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Live Blog

Some polls are expected today that are not yet in. I will add new polls, if any, to the end of this post.

What's Changed?

Not much today. 

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322909098141224961?s=20

Spotlight Iowa

Yesterday Selzer came out with an Iowa poll that has Trump plus 7. 

Whiich Polls Influencing Iowa 2020-11-01

On the basis of A+rated Selzer, Silver moved Trump's odds of winning to 64%. 

Iowa How the Forecast has changed

Polls Today

The polls today are more Biden-friendly.

What Polls Remain?

Strike YouGov off the list. They averaged their polls and made predictions. Silver does not factor in predictions.

The Undecideds 

The undecideds seem to breaking for Trump, but there were far fewer of them. 

Scroll to Continue

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Legal Battle

I do not care who you are for, you should want an honest election where votes are counted. 

Team Trump does not want votes counted. 

Even worse, Texas and Minnesota Republicans purposely allowed procedures and are now fighting them after over 100,000 votes have been cast.

Pennsylvania is in a similar situation due to unclear Supreme Court rulings.

The legal battles are as I described yesterday in Republican Attempt to Steal the Election Has No Bounds

My Fearless Election Forecast and Range of Outcomes

Iowa is suspect but unless things change further I am sticking with my forecast as of October 13.

Please see My Fearless Election Forecast and Range of Outcomes for discussion. 

The three states I highlighted then are the same states that I still have close to 50-50 today: Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia. 

I still see record turnout as favoring Biden and I do not believe that is properly factored in.

Not 2016

This is not 2016 so don't expect a repeat. For discussion, please see Eight Reasons This is Not 2016

New Polls 

None as of 12 Noon November 1.

Mish