the Camelot years when the media were enthralled with the Kennedys and they have reached out for that next famous couple to be in the White House. If Trump can ask the Media to remain honest then they will in turn expect him to be also and pound him into place just as we can at the Polling Booth. But as it is now there is no fair place to have the facts displayed to interpret a true value of a candidate. So we must therefore more often than not. Hold our nose and choose the one deemed less detrimental. I look forward to a time when Camelot is truly fiction and not in the mind of the media when promoting a candidate. Back on the topic. I live with a woman that says, “I wish they could live where I did and see how awesome it is to live here. Once I had the chance I feel like I owe this great country my best and what I’ve seen Trump is helping this country more than anyone in my 34 years here!” I will say, she was raised Buddhist, converted to Baptist once here and later in life followed her own spiritual path into Catholicism. I admire her as much as I love her and I know she is speaking her truth as she feels it in her heart and her Circuit Engineer mind. So she has given careful consideration to what she has learned to create and speak her opinion. I know hundreds of people with a similar story. They aren’t shown on any of the charts in this story.
TL;DR
FY;WC
That’s a very long way to say “Everybody’s saying trump will win!”
You said it all with this Ditty: I owe this great country my best and what I’ve seen Trump is helping this country more than anyone in my 34 years here!”
I will say, she was raised Buddhist, converted to Baptist once here and later in life followed her own spiritual path into Catholicism.
Wow!!!
Helping this country, What a deluded and arrogant fucking Bitch…
The Fact she needs to “Find her own spiritual path” using Two of the most Bat-fucking, shit crazy belief systems ever created, expresses the fact she is of a lower intelligence needing someone else to think for her and what the fuck is spiritual anyway, Asshole.
I took a shit earlier and it was as Spiritual an experience as it gets!!!
Once she adapted to this great man and his heroics by means of Bulllshit, mind-Fucking baptist and catholic delusional reasoning, she enshrined him right where he, and You, belong, floating in the Shitter With my Spiritual experience as it were, in an Effluvial Sauna, You Fuck Shit!!!
Tgrdrgn. Thats a lot of words to describe you’re a pussy. You would never show up in my presence. With your eyes open, if you did I would shut them both for you. You would shit all over yourself when I drag your dumb fucking ass thru your own fear. I don’t play fucking games. I am not a pussy I will fucking beat you to goddam oblivion. Show up! You won’t be dumb enough to step up to me. There is no man on this earth I’m afraid of so just position yourself for your correction. You shouldn’t blab off on some shit that in all likelihood could get you, well you know. I have learned long ago, punk little bitches like you are totally fucked. FE!
There is a good chance whoever wins in November will be left holding the bag during our long awaited collapse. Those on the right should be hoping for a Biden victory, just as those on the left should want another Trump term. Covid-19 sped up our timetable and we’re going to pay for our misdeeds sooner than anticipated.
It’s dumb to automatically blame whoever is in office for an economic crash landing that has been bipartisan and decades in the making, but we only accept simplistic explanations as a country. Somebody has to take the blame and one of these two guys will be left standing when the music stops.
Regardless of who occupies the Oval Office, it’s going to be ZIRP/NIRP and the perpetual brrrr sound of the printer from here on out.
The Ticker Guy had a similar analysis. DT is just pissing too many of his base off now that millions of them are unemployed. All for what? 13/10,000% of our population (50,000 deaths / 370 million US).
We are not going anywhere any time soon. The amount of debit we can pile up is still three to four crises away. It won’t be great but we will muddle along. Look at Japan’s debit we have a ways to go. No I don’t agree with our debit habits but its just what is going to happen. I am completely open to some decent solutions!
A few months ago I would have guessed we had another 10 years before our day of reckoning, but now it looks much shorter. The virus truncated the timeline and things are already coming apart at the seams.
The system should have reset back in 2008 and we’ve been living on borrowed time ever since. It’s tough to kick the can with everything leveraged to the moon and a pandemic disruption like this.
Both parties want every Presidential term. You are perhaps wrongly discounting the importance of SCOTUS nominations. It is very likely one liberal RBG is out by 2024, possibly Breyer too. Thomas and Alito are oldest on right at 71 and 70. If Trump is reelected the court will lean right perhaps for more than fifty years. You cannot discount the importance of that.
If Don and Mike don’t start wearing their masks, Ms. Pelosi might be the next president.
You’re right, based on current polls if the election were held today, Trump would probably not win. However, a lot can change between now and November. Biggest change will be if the country reopens and the virus does not make a resurgence before November. That will likely favor Trump. Next biggest change would be that the Dem elites decide Biden is too much of a liability, so they install another candidate at the Convention. This is a complete wildcard but I think it would favor the Dem’s. Finally, there’s the debates. If the Dem elites allow Biden to debate Trump, they are idiots, but they are idiots for making him the front runner at this point, so yeah, they could let him debate Trump. So at the debates, Trump goes, “So Joe, you know the media has come after me with any and every kind of alleged sexual misconduct rumor and accusation, but on this Tara Reade thing, the media has given you a pass. Why do you think that is, Joe?” Joe responds with a minute of incoherent random word salad and then says, “next question, go to the next question”
“the media has come after me”…..with many, many substantiated allegations, and we are sure to see the “grab’em by the pussy” clip in his own voice a time or two. Nice try with the equivalency. It isn’t there.
As a famous politician once said, “A week is a long time in politics” Did anyone practice typing, “Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country”? Either vote, or stay home, inject yourself with some disinfectant and have a nice cup of covfefe.
As feisty as Biden gets sometimes, we might get to se an old man fight!
Biden will wish he hadn’t won.
That’s a good point, assuming he’s cognizant of the outcome!
I said the same about Trump in 2016.
And you will also wish he hadn’t won.
I’m not sure there’s enough Biden left in there to even KNOW whether he won.
You are absolutely right . . .
Whoever he hands the presidency off to by January 2021 will wish he didn’t win.
I’m going to make my vote mean something this year, I’m voting for Ron Paul. At least I will make them physically dig through the ballots to find out who I wrote in. Other than that, all tax issues get a “no”.